Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Make a call now - stick your neck out i think that northern end will try to hit us if it holds together. it's just not insanely impressive right now and it's going to come in pretty late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i think that northern end will try to hit us if it holds together. it's just not insanely impressive right now and it's going to come in pretty late. It is really just starting to organize now. The three complexes appear to be merging together into one curved line. I'll hold back on the derecho 2 call though but if the trend continues we'll know by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i think that northern end will try to hit us if it holds together. it's just not insanely impressive right now and it's going to come in pretty late. Late may not be a problem though - esp with the very warm temps and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Would say no chance of derecho with this, but northern OH cluster seems capable of holding together most of the night and would end up in MD-DC-noVA around midnight to 0300h. The southern cluster may make it as far as WV then begin to fragment over the mountains west of ROA at about the same time, some of this may make it into soVA. Would expect the storms to retain borderline severe and could bring beneficial 1-3 inch rains if they hold together. Then if wind and hail issues were not too severe, this could be a net positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Cold pools between the northern and southern complexs seem to be congealing. Still a little to early to tell, but it is possible that we could have a "serial" type squall line with time. Combination of a little stronger SR low level flow and high instability/good lapse rates would argue for the maintenance or further organization as the complex pushes into WV/Eastern OH, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Lines merge and we get raked. DC ground zero. Congrats LC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The debris from the convective storms in the southeast have been ejected 300 miles north, don't know what it means but I suspect it's an important clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Late may not be a problem though - esp with the very warm temps and such. maybe.. cape forecasts are not all that crazy, at least compared to friday. 1-2k mlcape will do tho. we've mixed out a bit more than you'd probably want with dews now near 60 and decent winds from nw/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i do think wv could stil get clobbered.. these storms are running into super juice over w central wv soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i do think wv could stil get clobbered.. these storms are running into super juice over w central wv soon New storms forming between complexes - looks like a big line forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 New storms forming between complexes - looks like a big line forming... #itshappening ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Lines merge and we get raked. DC ground zero. Congrats LC. Definitely looks like it's happening... although one of the radars in OH is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Last 20 minutes of radar has been wild to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Last 20 minutes of radar has been wild to watch. that new line in the middle is warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 that new line in the middle is warned now 75mph winds in the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i do think wv could stil get clobbered.. these storms are running into super juice over w central wv soon The MUCAPE is 5000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 75mph winds in the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Wow that is a cool radar shot Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 That storm to the south of ILN radar has monster hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 *snip* I ♥ GR Analyst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Latest warnings and watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I ♥ GR Analyst Yeah it's pretty nice. I had gr2 yrs ago but almost never used it but use analyst all the time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Yeah it's pretty nice. I had gr2 yrs ago but almost never used it but use analyst all the time now. You have a really nice color scale there - I'm too lazy to customize but I will when I have some spare time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 012322Z - 020045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL OHIO CONVECTIVE LINE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ELONGATE ALONG THE N-S-ORIENTED LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OHIO OWING TO BOTH NRN AND CNTRL OHIO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW PER CLEVELAND VWP DATA OFFERING 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS PRESENT. COLD POOL/SHEAR INTERACTIONS MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES NERN OH AND EVENTUALLY WRN PA. AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY MORE SUBSTANTIAL DMGG WIND THREAT MAY ENSUE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT MAY HINDER MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE GROWTH DESPITE ENHANCEMENT OFFERED BY COLD POOL/SHEAR BALANCE. AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT IS POSSIBLE. ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2012 ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Nice, half dollar size hail and 60 mph winds in those storms in the Wilmington WFO area in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Wow, haven't checked radar for a while. The line forming that's connecting the 2 comlpexes is kinda making me nervous. Nothing compared to Friday of course but dc metro is prob going to get something half decent tonight. I really want to keep my power so I'm rooting for the split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Lines merge and we get raked. DC ground zero. Congrats LC. Percentage this happens, Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Sort of looks like you can see the diffuse boundary on CLE radar, with the storms north of it washing out. Will have to see if south of the boundary a sustained complex can continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Cape is dropping in DC.Only around 1500 and falling. Fredericksburg to Richmond looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 That's for 1am. Cape is dropping in DC.Only around 1500 and falling. Fredericksburg to Richmond looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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