Iceagenow Blog Complains that Record Lows Are Being Ignored

[donsutherland1]

While I still do read Bastardi's tweets, I have to say that I've lost a lot of confidence in him as a forecaster after the fiasco of last winter, and now this summer. Recall that in March, he kept going on about how this summer would be cool/below normal in the east and pointed to the Japanese model to support his claim. This summer has absolutely no chance of averaging out below normal. His forecast last winter was a disaster. Personally, I think he's grasping at straws trying to cherry pick, as you say, to prove his hypothesis that the earth is cooling. I don't see next winter being like 1976-77, that's for sure. JB used to be a great forecaster - in fact, it was through watching his videos that I learned a lot about the weather. 2002-2003, as well as the January 2007 flip to cold were his crowning glories, but lately he's gone downhill and has lost a lot of credibility in my eyes.

I don't know JB's exact methodology, even as I know he does a lot of research into possible analogs, so I'll only speak with regard to my own approach to monthly/seasonal forecasting. In general, my forecasts depend on:

1. Trying to reasonably identify the prevalent pattern

2. Trying to translate that pattern based on the larger climate context

With a climatic evolution underway, one cannot automatically assume that a pattern similar to let's say February 1958 will produce the same kind of outcome. Were the climate stable, such an assumption could be stronger. However, as it is warming, one has to pay particular attention to upstream conditions e.g., in the Arctic when assessing the potential for cold. Strong blocking will produce cold outcomes, but the expanse might not be as great nor the magnitude of cold as severe as it was back then. This applies to all seasons.

With regard to what is shaping up to be another warm summer in North America, early on, my partial analysis suggested that 2002 was perhaps a better summer analog than 1976. It wound up being my leading July analog (and I dismissed the 2009 one that showed up as the top analog in the objective ranking in coming up with my summer forecast)

If one assumed a stable climate, 1976 might have been a leading analog. However, it wasn't among my summer analogs. If one assumed a cooling climate (JB has suggested that global temperatures have begun an "erratic" decline, so that is likely an assumption of his), 1976 might even be a leading analog. If one assumed the continuation of a warming climate, as I did, 1976 ranked much less favorably.

FWIW, recent runs of the JAMSTEC have shown less widespread cold for Winter 2012-13 than the earlier runs. In fact, the most recent run now shows North America with a cool outcome in the East and warm across the western 2/3 of the continent (consistent with winter 2002-03). Earlier runs showed cold anomalies across almost all of North America (and the Northern Hemisphere). Even as it is too soon for me to offer winter thoughts (a lot will depend on whether blocking materializes), Nevertheless, even with uncertainty over blocking, I do believe it is a reasonable call to suggest that an extreme 1976-77-style winter is unlikely.

[Jonger]

I was doing some probing of GISS surface stations in Michigan to get a real idea of the local warming versus the rest of the country.

I fully expected metro Detroit to have the highest temp gain since 1880, oddly enough.... it wasn't.

It appears Detroit Metro has warmed about 0.7-1.0 degrees since 1880. The highest gain was the smallest station I could find, obviously this drew my suspicion and I did some googling.

East Tawas Michigan warmed roughly 2 degrees since 1880. What is also included in the photo collection is the actual white standard thermometer housing. Take a look and tell me if this doesn't appear a little tainted over the years with man made structures.

I was able to find out that the plant was moved sometime after 1970, if you google Tom + East Tawas Treatment plant a person is mentioned having worked for the city from the days of the old treatment plant. My guess is that the building was constructed in 1980 and the subsequent rising temp begins almost immediately.

Department of Public Works Superintendent

Tom has been with the City of East Tawas since May 1970 when he began working for the former East Tawas Water Treatment Plant. He then began working for the Department of Public Works and became the Superintendent in 1993.

http://data.giss.nas...num_neighbors=1

**** EDIT *****

It is a Watts study site

I'm only looking at the photo's, nothing more then that...

http://gallery.surfa...?g2_itemId=3848

http://gallery.surfa..._serialNumber=2

http://gallery.surfa..._serialNumber=1

[ORH_wxman]

I was doing some probing of GISS surface stations in Michigan to get a real idea of the local warming versus the rest of the country.

