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July 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


metalicwx366

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Here's the 500mb anomaly pattern so far this summer. You can see the ridging south of the Aleutians (positive anomalies), troughing in the northeast Pacific (negative anomalies), large-scale ridging over the Rockies and midwest, and troughing off the northeast coast. There's also a solid -NAO signature with positive anomalies over Greenland and west. Also, if you watched the British Open coverage, they talked about how it has been cool and wet there (solid negative anomalies over northern Europe). The southeast has been sandwiched between the midwest ridging and the troughing off the northeast coast, which has led to beneficial rains for some, and temperatures around normal (in general). After a brief warm-up Thurs and Fri, we get right back into the persistant pattern as we go into the weekend and next week....i.e. no massive heat ridges on the horizon.

summer12.gif

summer12temp.gif

Looking back to last summer, here's the 500mb pattern for the same time period. Overall, it's similar to 2012, except that all of the ridges and troughs are shifted east. This puts the southeast closer to the positive anomalies (more ridging), which led to a hotter/drier pattern.

summer11.gif

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TRI sets all-time monthly rainfall record. Stands @ 12.08 inches as of early afternoon for July. Rivers are muddy. If June wasn't dry, we'd be rowing a boat to work at this rate. Foothills nailed July's precip forecast and then some. Brave to forecast above normal rainfall in the midst of a drought - well, used to be a drought here.

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KTRI is up to 12.08" for the month of July, and 30.07" for the year. For those playing along at home, that's +8.45" on the month, +6.15" on the year. Unreal.

Just now saw your post. Amazing really after the way June ended. From furnace to frog weather. Saw some pics on Rob Williams' FB page of the Nolichucky. It's moving!

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I've been watching that line of storms move ever so slowly in my direction.It's unbelievable how mby has been missed :lol:

That line of storms yesterday missed us NE of St. Matthews too buckeye . It redeveloped about 3 miles south of town with some intense lightning and pushed all the way south to the coast. Looks like we are in for a hot one today and more of the same on Friday as well. NWS CAE just bumped our high temp up to 101 with the heatindex reaching close to 110 or above.

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Daily failure update: some storms developed in the afternoon, headed ESE. Fell apart before getting to Durham and reformed literally 2 to 3 miles east of me and went on to give Wake County a drubbing. This is becoming a farce.

Boy, that sounds familiar. :axe:

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Yea, I might think so too... but that would be one heck of a stream, lol.

It's awfully hot here today, especially for 5pm. 98/71 106F @ KILM, 96/78 114F imby (UNCW), and 92-93F on the pier which reports every six minutes.

Just stepped outside and it's godawful out there. A breeze has picked up but it's blowing like a blast furnace. Not a soul out there either... no dog walkers, skateboarders, bike riders... all are hunkered down with their air conditioners, lol.

Cheers!

let's hope the Convective Cap can get broken today Mencken, (sry folks been away for awhile)...

It's gonna be a close if not a record setter today & tomorrow..

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That line of storms yesterday missed us NE of St. Matthews too buckeye . It redeveloped about 3 miles south of town with some intense lightning and pushed all the way south to the coast. Looks like we are in for a hot one today and more of the same on Friday as well. NWS CAE just bumped our high temp up to 101 with the heatindex reaching close to 110 or above.

I'm not looking forward to 100+ degree heat again :angry: CAE doesn't think we'll break another record, but it will be a close one :lol:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH WEAK

SURFACE RIDGING PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY

LOCATIONS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOTH CAE AND AGS FOR TODAY

IS 102 DEGREES...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO LEAN AGAINST BREAKING

THOSE RECORDS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A STRONG TRIGGER FOR

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO WILL

KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS.

HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ADDRESS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 109

RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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let's hope the Convective Cap can get broken today Mencken, (sry folks been away for awhile)...

It's gonna be a close if not a record setter today & tomorrow..

Hey, hey; welcome back neighbor!

Anything that breaks the cap should be violent but I don't see it happening on Cape Fear. The good stuff has all been inland this summer.

Have you noticed there's something "wrong" with the sea breeze this year? It's not acting like summers past. My area is usually quite breezy and that sea breeze often brings pockets of notably cooler air with it but I haven't seen it this summer.

I use the close-up satellite loop here http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/ to examine the sea breeze boundary and have noticed it arrives later in the day than summers past, and when it does arrive it struggles to move inland. Cape Fear itself also seems to disrupt it.

