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July 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


metalicwx366

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Whats shocking to me is how many times that's happened the past 12 months or so. SPC risk days have been the kiss of death lately, not just for severe, but anything at all. Still early though, things could get going but if we don't see anything by 7:00 or so, may be high and dry.

Did you see anything? :D

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SAL into the Carolinas ---- from the Wilmington weather office:

THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE

ATLANTIC AND INTO FLORIDA OVER THE PAST DAY AND A HALF. THIS LAYER

2-3 MILES ABOVE GROUND CONTAINS DUST LOFTED OVER TROPICAL AFRICA TWO

WEEKS AGO AND IS ALSO VERY DRY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS

THIS SAL AIRMASS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. MODEL

PROJECTIONS OF WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST A

PORTION OF THIS AIRMASS COULD BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTH

CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO

HELPING INHIBIT CONVECTION DUE TO WARM DRY AIR ALOFT...THIS SAL

AIRMASS CAN CONTAIN SAHARAN DUST GIVING A MILKY/HAZY APPEARANCE TO

THE SKY. WHILE I`M NOT AWARE OF RECORDS TRACKING THE OCCURRENCE OF

SAHARAN AIR IN THE CAROLINAS...THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I`VE NOTED

THIS IN MY NWS CAREER.

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After a total bust on rain the last 2 days by the nws, it's been some great rain this morning here. Even had some close lighting strikes this morning. I'm guessing it might have something to do with the outflow boundary from last nights line of storms but not sure. At any rate, it's caused some training...which is something I have not seen in forever. FFC noted this however about it...pretty strong wording for them. Not to mention them actually paying attention to east central Ga for a change instead of he metro.

...HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING...

.UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS

MORNING AND HAS INCREASED IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SINCE

THEN. A WELL DEFINED DEWPOINT GRADIENT AT 850MB LOOKS TO BE THE

MAIN DRIVER OF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND UNIFORM SOUTHWEST FLOW

ACROSS THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TRAINING

AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MONITORING CLOSELY FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL IN

EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IN

ADDITION...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LIFT ALONG 850

BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN PULSE STRONG STORMS WITH NUMEROUS

LIGHTNING STRIKES. UPDATED GRIDS TO SHOW CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH

18Z.

So far, I've picked up 1.45 inches...despite really being on the edge of the main band, which has been to my south..which has been hammered and no doubt the totals underestimated. . Rainfall rates have been as high as 3 inches per hour and like I've said I'm only on the edge of it. And the good news is it's expanding and generally the cells are moving E-NE, so hopefully this keeps up for a few more hours. God knows I need it. Even better, if it holds together, some even heavier rain is upstream which would effect me so got my fingers crossed.

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Where were the 80's that were supposed to happen today? I had 92 sunny and hot with no rain for over 2 weeks now, though the past 2 days it was all around us, just not here. I'm ready for Fall. . . .

Guess complaining worked, got over 3 inches with extreme lightening last night. Tomatoes needed it badly.

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Picked up .11 with a passing shower yesterday.most of the local stations,and TWC have my area as "stray" and "slight" chances for today,and most of next week.I thought we were shaping up to be a little wetter than that?

Yeah...this front didn't deliver as much as compared to the one nearly 2 weeks ago. Seemed like Northeastern North Carolina and up through the Delmarva did pretty good the last couple days.

For nearly 2 weeks, the Southern Appalachian region has had some sort of southerly wind aspect along with 2+ inch PWAT's...that combination usually results in good rainfall in the heart of summer.

Now we're getting to a more typical 1.5 inch PWAT and a westerly wind aspect which is still good enough for convection but not nearly as easy to reach convective threshold. What the Southeast needs to pay attention is the increased MCC activity starting in the next couple days.

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Looks like hot and dry returns, mid 90s at least the next 5 days with only isolated storms at best. At least I got over 7" this month, that may be it though for quite a while....

Let's hope that's not all the rain for a while.. It's been a pretty dry month in Atlanta. They are running below normal for the month. We could really use a slow moving tropical storm to just dump a ton of rain on all areas. I think that's the only way to get widespread rain in the summer.

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Let's hope that's not all the rain for a while.. It's been a pretty dry month in Atlanta. They are running below normal for the month. We could really use a slow moving tropical storm to just dump a ton of rain on all areas. I think that's the only way to get widespread rain in the summer.

Depends on where you are in ATL, I have had 7.2" and I suspect most of the downtown to Decatur zone has gotten at least 5" this month.

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Kind of discouraging to come back and find just .21" in the gauge from the last 2½ days. Some nice totals really close by - we're always right on the edge of the storms, it seems. It sure was nice to see what a 4 hour thunderstorm/rain shower looked like while we were in Concord over the weekend :D

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Warm Nights: (my poor A/C seems to never stop running.)

AS OF THIS WRITING WILMINGTON AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH HAVE ONLY

BEEN DOWN TO 80 DEGREES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. ASSUMING WE REMAIN

AT OR ABOVE 80 THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN WILMINGTON THIS WILL BE

THE THIRD SUCH OCCURRENCE THIS MONTH

AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...JULY 2012 MAY GO DOWN IN THE HISTORY BOOKS

AS THE HOTTEST MONTH IN WILMINGTON`S 138 YEAR CLIMATE HISTORY.

AVERAGE DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 2012: 84.5

HOTTEST AVG DAILY MEAN TEMP FOR ANY MONTH PREVIOUSLY: 84.1 IN JULY

1993 JULY 2012 IS CURRENTLY #1 ON THE ALL-TIME LIST.

Forecast for the week ahead; 90s every day (and a killer electric bill.)

Tim in ILM

P.S. No measurable rain here since the 0.02" on July 12th.

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