mattmfm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Meh.. Upstream PIT looks worse. yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 with the caveat of not knowing what's going on in wv i don't think their upgrade to 30% wind was needed in the northern areas particularly. i'd be really surprised if the stuff on the north end is actually severe right now. the bow on the north end of wv activity might be worth watching to see if it progresses more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 DP 64 here. Doesn't seem that would support severe storms at night. Is that IAD sounding in agreement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Certainly nothing like friday night but it's conceivable that the storms can maintain with those parameters. Sustain yes, as for winds 1200 cape gets you max 40 mph downdraft using the approximation technique. We're also loosing SBCAPE by the minute as longwave radiation kicks the surface temperatures down at their highest rate this time of night (clear skies now too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Storms will all be meh-ish the rest of this season after what happened Friday night. Kind of like not caring about six-inchers in 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Sustain yes, as for winds 1200 cape gets you max 40 mph downdraft using the approximation technique. We're also loosing SBCAPE by the minute as longwave radiation kicks the surface temperatures down at their highest rate this time of night (clear skies now too). Well 40mph can certainly pull power crews off their assignments temporarily (not to mention heavy rain and lightning). Just stating that even non-severe storms can have a major impact given the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/MOBILE/ZOA2.htm Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 LWX not really feeling it... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL DO SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1000...BUT A NICE MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. CAP BE ERODED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COOLING WITH THE SYSTEM. ANY CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED IF A SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE COULD END UP BEING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 That sounding is not great, but it is by no means horrible. With PWATS much closer to 1", updraft efficiency will be much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 LWX not really feeling it... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL DO SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1000...BUT A NICE MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. CAP BE ERODED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COOLING WITH THE SYSTEM. ANY CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED IF A SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE COULD END UP BEING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. Sounds very reasonable. That sounding is not great, but it is by no means horrible. With PWATS much closer to 1", updraft efficiency will be much greater. And as I said above, even strong but not severe storms will have high impact on power restoration efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 wheres yoda?...theres a watch In JAX on family vacation left Friday morning and won't be back till Friday... and was out till now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 In JAX on family vacation left Friday morning and won't be back till Friday... and was out till now loooolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 those storms on the northern end are barely strong showers now. it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 loooolz I am going to go cry now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 those storms on the northern end are barely strong showers now. it's over. Yeah, they look really poor. Good for power crews, though. But I'm sure now that you've said this we'll be awoken to 1500mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I am going to go cry now eh i missed the tornadofest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 eh i missed the tornadofest You missed like 10 EF0s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bw26 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 What about us guys down in SWVA? It's looking like some impressive storms are headed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 What about us guys down in SWVA? It's looking like some impressive storms are headed our way. yeah and the stuff in c wv still looks decent too. but the dc area threat is pretty much done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Looks like the storms may do a Roanoke split. I can only see the radar as a stationary image right now so I'm sorta extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Looks like the storms may do a Roanoke split. I can only see the radar as a stationary image right now so I'm sorta extrapolating. barring dissipation, it'll be the blacksburg split with roanoke catching the southern end of it, or at the very least the southern end of the outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 New activity is popping. A cell or two in Garrett county MD and a few new cells in northern West Virginia around Davis and Elkins north of the previous line segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 New to area but relatives say for last 10 years these 3-7+ day outages have been happeing about once a year, snow, rain, wind, hot, cold. In all the discussion I am not hearing what seems obvious to me. Your electric company does not have enough people on hand to fix the problem. I do hear "well it happens rarely" So what; that is no excuse. A major utility needs to be prepared for such an emergency with sufficient staffing especially since there is a recent track record for such damage and outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Global warming=more extreme weather... can't be political if it's right/obvious. Wetter + warmer = more high-impact events all around, although the only events to cause 1 day + power outages in McLean were Isabel, the June '08 derecho, and this weekend's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Lighting in the sky. Northern end of the line is nothing. Looks thike SW VA and NC getting the severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Had a bit of thunder and lightning with the storm that just popped up over me. Not much rain, but some really large drops. Thought it was hail until I went out to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 New to area but relatives say for last 10 years these 3-7+ day outages have been happeing about once a year, snow, rain, wind, hot, cold. In all the discussion I am not hearing what seems obvious to me. Your electric company does not have enough people on hand to fix the problem. I do hear "well it happens rarely" So what; that is no excuse. A major utility needs to be prepared for such an emergency with sufficient staffing especially since there is a recent track record for such damage and outages. Wow. Folks telling me Isabel, June 2008, December 2009, Two in Feb. 2010, 2 or 3 severe but more localized in summer 2010, very wet snowstorm late Jan 2011, Irene 2011, that all of these were multi day events for tens and even hundreds of thousand. I dont understand they why what happened Friday is called unprecedented. I know the north to south coverage and length of the line was exception but no electric is no electric and it happens a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Can hear the thunder from the cell just north and east of Frederick. Really just want rain to water the yard although these garden variety storms seem small in size and fast movers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 looks like it may be another 1000 report day when tallied. SW VA has been hit all days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Wow. Folks telling me Isabel, June 2008, December 2009, Two in Feb. 2010, 2 or 3 severe but more localized in summer 2010, very wet snowstorm late Jan 2011, Irene 2011, that all of these were multi day events for tens and even hundreds of thousand. I dont understand they why what happened Friday is called unprecedented. I know the north to south coverage and length of the line was exception but no electric is no electric and it happens a lot. Just like people, trees get big and then old and then weak. Majority of the grid is above ground. And it was mostly built out in the 60's and 70's. All of our power outages are mostly caused by trees. Age is catching up to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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