Furthermore, the sea breeze seems to have very little vertical penetration. Instead of generating thundershowers and thunderstorms, it seems only to generate a small cloud line. Inland thunderstorms roaring towards the coast suffer from sudden death syndrome as soon as they cross that line; hence our amazing dry spell.

We can see today is going to be "another one of those days."

KILM at 10am is already 90/77 with a heat index of 103F.

My back yard (UNCW; closer to the coast) at 10:30am is showing 91/80 for a heat index of 109F.

We're in line to break a whole bunch of records this month....

P.S. Did you see Johnny Mercer Pier got up to 96F day before yesterday? And that's over the frickn' ocean!

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Loads of towering, bright white cumulus have filled the sky now that the sea breeze boundary moved through....but the humidity!

1PM: 94/82 for 116F here at UNCW while 96/75 for 108F farther inland at KILM. Just came in from a short errand.. gasp!

2PM: 97/82 for 121F and utterly insufferable outside. One step out my front door and its like entering another world. A few miles farther inland, KILM is a cooler and drier, mostly cloudy 95/77 for 110F.

6PM: 92/81 HX 113F UNCW area. 93/78 HX 109F at KILM. That's awfully hot for the coast at this hour.

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These upper 90's really need to stop now. It's 95 at Hartsfield right now, looking like another 97+ degree day.

The nights are humid and nasty. Hartsfield hasn't been below 70 degrees since 6/28 the day before the heat wave hit.

What a fake out summer gave us this go around. It looked to be not so bad this year early on but look at what we got. All-time record breaking heat, lots of rains and temps sizzling in the upper 90's to around 100 in between.

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These upper 90's really need to stop now. It's 95 at Hartsfield right now, looking like another 97+ degree day.

The nights are humid and nasty. Hartsfield hasn't been below 70 degrees since 6/28 the day before the heat wave hit.

What a fake out summer gave us this go around. It looked to be not so bad this year early on but look at what we got. All-time record breaking heat, lots of rains and temps sizzling in the upper 90's to around 100 in between.

There is no such thing as a cooler than normal summer anymore. 3rd straight brutal summer and I'm hearing that August will be above normal as well. I'm not sure if there have ever been 3 straight summers in a row as hot as the last 3 have been. And to make things worse, we get all this humidity without any rain ! What's the point of having tons of humidity if it's not going to rain ?

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101 was the high yesterday at CAE just shy of the record. More heat again today, but there is a slightly higher chance of some thunderstorms to cool things off :D

Hey my friend :) It was 98 here yesterday but I swear it felt a lot hotter...even though dewpoints weren't extremely high for this time of year. Sort of strange it felt so much more muggier given the dewpoints.

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Hey my friend :) It was 98 here yesterday but I swear it felt a lot hotter...even though dewpoints weren't extremely high for this time of year. Sort of strange it felt so much more muggier given the dewpoints.

Lookout!! :wub:

The thickness of the air has been miserable this summer. :( Unlike the past couple of years where hot/dry/low dp's on a nw breeze ruled. At least this area is much closer to normal in the rainfall department than the past several years, but these 100+ degree days are getting old already and it's not even Aug. yet :lol:

87 over 76 right now and its disgusting outside. Heat index already flirting with 100 at 10:30am and that blows!

88/74 here :angry:

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More records falling over here in extreme southeast N.C.

This morning's low of 81F triggered a "greatest number of 80F+ lows in one month" record. KILM hit 101F before 2PM breaking the old daily record of 100F. By the end of the month we're going to have a handful of new all-time records. In fact, we're crushing the old record for "hottest month ever recorded."

Heat indexes are running about 110F at the immediate coast and 116F here in the center of Cape Fear. I've been out three times today doing errands on foot and on my bicycle. It's awfully hot, that's all I gotta say.

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Got my first rain in 8 days. Ten minutes of scattered drops in full sun. Not very inspiring. Last night the storm to the south split in two before it got here, leaving me some "heat" lightening, which was from a storm near Fayetteville, and some thunder only my dog could hear :) I'm beginning to worry the climate change I've been wanting is already here, and instead of a new ice age, it is going to be hot and dry for the next 30 years, making last winter look "cold", and leading archeologists of the future to wonder where we all went, when we suddenly disappeared in the early 21 century, lol. T

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Currently 94 with a heat index of 100 and wind gusts up to 40-50mph with this outflow boundary. Really windy out here!

Also the 3rd heat advisory in a row.

Edit: Had some heavy rain and lots of wind for a few minutes. Love this weather. Now moderate rain and breezy with the sun out.

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