Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the cape issue is because we lost dews quite a bit late day. they appear to be stable or rising again now, so we won't lose cape as fast here out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the cape issue is because we lost dews quite a bit late day. they appear to be stable or rising again now, so we won't lose cape as fast here out. You also mentioned that dews should come back up a bit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 1AM is when it's supposed to arrive correct? Anyway I'm standing by my Fredericksburg to Richmond call.We'll get rain here but maybe not wind That would be perfect. These don't appear to be moving as fast. Hopefully that might translate into more rain this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 From that storm cell over Lexington, KY, pilot called this in PIREP 00:00Z 07/02/12 LEX UA /OV FLM180010/TM 0000/FL130/TP BE10/WX MOD PRECIP/TB MOD CHOP/RM CALLED IT MOD CHOP BUT HE LOST 400-600 FT ALT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 From that storm cell over Lexington, KY, pilot called this in He has happy passengers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 im tempted to bail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 From that storm cell over Lexington, KY, pilot called this in I flew into DFW when they had that squall line in late March. I got delayed for several ground stops at DFW but they finally decided to fly north through Kansas and then back down towards DFW. He warned us that we'd have about 20 rough minutes going through the line up north and he wasn't wrong. Probably considered moderate turbulence but it sure felt worse than that at times. Needless to say, I held on to my arm rest like it was a million dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 im tempted to bail Even with the new meso out for a watch that includes parts of WVA, VA and MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Even with the new meso out for a watch that includes parts of WVA, VA and MD? i was just about to put the bail on hold MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA...WRN VA...ERN/SRN WV...ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 020032Z - 020200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS TO THE E OF WW/S 446/447/448 DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING COLD POOL ACROSS CNTRL OHIO CONTINUES TO MODESTLY ACCELERATE ESEWD/SEWD...WITH STORM MOTIONS NOW REACHING 40-45 KT. AND WITH 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG MAY TAKE THE SVR THREAT EAST OF ONGOING OH/WV/KY/IND WATCHES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE...AS LACK OF RECENT ANTECEDENT OVERTURNING MAY SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Anybody got a good phone compatible radar site? The NWS sites for the GL region is very slow to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Apparently my house is still dark, so as ling as we don't get another storm that keeps us without power through Friday, I hope we get some good rains. In the meantime, we're about to get smacked down here on Hilton Head. I really hope we don't get too much hail - don't want to drive home in a dinged-up car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Hmmm....I'm skeptical about tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Anybody got a good phone compatible radar site? The NWS sites for the GL region is very slow to update. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/MOBILE/ZOA2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the storms look pretty crap on the north end. almost time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 it is pretty awesome the wv site is down.. anyone's guess what's going on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the storms look pretty crap on the north end. almost time for bed. fork it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Blue box going out for portions of WVA and VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 SVR thunderstorm watch until 2am for WV, Western MD and western 2-3 counties in VA ... not DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 ...MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... A BAND OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM SERN INDIANA/NRN KY NEWD INTO OH...WITH THE OH PORTION OF THIS BAND EXHIBITING SEWD PROPAGATION. WITH AN UNSTABLE/LARGELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS RESIDING ACROSS SRN PA/WV/MD/VA...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST THAT THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO/ACROSS VA AND VICINITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED/INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 ...MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... A BAND OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM SERN INDIANA/NRN KY NEWD INTO OH...WITH THE OH PORTION OF THIS BAND EXHIBITING SEWD PROPAGATION. WITH AN UNSTABLE/LARGELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS RESIDING ACROSS SRN PA/WV/MD/VA...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST THAT THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO/ACROSS VA AND VICINITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED/INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. Hey sounds familiar on a bit lower scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Meh.. Upstream PIT looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Meh.. Upstream PIT looks worse. Certainly nothing like friday night but it's conceivable that the storms can maintain with those parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Meh.. Upstream PIT looks worse. yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 with the caveat of not knowing what's going on in wv i don't think their upgrade to 30% wind was needed in the northern areas particularly. i'd be really surprised if the stuff on the north end is actually severe right now. the bow on the north end of wv activity might be worth watching to see if it progresses more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 DP 64 here. Doesn't seem that would support severe storms at night. Is that IAD sounding in agreement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Certainly nothing like friday night but it's conceivable that the storms can maintain with those parameters. Sustain yes, as for winds 1200 cape gets you max 40 mph downdraft using the approximation technique. We're also loosing SBCAPE by the minute as longwave radiation kicks the surface temperatures down at their highest rate this time of night (clear skies now too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Storms will all be meh-ish the rest of this season after what happened Friday night. Kind of like not caring about six-inchers in 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Sustain yes, as for winds 1200 cape gets you max 40 mph downdraft using the approximation technique. We're also loosing SBCAPE by the minute as longwave radiation kicks the surface temperatures down at their highest rate this time of night (clear skies now too). Well 40mph can certainly pull power crews off their assignments temporarily (not to mention heavy rain and lightning). Just stating that even non-severe storms can have a major impact given the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/MOBILE/ZOA2.htm Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 LWX not really feeling it... REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL DO SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1000...BUT A NICE MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. CAP BE ERODED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/COOLING WITH THE SYSTEM. ANY CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED IF A SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE COULD END UP BEING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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