I fully expected metro Detroit to have the highest temp gain since 1880, oddly enough.... it wasn't.

It appears Detroit Metro has warmed about 0.7-1.0 degrees since 1880. The highest gain was the smallest station I could find, obviously this drew my suspicion and I did some googling. What I found was a photo collection of surface stations that does not appear related to Watts or anything biased (that I could tell).

East Tawas Michigan warmed roughly 2 degrees since 1880. What is also included in the photo collection is the actual white standard thermometer housing. Take a look and tell me if this doesn't appear a little tainted over the years with man made structures.

I was able to find out that the plant was moved sometime after 1970, if you google Tom + East Tawas Treatment plant a person is mentioned having worked for the city from the days of the old treatment plant. My guess is that the building was constructed in 1980 and the subsequent rising temp begins almost immediately.

Department of Public Works Superintendent

Tom has been with the City of East Tawas since May 1970 when he began working for the former East Tawas Water Treatment Plant. He then began working for the Department of Public Works and became the Superintendent in 1993.

http://data.giss.nas...num_neighbors=1

**** EDIT *****

It is a Watts study site

I'm only looking at the photo's, nothing more then that...

http://gallery.surfa...?g2_itemId=3848

http://gallery.surfa..._serialNumber=2

http://gallery.surfa..._serialNumber=1

A lot of this type of analysis is very speculative...but not unimportant. However, I think it doesn't have a huge effect on the temperature record as a whole globally. But its worth investigating given many of the IPCC scientists' conduct toward alternative views.

This doesn't mean I think there is a conspiracy, but sometimes suppression of data and viewpoints can lead to a slight bias that might become a bit more significant with time even intentions are good. The politicization of the debate unfortunately has made this problem a little more prevelant. But again, there is no peer reviewed study yet that has really ripped apart the temperature record to deem it unusable. There's been some nitpicks. There's been some corrections in peer reviewed literature too...both to GISS and UAH and both were accepted multiple times.

[Jonger]

A lot of this type of analysis is very speculative...but not unimportant. However, I think it doesn't have a huge effect on the temperature record as a whole globally. But its worth investigating given many of the IPCC scientists' conduct toward alternative views.

This doesn't mean I think there is a conspiracy, but sometimes suppression of data and viewpoints can lead to a slight bias that might become a bit more significant with time even intentions are good. The politicization of the debate unfortunately has made this problem a little more prevelant. But again, there is no peer reviewed study yet that has really ripped apart the temperature record to deem it unusable. There's been some nitpicks. There's been some corrections in peer reviewed literature too...both to GISS and UAH and both were accepted multiple times.

I agree.... I still accept there has been warming since 1880, but getting into specific hundredths of a degree of accuracy based on GISS is a joke.

[Msalgado]

If only someone had debunked this type of analysis several times before. If only.

[ORH_wxman]

If only someone had debunked this type of analysis several times before. If only.

It has been. Same as the other direction though with runaway warming and such. As I posted to Don in my position on AGW...most of the debate lies between the extremes, not the extremes that always make the headlines.

[Msalgado]

I agree that the extreme views of AGW dangers are not based on sound science (generally) but I completely disagree that they make up the majority of the media headlines. The majority of media coverage involves talking about current weather extremes and trying to attribute them to AGW but stories that involve "catastrophic" change are few and far between.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree that the extreme views of AGW dangers are not based on sound science (generally) but I completely disagree that they make up the majority of the media headlines. The majority of media coverage involves talking about current weather extremes and trying to attribute them to AGW but stories that involve "catastrophic" change are few and far between.

Most of the media stories WRT AGW are on the recent heatwaves or warm winters. That is bad science unless you include stats on how likely it is.

I'm sure you remember not long ago that the media came out with stories in 2009-2010 that the exteme cold and snowy winters of the East coast of the US and western Europes were a "paradox" of Global Warming because of the lower sea ice which in turn "produced" the -NAO/-AO....which now seems pretty silly after last year challenged the record low arctic sea ice of 2007 and we had a monster +NAO/AO and a very warm winter. At least accorinding to their short term logic.

