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July 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


metalicwx366

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At this point I can't even find any humor in this. The radar shows a storm sitting right over my house and I have nothing but sprinkles.

Well that is the storm upwind from me. I was hoping things would hold out till later tonight after the fireworks display. I got totally shafted yesterday minus a few sprinkles. It would be nice to hit the jackpot tonight but later please. :)

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Nothing today, yet, and just like yesterday, hearing everyone elses' thunder. That once potent Wake Co. storm is washing out. The only difference between today and yesterday is the outflows that knocked the temp down from 97 to 88.

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Thanks, DC!

Cheston, I can say once they do find you, they come back for more :) I've just gotten a severe storm warning, for one just up near Hampton, and headed in. It's feast or fame, so I intend to feast. This time I'll have a camera. 21 days with no rain, then two in 24 hours. T

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Thanks, DC!

Cheston, I can say once they do find you, they come back for more :) I've just gotten a severe storm warning, for one just up near Hampton, and headed in. It's feast or fame, so I intend to feast. This time I'll have a camera. 21 days with no rain, then two in 24 hours. T

Tony, I finally got a little something. I'm at my parents house for the 4th and we got a pretty good rain. The larger of my gardens is over here on the family land and my vegetables are looking pretty good now. I'm not sure how Emerson fared but my neighbor said it only rained for 10 minutes. I hope it was a hard 10 minutes.

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When I was maybe 5 or 7 I was scared by a storm, so my grandmother took me out on the front porch and watched the storm with me, and showed me it probably wouldn't kill me. It was a brick porch with brick pillars and screen wire, so it was, and felt, substantial, and we hunkered down behind a corner, and got soaked while the thunder seemed to shake the very bricks, and the lighten crashed right over head. It was dark as night, in mid day, and the lightening blinked on and off like a monster, world sized strobe. The wind made a fearce noise, and the rain fell sideways, and from all directions. I can still see it today. She held her arm around me, getting soaked and told me about the wind, and where the thunder came from, and the nature of lightening.. and see the wind whipping those trees this way and that, well, thats the wind blowing from all quarters. And she talked about her father, a sea captain, and how he would be out on deck in this while he was sailing. By the time that storm was over I was no longer afraid, but fascinated, and have been ever since. I get scared by storms, on occasion, but I'm rarely truly frightened by one. A good thunderstorm only amazes me with it's power, and scares me when it throws lightening at me a few feet away, but I'll go out into one in a heartbeat :) Thanks to my dear grandmother, who made the weather part of my life a special part, when I was a wee tyke.

A truly beautiful story, sir. Thanks for sharing this. I think I have new signature material.

No rain for me today, but I saw evidence of it all around. We all seem to have some version of that same story: if it's not one person, it's another lamenting the absence of rain when everyone else seemingly cashed in.

Fireworks tonight were really good at the Hickory Crawdads stadium. $3 for parking and all the drinks and popcorn you could want was offered by the large church next door. I'm pretty sure half of Hickory took them up on the offer, because it took me 35 minutes just to exit the parking lot. And, I was near the front of the lot.

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This may not be weather, but it is definitely an observation that I made this evening (in the sky, nonetheless). Thus, I think it fits in this forum...

I tried out the fireworks setting on my camera and just snapped away while my eyes were focused on the sky. It was kind of fun checking out what I managed to capture after the show was over. I was actually quite surprised to find this image in amongst the lot. All too often the images were blurred (I didn't have the benefit of a tripod) or taken at the wrong instance to really capture the best moment. Anyway, I thought I'd share...

post-4420-0-91279100-1341460929_thumb.jp

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An old-fashioned summertime thunderstorm blew up over Unicoi County today and provided pre-dusk fireworks with 40 MPH wind gusts and a great lightning show. The .9" rainfall total in >45 minutes was welcome, too. Guess who will finally be mowing tomorrow!

Happy (late) Independence Day, all.

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Northwestern North Carolina...keep an eye on the Ohio Valley convection. Models did a good job picking up this feature and they have it going all night long southward...

day_None_anim.gif

That particular MCS seems to be dying out, but this one in the Great Lakes region may be a feature to watch:

post-1466-0-72046700-1341465313_thumb.pn

This may not be weather, but it is definitely an observation that I made this evening (in the sky, nonetheless). Thus, I think it fits in this forum...

I tried out the fireworks setting on my camera and just snapped away while my eyes were focused on the sky. It was kind of fun checking out what I managed to capture after the show was over. I was actually quite surprised to find this image in amongst the lot. All too often the images were blurred (I didn't have the benefit of a tripod) or taken at the wrong instance to really capture the best moment. Anyway, I thought I'd share...

post-4420-0-91279100-1341460929_thumb.jp

Great picture!

