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July 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


metalicwx366

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I watched a strong line of showers move toward my home all night and it fell apart just before it reached me. So zero for today.

Another zero precip day. Pretty much all around me again. I seemed to remain between the showers moving from the SW to NW and those coming in from the SE that turned and diminished as they entered Randolph county. I ended up with 1.04, all from the early part of the event. Needed a lot more but you take what you can get.

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Got a tenth tonight. Not so good this week, but I've still managed 5.7 since the 3rd, so I'm amazed none the less. This week has reminded me more of summers past that any summer week in years. The pop up line of showers that hits and moves on.... or lines up and trains. People around the state getting theirs as time goes by. Beats the hell out of drought days, which I've grown all too used to since the 70's. I'd sure love a good generational pattern switch. Get something new for the next 10 to 30 years. I vote for cooler, wetter summers and much colder and wetter winters. Or a return to the end of the 19th century might be good. Or the end of the 18th. Anything but the last ten summers....or the twenty before them :) T

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I wasn't here but apparently it *finally* rained more than a tenth or two. Thursday/early friday morning specifically...around 2.25 inches total. Wish I was here to see it..maybe I should leave town more often lol.

Only need about 8 inches more but thank god we got it before we start drying out.

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I picked up 0.35 inch of rain yesterday. Several periods of light rain added up to that total. So, for the week, I'm at 1.86 inches. Very low and heavy clouds this morning. I might get lucky and get some more rain this morning. As W-Dude said, it's been a while since I've seen much sun too. But, I'm okay with that. Let's keep on the cool and rainy train...

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Hello from the extreme southeast corner of North Carolina. While I read most posts here, I rarely chime in myself because other than when we have tropical activity there there's rarely anything of interest to say.

Yes, Wilmington suffered under the heat wave. We reached 100F or better several times including one day of 103F which is just one degree below our all-time record for any date. Being on the coast was no salvation from the heat or worse yet the heat index which reached as high as 120F.

What we didn't get -- is a lot of rain. We've had just one solid though not extraordinary thunderstorm over the past month or so. That and a couple of rain showers here and there. It's been a very dry summer here on Cape Fear.

Was pleased of course to see all the action across our region; just as I am in winter when little if anything happens here.

Looking ahead, we expect continuing deep blue tropical skies - via the Bermuda High - with those lovely towering cumulus that are so common under this regime. The tropics of course look dead as a door nail so I'll go back into weather hibernation for a while again.

Y'all take care and have a great summer.

Tim in ILM

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Tim, you write well, and it's interesting. You should post more, and let us decide about importance :)

Low 80's again here, and mostly cloudy once more. The storms will pop up later, and then it's the afternoon/evening crap shoot, some get hammered and some don't. I'm pulling the moles this evening....can't let them get fixated..so cut your hay while the sickle is sharp, lol.

Justin, glad you finally got something a bit more substantial, but, man, Kennesaw is a tough nut to crack. T

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Event total of .88". It's sad that, barring a storm today, we won't even break the 1" barrier.

I'm glad to see everyone else do well though. :lol:

1.09" for the event. Only 1.66 for the month.

Yikes! I feel better. Reading Roberts post event write up in the pattern change thread. I think there are still chances for the less fortunate to cash in.

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Event total of .88". It's sad that, barring a storm today, we won't even break the 1" barrier.

I'm glad to see everyone else do well though. :lol:

Wow... about 5 or so miles away and i am closing in on 3" for the event. Win some and lose some i guess. Better luck next time Justin.

I just checked the weather in upstate NY for later in the week. Upper 40's are showing up on the GFS. Fall and Winter are not too far away guys! :snowwindow:

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Grandfather Mountain Highland Games early Sunday morning before storms moved in:

Thursday was an in the clouds day with SE upslope

Friday: In the clouds and afternoon rainout with SE Upslope

Saturday: Beautiful day with low partky cloudy cloud deck half way up the mountain...1 brief afternoon shower.

Sunday: Beautiful clear morning then mid day deluge

http://wnharrell.com...radetartans.mp4

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post-581-0-62198600-1342526913_thumb.jpe

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^There is not even a 5% area of severe in the Southeast. Currently 75 with crystal clear skies. We should see a good coverage of storms tomorrow and Tuesday here from that tropical upper tropospheric trough spinning like a top off the coast in the Atlantic Ocean off the Southeast Coast moving toward our direction.

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^There is not even a 5% area of severe in the Southeast. Currently 75 with crystal clear skies. We should see a good coverage of storms tomorrow and Tuesday here from that tropical upper tropospheric trough spinning like a top off the coast in the Atlantic Ocean off the Southeast Coast moving toward our direction.

NC should see better coverage with the trough sagging south mid-day into this evening... The TUTT low will never make it up here, supposedly.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH LATER TODAY. THIS IN

TURN WILL DICTATE MAX TEMPS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE

OH VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKES WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED OVER

SECTIONS OF WESTERN PA AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IN WV. CONVECTIVE

ALLOWING MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THIS FEATURE...PLACING

MORE CONVECTIVE IMPETUS OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND

NOT ENOUGH FARTHER NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT VELOCITY OF THE MID LEVEL

SYSTEM...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES

BY MID DAY. AIR MASS PLENTY MOIST ENOUGH AND SHOULD OBTAIN ADEQUATE

INSTABILITY BY MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT CONVECTION.

HOWEVER...CONFLUENCE ALONG FEATURE RATHER WEAK AND AND BEST DYNAMICS

ALOFT OCCUR FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN VA INTO THE DELMARVA. GFS

MOS GUIDANCE STILL HANGING ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF

CENTRAL NC WHILE NAM MOS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CHANCE TO LOW END

LIKELY POPS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 30-40

PERCENT POPS WITH GREATER EMPHASIS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

NW HALF...SHIFTING INTO THE SE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THREAT NOMINAL THOUGH CORES WITH SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL (ATTRIBUTED TO PRECIP LOADING). IN

ADDITION...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD

PRODUCE AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.

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