So which is it? Is any of this natural variance like has been present in US climatological data, or is it actually a change? Which one is it though? The "paradox" of cold winters? Or the warm snowless winters?

[TerryM]

PIOMAS is out.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

It doesn't look good. If this year continues to track 2011 we'll see another record setting September. I think we've proven this year that vast expanses of thin ice simply melt out rapidly. Volume/thickness is required for us to have any chance of retaining Arctic ice, and we're going to need decades of really cold arctic weather for that to happen.

Once the ice is gone, even for a short period, and the energy formerly spent raising the latent heat of that ice is pumped into the ocean as sensible heat, the game is over.

Terry

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It would appear that, on average, Canada is warming much more than the United States. JB goes on in his tweets about how this still doesn't compare to the summers of the 30s or the summer of 1966 and 1988 for widespread heat, but I can tell you that in Canada, the past few summers and, indeed the past decade on average, has easily surpassed those years. Summer 1966 was not all that hot up in Ontario, unlike last summer and this summer. July 1936 may have seen the hottest absolute temperatures in Toronto, but July 2011 had a mean a few degrees warmer. Now, I agree that the urban heat island can have an effect. Pearson airport in Toronto was in a rural location up until about 50 years ago and is now surrounded by urban sprawl, which could result in higher temperatures, especially overnight lows. Anyone who had a thermomemter in their car can see how the temperature falls at night once you drive out of the city. This being said, Toronto's observations were taken soley downtown until 1937 when the airport opened.

[Jonger]

It would appear that, on average, Canada is warming much more than the United States. JB goes on in his tweets about how this still doesn't compare to the summers of the 30s or the summer of 1966 and 1988 for widespread heat, but I can tell you that in Canada, the past few summers and, indeed the past decade on average, has easily surpassed those years. Summer 1966 was not all that hot up in Ontario, unlike last summer and this summer. July 1936 may have seen the hottest absolute temperatures in Toronto, but July 2011 had a mean a few degrees warmer. Now, I agree that the urban heat island can have an effect. Pearson airport in Toronto was in a rural location up until about 50 years ago and is now surrounded by urban sprawl, which could result in higher temperatures, especially overnight lows. Anyone who had a thermomemter in their car can see how the temperature falls at night once you drive out of the city. This being said, Toronto's observations were taken soley downtown until 1937 when the airport opened.

Detroit hit 90+ degrees 36 times in 1988, so far Detroit has hit it 11 times.... It's hard to say, in 2009 we only hit it like 2 days.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2

[donsutherland1]

It would appear that, on average, Canada is warming much more than the United States.

I believe you're correct. The higher latitudes have, in general, been warming faster.

JB goes on in his tweets about how this still doesn't compare to the summers of the 30s or the summer of 1966 and 1988 for widespread heat, but I can tell you that in Canada, the past few summers and, indeed the past decade on average, has easily surpassed those years. Summer 1966 was not all that hot up in Ontario, unlike last summer and this summer. July 1936 may have seen the hottest absolute temperatures in Toronto, but July 2011 had a mean a few degrees warmer.

Although a number of the summers in the 1930s, especially 1934 and 1936 ranked very high in terms of warmth in the CONUS, a number of recent summers have also been exceptionally warm. 2010 was the 4th warmest summer and 2011 was the 2nd warmest in the U.S. Due to a server issue, the NCDC page from which one can get the ranking of U.S. summers is down, so I can't provide a full list of the 10 or 20 warmest summers. Summer 1966 does not rank in the top 10. Despite scorching heat in late June and early July, that summer had a very cool August.

Unfortunately, as he has gotten more involved in the climate change debate, JB has seemingly developed a tendency to sometimes downplay current warmth. I use "seemingly" as I haven't regularly followed his tweets, but have irregularly looked (mostly to see what he has been saying during weather extremes). I have regularly followed him since the outbreak of the current episode of heat in late June.

