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July 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


metalicwx366

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Amazingly enough, the Sea breeze front and associated thin line of showers gave me 0.32 yesterday. After so many screwjobs, I feel lucky to say the least. But I still need one of those 4 to 6 inch rains, at least, in 2 hours or less to even come close to filling the lake up.

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It's been too wet here. I never thought I'd say it (came close last Summer). This pattern has definitely produced in my part of NC. I guess it's relative to what I'm used to nowadays, after so many Summers of a tenth here, a trace here and there, and small puny cells that skipped this area to reform downstream, its about time to feel "normal". Looks like the pattern will continue on. I'm at 5.73" for the month. I think 8" is possible here, and even a slight chance at 10", which only occurs 2 or 3 times a decade.

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It's been too wet here. I never thought I'd say it (came close last Summer). This pattern has definitely produced in my part of NC. I guess it's relative to what I'm used to nowadays, after so many Summers of a tenth here, a trace here and there, and small puny cells that skipped this area to reform downstream, its about time to feel "normal". Looks like the pattern will continue on. I'm at 5.73" for the month. I think 8" is possible here, and even a slight chance at 10", which only occurs 2 or 3 times a decade.

I'm a 1.8" with a reasonable shot at 2". OF RAIN

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I'm a 1.8" with a reasonable shot at 2". OF RAIN

Yeah, not so much in western VA around Roanoke down to north central NC and part of central VA and northeast NC. The mountains played a part in some downsloping and when the best Bermuda flow was with us, it favored the mountains and further south, but scattered areas are doing ok. Give it a little more time,looks like you'll end up with more than 2" on the month. ECMWF has a decent amount coming for the next week to ten days, but like you when in drought, expect to lean more toward the dry side, but that can and does change eventually. Overall the flow is atleast a 30 year climo normal wet pattern or even above normal for the Southeast, but unfortunately not every area will get the above totals. The flow changes Fri/Sat and then maybe another area of weakeness around Alabama which would help NC's chances of more overunning type of southerly flow with a boundary in the area.

post-38-0-42916700-1342490901_thumb.jpg

post-38-0-22433800-1342490927_thumb.jpg

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After today's rainfall, my measurements now stand at 4.61 inches for the month. That's crazy! And while not every day has featured downpours, I have had measurable rainfall (x > 0.01) at my house six out of the last seven days. I don't think I can touch Met1985's totals yet, and I'm not up to Foothills' amount, but this has been a truly pleasant surprise.

The really wild part about these totals is that the two driest days for my backyard were Wednesday and Thursday of this past week. If you'll recall, those were the days that were incredibly moist and cool outside. I don't believe I saw the sun for more than 5 minutes either day, as they featured low, thick clouds almost constantly. The highs on those two days IMBY were 78.0 and 74.6, respectively, and yet I saw a total of 0.03 inch of rainfall (all of it on Wednesday). Everyone else in GA, NC, and SC seemed to be racking up big totals on those days, and I was a little upset at my "misfortune," but I've cashed in these past several days through pop-up t-storms.

I'm reminded of the tongue-twister on one of my children's "Kid's Songs" CD:

Whether the weather be cold,

Or whether the weather be hot,

Whatever the weather,

We'll weather the weather,

Whether we like it or not!

Man, I love this hobby! There's always something interesting to comment on or to follow, even if it's not in your own backyard...

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Yeah, not so much in western VA around Roanoke down to north central NC and part of central VA and northeast NC. The mountains played a part in some downsloping and when the best Bermuda flow was with us, it favored the mountains and further south, but scattered areas are doing ok. Give it a little more time,looks like you'll end up with more than 2" on the month. ECMWF has a decent amount coming for the next week to ten days, but like you when in drought, expect to lean more toward the dry side, but that can and does change eventually. Overall the flow is atleast a 30 year climo normal wet pattern or even above normal for the Southeast, but unfortunately not every area will get the above totals. The flow changes Fri/Sat and then maybe another area of weakeness around Alabama which would help NC's chances of more overunning type of southerly flow with a boundary in the area.

post-38-0-42916700-1342490901_thumb.jpg

post-38-0-22433800-1342490927_thumb.jpg

I'm hopeful, but again tonight I got to watch several warned storms drop down from VA and completely disappear one county north of me.

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just missed by yards... literallly

Know that feeling --- was telling Robert earlier today that on Saturday, I watched a nice shower fall 800' from our place ---2 lots away. We didn't even get any blow-off raindrops from it!

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Yeah, not so much in western VA around Roanoke down to north central NC and part of central VA and northeast NC. The mountains played a part in some downsloping and when the best Bermuda flow was with us, it favored the mountains and further south, but scattered areas are doing ok. Give it a little more time,looks like you'll end up with more than 2" on the month. ECMWF has a decent amount coming for the next week to ten days, but like you when in drought, expect to lean more toward the dry side, but that can and does change eventually. Overall the flow is atleast a 30 year climo normal wet pattern or even above normal for the Southeast, but unfortunately not every area will get the above totals. The flow changes Fri/Sat and then maybe another area of weakeness around Alabama which would help NC's chances of more overunning type of southerly flow with a boundary in the area.

post-38-0-42916700-1342490901_thumb.jpg

post-38-0-22433800-1342490927_thumb.jpg

Good post as always.

Although I missed out on the line of storms out of sc last night, it wasn't too bothersome (although I need all the rain I can get)....since everyone has a decent shot virtually every day of seeing storms and some rain (even likely on friday in some areas outside the mountains). That is sooooo much better than those long periods of no shot or virtually not shot rain for 10 or 20 days...or even longer that we have had so many times in the past.

Short of a tropical system, that's the best you can hope for and better than many of the summers we have suffered through the last 6 years at least.

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Raleigh Discussion:

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE SURFACE FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH

THE MID-ATLANTIC SATES AND INTO VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT FORCED BY

A SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH A BLEND OF THE

NAM AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. A

SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND WITH THE

BERMUDA HIGH ALREADY OPENING THE GULF OF MEXICO UP...MOISTURE

TRANSPORT WILL BE BEST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. THIS REGION

WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL

FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK

WITH. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE SHOULD MAKE WIND

THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO

UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL MAKE HEAT INDICES RISE

INTO THE LOW 100S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE

LOWER 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NC AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED SETTLING OVER THE STATE FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY.

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER MOST OF THE STATE WILL HELP INCREASE

PRECIPITABLE WATERS FURTHER TO OVER 2.25 INCHES. ALL OF THE CWA WILL

HAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES

WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRESENT

MORE TROPICAL LIKE FEATURES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT

THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BUT QUITE A BIT LOWER LAPSE RATES THAN

PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MIGHT MAKE HEAVY RAIN A BIGGER THREAT THAN WIND

OR HAIL BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY

INTERACTION TO RULE OUT AND SEVERE STORMS AT THIS POINT. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHWARD AND A DRYING

TREND BEGINS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH

ON SATURDAY AND PHASE THEM OUT BY SUNDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN

FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH A CLEARING

TREND AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A

FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

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Yesterday, WRAL was hyping the storms, saying they could be severe, and nothing happened. No mention of storms in the forecast today and it's currently storming here in RTP. Typical for them this spring and summer.

You really don't get the "hit or miss" concept in summer thunderstorm forecasts.

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House shaking thunder started up about 5ish, and then the rains set in. Two hours later I've eaked up to a whole one tenth of an inch, and it still falls out there. I'm at 5.9 for the month now, and want very much to break 6 inches tonight. Maybe if this drippy drizzle continues until 9 or 10 I can get there, lol. T

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