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July 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


metalicwx366

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Great picture!

Thanks, Calc! And amazing photo....heck, beyond amazing. I hope you have the sense to frame it. You don't get those so very often, unless you are Stieglitz. That one is ready to show!

Thanks, guys! I'm not quite the photographer that MM is, so I have to enjoy the good ones that I get.

I managed to gather 0.21 inch of rain in the bucket yesterday from a pleasant shower. Not too much, but not too bad either. It beats the alternative of no rain. I also made it up to 98 yesterday. Looking forward to the changes coming next week...

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At 9 AM today, Katl/Kahn were 3/4 cooler than 24 hours earlier. Perhaps this is a good sign that neither will reach 100 as they did yesterday. Also, GFS 6 Z 850 projections for 0Z this evening are cooler than yesterday's runs showed.

Edit: ATL/AHN are a whopping 6 cooler at 10 AM vs 24 hours earlier.

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screwed again last night here too...shocking I know. Outflow boundary from storms in the upstate/ne ga pushed through (was quite strong too..30mph gusts) and formed a severe storm just a few miles south of here (looked quite impressive too) Got nothing here as usual.

What I wouldn't give for a hurricane or a stalled out tropical storm hitting the panhandle and moving into north central/nw ga. Only way I see I ever getting any rain at this point.

Oh and hit 100 yesterday again...yet another "shocker". Only some early forming cumulus kept it from being hotter I'm sure since it's rare to see me and atlanta have the same high temperature.

Right to the South of Lake Murray, SC got screwed also. All the storms once again fell apart as they crossed the lake or went around us. Our heat index values were over 100 here throughout the day yesterday on 7/5.

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The longer-range pattern still looks very favorable as the nasty ridge finally retrogrades and the entire SE gets under weak mid-level troughiness. Highs in ATL after Monday of next week should be in the 80s with a decent chance of rain most if not every day. A welcome change indeed.

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Right to the South of Lake Murray, SC got screwed also. All the storms once again fell apart as they crossed the lake or went around us. Our heat index values were over 100 here throughout the day yesterday on 7/5.

Not long after I made that post, the storm really exploded into a severe one and indeed ffc issued a warning for it. Yesterday, I was getting gas in crawford, about 15 miles east of athens, and he said he got golf ball size hail and over 1.50 inches of rain. Said it put some marks on his car. And then yesterday, it looks like some of the same areas got yet more rain (although nothing like that night, at least it looked like on radar).

I did, somehow, manage to get the leftovers of a dying t-shower yesterday evening and got a whopping 0.25. I know I should be glad to get something but good grief.

The longer-range pattern still looks very favorable as the nasty ridge finally retrogrades and the entire SE gets under weak mid-level troughiness. Highs in ATL after Monday of next week should be in the 80s with a decent chance of rain most if not every day. A welcome change indeed.

Yeah, it looks a lot more promising. Of course with the way I've been getting the 12 inch you know what all the time, It's probably more promising for everyone else lol. At least it won't be so damn hot.

Speaking of hot, I was talking to my uncle last night and he told me something I have never heard of before. He has a black gum tree in his yard and he told me the heat completely killed the western facing side of the tree. He said most of the leaves were burnt/dead, from top to bottom, while the side that was in the shade/facing the east was not. That is completely unbelievable. I plan on going out today, looking at it, and taking a picture of it..if it's like he described.

I saw various broad leave plants that were completely wilted/killed from the heat (it wasn't the lack of rain because this only happened after we started the heat wave and they were thriving before hand..and they were in the freaking shade). I have also heard of people having their corn completely killed/damaged/burnt from this heat...again, although wilted due to the dryness which isn't unusual in hot or dry weather, their tops were completely killed or the entire thing..which is unusual.

But to think of a tree, which has been there for a long time being burnt like he described, is unbelievable to me. I certainly look forward to looking at it. If it looks impressive, which he said it was, I will post a picture of it here.

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The Moles are trying to send those to Justin. That electromagnetic anit-rain net encompassing him is strong though. Almost as strong as the one I had. Been a nice day in the 80's, but very humid. I almost think the 100 degrees with low humidity was easier to take, but only almost :) 86., 85.3, 85.2. I picked up a total of .3 last night. T

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Day 3 looks interesting for us NC/N SC/N GA folk.

aIeOv.gif

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN APPALACHIANS TO

COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...DAY-2 ESTABLISHMENT OF STG WRN RIDGE/ERN

TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH RATE OF ERN

HEIGHT FALLS WILL DIMINISH. SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL

TRAVERSE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM MB SEWD OVER GREAT LAKES

AND MID-ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. MEANWHILE...BROAD...WEAK AND MESSY

500-MB CYCLONE...PERHAPS WITH MORE THAN ONE LOW HEIGHT CENTER...WILL

LINGER OVER GULF COAST STATES.

AT SFC...SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL

DRIFT SWD OVER CAROLINAS...WHILE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM

S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY AND SRN OK/NW TX. EFFECTIVE

FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE MODULATED BY INTERVENING CONVECTIVE

PROCESSES. PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN NC/SERN VA

SWWD ACROSS SC/ERN GA PIEDMONT.

...SERN CONUS...

SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF

SFC FRONT FROM SRN APPALACHIANS EWD TO COAST...WITH AID FROM TROUGH

AND NEARBY OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW

WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FRONTAL POSITION THAT ON

DAY-2...SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR DENSELY CONCENTRATED/HIGH-BUOYANCY

MULTICELLULAR TSTMS EXISTS IN PROXIMITY TO THESE PROBABLE FOCI TO

WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES. FAVORABLE SFC

DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY AHEAD OF FRONT DURING DAY...WITH STG

INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE POTENTIALLY

3000-4500 J/KG. SVR POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL FARTHER W

ALONG FRONT WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

ONCE AGAIN...S OF FRONT...BROAD CORRIDOR OF SERN CONUS TO CENTRAL TX

WILL BE SUBJECT TO SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS IN

CLUSTERS...AS STG INSOLATION ACTS ON RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

EXPECT CONTRIBUTION TO DESTABILIZATION ALSO FROM AREAS OF SUBTLY

ENHANCED ASCENT ALOFT...ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT WILL BE

EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK CYCLONE ALOFT. THIS FAR IN

ADVANCE...SPECIFIC LOCATIONS OF MESOSCALE FOCI THAT WOULD

CONCENTRATE SVR POTENTIAL ARE TOO UNCERTAIN FOR CATEGORICAL

OUTLOOK...BUT DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

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Wow.....even in the Mnts it's really uncomfortable today. Current obs from Weaverville is 101.6° (Sun aided) DP is 74.9°! Really, really muggy for this part of the world. It almost feels like the beach outside without the seabreeze.

Not to bad up were i live today. We hit about 88 with a steady breeze. Grass needs mowed from the recent rains. One more day and then beautiful weather for a least a week.

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Local guys are calling for possibly 3-5" of rain in our neck of the woods btwn Mon night and Thursday

From the afternoon Raleigh discussion.

HPC FIVE DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ADVERTISES WIDESPREAD FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF

RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... AND THIS IS

REASONABLE.

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