For example, back in March JB downplayed the historic "Summer in March" heat (possibly the most anomalous weather event in the instrument record in North America, with multiple areas seeing high temperatures 4 and even 5 standard deviations above normal; some cities wound up beating all-time April highs, too). In one tweet, JB remarked:

Fact is for the nation as a whole 1910 blows this away. Fact is in spite of our warmth, the planet is cool.. Fact is this is not AGW

When the data was tallied up, March 2012 was the warmest March on record in the U.S. In fact, it shattered the 1910 record by 0.5°F. With all due respect, beating a national record by a full 0.5° is 'blowing away' the old record (1910).

In addition, March saw 7,755 daily record maximum temperature and 586 monthly record maximum temperature records tied or broken. In addition, March saw 7,517 daily highest minimum temperature and 511 monthly highest minimum temperature records tied or broken.

Canada, too, experienced the historic heat with many daily and monthly records being shattered, some on multiple days.

Also, the March 2012 global land and sea anomaly was a warm one, not a cold one.

In any case, it appears that JB has dramatically departed from past practice when he used to discuss the weather and leverage his exceptional recognition of synoptic patterns in doing so. Perhaps he believes that an increased focus on the contrarian climate position will allow him to differentiate himself from his peers? Perhaps he wants to assert that natural cycles remain important? If so, there are better ways to go about doing that.

I'm not sure what the calculation is, because meteorology is not the same thing as climate science. I don't believe WeatherBell is competing in the climate science field or seeking to do so, but then again one has to be cautious here. We don't know who WeatherBell's clients are nor their needs.

What appears to be more clear is that he has apparently shifted his focus, at least in part, from an area in which he enjoyed a comparative advantage (understanding of synoptic patterns and their evolution/teleconnections) into one in which he is at a decided disadvantage. The points he's made regarding climate often are at odds with the data, statistical relationships, and the literature in the field.

[Jonger]

We will be at (12) 90+ degree days after today, this is obviously going to be the hottest year in US history, worldwide it won't though.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2

[donsutherland1]

We will be at (12) 90+ degree days after today, this is obviously going to be the hottest year in US history, worldwide it won't though.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW 2

IMO, it's still too soon to be sure whether the U.S. will set a new record this year. A lot can happen in 6 months. Worldwide, we're coming out of a La Niña, so I expect 2012 to be warmer than 2011 (GISS and NCDC datasets), but short of the record. Were the emerging El Niño to reach a magnitude similar to the 2002-03 and 2009-10 events, the global record might be challenged or surpassed next year.

[ben4vols]

In any case, it appears that JB has dramatically departed from past practice when he used to discuss the weather and leverage his exceptional recognition of synoptic patterns in doing so. Perhaps he believes that an increased focus on the contrarian climate position will allow him to differentiate himself from his peers? Perhaps he wants to assert that natural cycles remain important? If so, there are better ways to go about doing that.

I'm not sure what the calculation is, because meteorology is not the same thing as climate science. I don't believe WeatherBell is competing in the climate science field or seeking to do so, but then again one has to be cautious here. We don't know who WeatherBell's clients are nor their needs.

What appears to be more clear is that he has apparently shifted his focus, at least in part, from an area in which he enjoyed a comparative advantage (understanding of synoptic patterns and their evolution/teleconnections) into one in which he is at a decided disadvantage. The points he's made regarding climate often are at odds with the data, statistical relationships, and the literature in the field.

Why does he have to have a motive? Perhaps JB just doesn't buy the AGW alarmism like many other smart people in his profession and has decided to speak out. He is an outspoken guy by nature and he doesn't seem like one who will sit on the sidelines will others are speaking contrary to the truth (at least in his mind).

[donsutherland1]

Why does he have to have a motive? Perhaps JB just doesn't buy the AGW alarmism like many other smart people in his profession and has decided to speak out. He is an outspoken guy by nature and he doesn't seem like one who will sit on the sidelines will others are speaking contrary to the truth (at least in his mind).

In no way do I mean to suggest that JB has a bad motive. People are, in general, rational and purposeful. Hence, people typically have reasons for their choices and decisions. JB appears to have made a decision to shift, at least in part, the focus of his discussions away from meteorology and toward climate.