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Officially, a trace yesterday from a decaying outflow boundary. Unofficially, it was approximately 3,500 tiny droplets spread over the property. Crunch continues.

I'll be 2 weeks on Friday since we have had any rain... well except last saturday's 0.09" and a T this week. Things are getting dry and baked pretty quickly.

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Folks,

KATL/KAHN are, as of 10 AM, a whopping 6/5 warmer than 24 hours earlier. Also, skies are clearer in general. Yesterday's highs were 98/98. The 850's are forecasted to reach a quite warm +22.5 C to +23 C as of 0Z this evening. That tells me that assuming no sudden major increase in cloud cover between now and 3 PM or so, both cities will threaten reaching (or even exceeding especially at KAHN) 100 today. The 6Z GFS per MeteoStar has 102 forecasted for KAHN today, which seems quite doable. It has "only" 97 for KATL, but that appears to be underdone. We'll see what happens. Tomorrow, 850's are projected to be even slightly warmer at ~+23 C at both cities for the highest (0Z). So, 100+ for tomorrow looks quite doable. The 6Z GFS per MeteoStar actually has KATL/KAHN at 102/103!

Remember what role I'm playing and put the guns down, please. Somebody's got to do it, folks.

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mcd1404.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1211 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...NRN GA...FAR WRN SC...WRN NC...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051711Z - 051845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS

THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER CORES SHOULD

BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW ISSUANCE

REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS HAS BECOME

MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING

MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG IN ERN AL TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN ERN

TN. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S F ACROSS

MUCH OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW

ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL

WIND PROFILES AND WEAK NLY FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW SWD

MOVING PULSE STORMS. THE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED

WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012

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Congrats. Cheston. I'm happy for you, buddy!! I got the finger again last evening. The sure fire hit, just a few miles up the road, split, and dissapated, and gave me two drops and some wind :) But my ground is still very wet from two days ago, which is so very cool, lol.

Thanks, Calc! And amazing photo....heck, beyond amazing. I hope you have the sense to frame it. You don't get those so very often, unless you are Stieglitz :) That one is ready to show!

Larry, I won't be the least surprised to see 100's again. My experience down here has been, if it gets to 100 near, or over the 4th, it will get to 100 again...and woebetide when Aug. rolls around. It isn't always like that, but is quite often. Tony

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The latest HRRR does have storms moving south into north GA by 0-3Z. I hope so, could use more rain.

Also, it really looks like a major pattern change coming up with the mean trough setting up over the east, should be much cooler and wetter next week- :clap: :clap:

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Tough call there in Middle Tenn. However the Tri Cities are getting slammed. I'd also love to be in Knoxville a little later. Jury is out here in Chatt. A lot can happen from falling apart to bowing out. The bow out lacks a good wind push aloft or the kind of shortwave you'd need. No real LLJ feeding them either. They are just moving toward the heat and humidity to their southwest. These storms remind me of stuff you see in the Plains gravitating to the theta-e juice. I'll fade the organized winds, but an energetic boundary layer should promote some local damaging winds. At least it will be more exciting than typical summer thunderstorms. Probably best it lacks ingredients for extreme excitement. Looks like a happy medium. Enjoy!

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Folks,

KATL/KAHN are, as of 10 AM, a whopping 6/5 warmer than 24 hours earlier. Also, skies are clearer in general. Yesterday's highs were 98/98. The 850's are forecasted to reach a quite warm +22.5 C to +23 C as of 0Z this evening. That tells me that assuming no sudden major increase in cloud cover between now and 3 PM or so, both cities will threaten reaching (or even exceeding especially at KAHN) 100 today. The 6Z GFS per MeteoStar has 102 forecasted for KAHN today, which seems quite doable. It has "only" 97 for KATL, but that appears to be underdone. We'll see what happens. Tomorrow, 850's are projected to be even slightly warmer at ~+23 C at both cities for the highest (0Z). So, 100+ for tomorrow looks quite doable. The 6Z GFS per MeteoStar actually has KATL/KAHN at 102/103!

Remember what role I'm playing and put the guns down, please. Somebody's got to do it, folks.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

0432 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1948.

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The latest HRRR does have storms moving south into north GA by 0-3Z. I hope so, could use more rain.

Also, it really looks like a major pattern change coming up with the mean trough setting up over the east, should be much cooler and wetter next week- :clap: :clap:

It's a given fact. I'll be at the beach all week.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

444 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SO

FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 98 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD OF 98 DEGREES...

NOW LAST SET IN 1990.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

0432 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1948.

I believe that makes 4 days of 100+ so far in Atlanta. Pretty incredible considering it's only July 5th. I can't remember the last time we had 4 days of 100+ by this date. At this rate we could have 15-20 days of 100+ by the end of summer.

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