[WxUSAF]

Most of the media stories WRT AGW are on the recent heatwaves or warm winters. That is bad science unless you include stats on how likely it is.

Yup...the media never gets this right and even some science advocates don't. At the conference I mentioned last week, Bill Nye the Science Guy hosted an evening discussion open to the public. His opening slides showed some big recent tornadoes (Joplin, Dallas, etc.) and he said "this didn't happen when I was a kid". I groaned...

Extreme weather events become MORE COMMON in a warmed climate, but that doesn't mean they don't occur/wouldn't occur if the climate was unaltered.

[WxUSAF]

Why does he have to have a motive? Perhaps JB just doesn't buy the AGW alarmism like many other smart people in his profession and has decided to speak out. He is an outspoken guy by nature and he doesn't seem like one who will sit on the sidelines will others are speaking contrary to the truth (at least in his mind).

JB said CO2 wasn't a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere. I mean...come on...that is meteorology 101 stuff. If he can't understand that, everything else he says is completely invalidated. Pointing out record lows doesn't invalidate anything.

[ben4vols]

JB said CO2 wasn't a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere. I mean...come on...that is meteorology 101 stuff. If he can't understand that, everything else he says is completely invalidated. Pointing out record lows doesn't invalidate anything.

I don't agree with him there either. He did however call for a shutdown of the tornado season when the alarmists were up in arms over the early start and he nailed it. He also called for an early start to the Cane season with in close development and then an average to below average season after that (so far he got the 1st half right). I'm not a JB basher or cult member. The guy has made some colossal winter busts (which is where I follow him more closely) but he has also made some really good calls. Overall I like the guy because he has passion for what he does and he doesn't beat around the bush.

[donsutherland1]

In Message #115, I noted:

Although a number of the summers in the 1930s, especially 1934 and 1936 ranked very high in terms of warmth in the CONUS, a number of recent summers have also been exceptionally warm. 2010 was the 4th warmest summer and 2011 was the 2nd warmest in the U.S.

2010 was actually the 6th warmest summer in the CONUS. Now that the server has been restored, here's the list of the 10 warmest summers:

1. 1936 74.64°F

2. 2011 74.49°F

3. 2006 74.36°F

4. 1934 74.18°F

5. 2002 73.96°F

6. 2010 73.95°F

7. 1988 73.92°F

8. 2007 73.90°F

9. 2003 73.53°F

10. 1933 73.51°F

The summers beginning in 2000 account for 6 of the 10 warmest summers (the 2002-11 period) in the CONUS and 9 of the 20 warmest summers. In contrast, the 1930s account for 3 of the 10 warmest summers and 5 of the 20 warmest summers.

[SVT450R]

It seems as though anytime someone posts something important , and on topic, the trolls come out and spam the topic.

We are headed for 3,000 km^3 of MYI at the at the start of the freeze this fall, a 25% loss in one year.

More like try posting it in the correct thread.

[Vergent]

More like try posting it in the correct thread.

My bad.

[beneficii]

Yup...the media never gets this right and even some science advocates don't. At the conference I mentioned last week, Bill Nye the Science Guy hosted an evening discussion open to the public. His opening slides showed some big recent tornadoes (Joplin, Dallas, etc.) and he said "this didn't happen when I was a kid". I groaned...

Extreme weather events become MORE COMMON in a warmed climate, but that doesn't mean they don't occur/wouldn't occur if the climate was unaltered.

Ja, it seems that the media is reluctant to put out that line of argumentation, even though it makes the most sense out of all of them. I guess they think the public won't understand it or will find it too complicated? The only problem is that it makes them very open to suggestion from denialists who will say, See, it doesn't make any sense, this global warming? They're all just a bunch of liberals/socialists who are trying to erect big government over your heads!

[Msalgado]

***I tried to due the multiquote and failed***

1. Media coverage of the increased frequency of heat waves or warm winters is anything but junk science. When multiple studies are coming out showing statistical analysis of recent extreme heat events and how the increased frequency is itself an anomaly how are you going to say that reporting around this is an extreme view point?

2. Coverage over the study that showed that increased sea ice melt might cause an increased frequency of winters with increased precipitation and cold over sections of the US is not something that is invalidated because one winter didn't pan out that way. Also, I don't believe the coverage over such studies in any way shape or form made up a sizeable portion of the overall coverage about AGW.

3. I myself cringe when stories from the media crop up regarding attribution of tornadoes or hurricanes and their relationships with AGW. I think we can all agree that this is largely the biggest segment of science stories that are simply "bad".

I contend - and honestly it means little without actual quantification - that the majority of AGW stories center around heat waves and warm winters as was stated above. However, the increased frequency of heat waves or their increased severity is something that is being put forth in quite a bit of peer reviewed literature and has been for quite some time so I in no way believe this is junk science or an extreme viewpoint.

[bluewave]

It would appear that, on average, Canada is warming much more than the United States. JB goes on in his tweets about how this still doesn't compare to the summers of the 30s or the summer of 1966 and 1988 for widespread heat, but I can tell you that in Canada, the past few summers and, indeed the past decade on average, has easily surpassed those years. Summer 1966 was not all that hot up in Ontario, unlike last summer and this summer. July 1936 may have seen the hottest absolute temperatures in Toronto, but July 2011 had a mean a few degrees warmer. Now, I agree that the urban heat island can have an effect. Pearson airport in Toronto was in a rural location up until about 50 years ago and is now surrounded by urban sprawl, which could result in higher temperatures, especially overnight lows. Anyone who had a thermomemter in their car can see how the temperature falls at night once you drive out of the city. This being said, Toronto's observations were taken soley downtown until 1937 when the airport opened.

The winter warming has been the most dramatic.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=en&n=24F82736-1

http://www.ec.gc.ca/...En&n=8C03D32A-1

The temperature trend graph below shows that winter temperatures have been at or above normal since 1997. The red dashed linear trend line indicates winter temperatures have warmed over the last 65 years by 3.2°C.

[Msalgado]

Are there any studies out there that take a look at situations where GHG are obviously a stronger forcing than solar radiation? The discussion of Canada made me think about that because winter temps at higher latitudes would obviously be more dependent on GHG forcing over direct solar.

[Mallow]

Are there any studies out there that take a look at situations where GHG are obviously a stronger forcing than solar radiation? The discussion of Canada made me think about that because winter temps at higher latitudes would obviously be more dependent on GHG forcing over direct solar.

Anyone who still thinks direct solar forcing changes are responsible for a large fraction of the warming (here, I'm not talking about "cosmic rays" and other possible feedbacks, even though I don't buy those either) is being willfully ignorant/dishonest.

[Msalgado]

Anyone who still thinks direct solar forcing changes are responsible for a large fraction of the warming (here, I'm not talking about "cosmic rays" and other possible feedbacks, even though I don't buy those either) is being willfully ignorant/dishonest.

Don't disagree one bit but I still see quite some usefulness in quantifying the type of situation I outlined above.

[bluewave]

Don't disagree one bit but I still see quite some usefulness in quantifying the type of situation I outlined above.

A new study adds a bit more understanding as to why we have seen the magnitude of winter warming in the Arctic recently.

http://www.misu.su.se/~gsven/PBL/Bintanja_etal_2011.pdf

[NEOH]

Most of the media stories WRT AGW are on the recent heatwaves or warm winters. That is bad science unless you include stats on how likely it is.

I'm sure you remember not long ago that the media came out with stories in 2009-2010 that the exteme cold and snowy winters of the East coast of the US and western Europes were a "paradox" of Global Warming because of the lower sea ice which in turn "produced" the -NAO/-AO....which now seems pretty silly after last year challenged the record low arctic sea ice of 2007 and we had a monster +NAO/AO and a very warm winter. At least accorinding to their short term logic.

So which is it? Is any of this natural variance like has been present in US climatological data, or is it actually a change? Which one is it though? The "paradox" of cold winters? Or the warm snowless winters?

Good post. Really surprised to see no one reply to this.