yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 HUGE amount of lightning being detected on the big storm east of Front Royal. Seems like its taking its sweet time moving too... hoping that storm can get me in Southern fairfax later.. as Ian said above, storms seem to have a more easterly component of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 the front itself isn't that impressive.. stuff seems to be weakening coming out of that zone. best convergence isn't aligning with the front either. the mesoanalysis product does have the best convergence over the areas storm fired up. That is probably what has caused the lack of storms to the east. Of course the overspilling cirrus from the west is not helping either. You would think these storms have enough fuel to eat up the instability in the atmosphere and get going. I'm guessing its most likely the lack of steeper ML lapse rates. That IAD sounding looks denotes it pretty well. The wind fields don't look all too impressive either. So it seems we just have these little unorganized pop up storms feeding off the CAPE and generating massive amounts of lightning. Surprising lack of rain falling in this soaked atmosphere too. But they are slow movers. My guess is we see a couple develop into organized segments maybe and some severe reports, but it seems more likely we see houses get struck by lightning on the news than wind/hail reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Gotta admit, not really sure what's keeping these storms from going up. Great cape, decent (and increasing) shear... Shear is marginal at best ... sfc - 6km under 30kts. Also, low level wind fields aren't overly great either ... which helps to put a lid on new cells forming and sustaining themselves along gust fronts. Mid level lapse rates are marginal. Lastly, PWATS are very high which means you have a lot of mass to lift in the updrafts today. Without good shear/SR winds to vacate that mass, updrafts will struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Cool 'bay'breeze denoted well on radar just to the west of the chesapeake if you want to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Cool 'bay'breeze denoted well on radar just to the west of the chesapeake if you want to check it out. scroll up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 102 here in West Springfield... its atrocious out... hope for some rain. I guess its good temps all next week should be around 85 for highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 if that stuff sw/w congeals we might be toast in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Backyard station is at 88 down for 95 just an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 how in the world are they still warning that tiny cell in front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 if that stuff sw/w congeals we might be toast in dc. I hope not... it better come east. That would leave us hot and fry and humid for rest of afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 how in the world are they still warning that tiny cell in front? The Loudoun/Montgomery one was cancelled at 345 for weakening... and now they rewarned it minutes later? Ok then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 We've reached Excessive Heat Warning criteria once again today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 scroll up Missed that one while typing! Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 The Loudoun/Montgomery one was cancelled at 345 for weakening... and now they rewarned it minutes later? Ok then... I just got a new warning on it via NWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 The Loudoun/Montgomery one was cancelled at 345 for weakening... and now they rewarned it minutes later? Ok then... winds dont look svr on radar.. plus it's not moving the shape of the box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 how in the world are they still warning that tiny cell in front? Post derechosaurus wrecks paranoia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 how in the world are they still warning that tiny cell in front? Hail up to the size of quarters? The tops are 13,000 ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 winds dont look svr on radar.. plus it's not moving the shape of the box Re: the polygon warning boxes - there have been some weird shaped ones in the days since 6/29 - there was one the other day that was way bigger than it needed to be. I seem to remember LWX canceling a huge chunk that hadn't seen so much as a drop of rain within 10 or 15 minutes of the issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Hail up to the size of quarters? The tops are 13,000 ft... I aa confused as to why that cell is warned... I am waiting hopefully for the one behind it to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Hail up to the size of quarters? The tops are 13,000 ft... for tops it's too close to the radar if you're looking at lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Woah there.. Front Royal storm blew up... hail to half dollar size and destructive winds over 80 mph it says... holy crap.. headed toward Oatlands/Broad Run/Aldie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Seems like its taking its sweet time moving too... hoping that storm can get me in Southern fairfax later.. as Ian said above, storms seem to have a more easterly component of late That big cell just south of Leesburg looks like it's got its eye on us, yoda. [knock on wood] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 winds dont look svr on radar.. plus it's not moving the shape of the box Not a 100% sure, but I guess they did it because reflectivites aloft jumped again right after the warning was dropped. Between that and what they are seeing out their window, they must fell like it will be become severe again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Ahh, the end. 93.6, down from 97.8. Bring on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Wind has really picked up here in front of that larger cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Not a 100% sure, but I guess they did it because reflectivites aloft jumped again right after the warning was dropped. Between that and what they are seeing out their window, they must fell like it will be become severe again. It does look a bit better but the box is still odd as it's running south of it already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Looks like that large cell will be the play of the day cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Hit 100 again before clouds from developing storms closed in. Warned cell about to come through. I sure hope the power doesn't go out in this heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 DC still 101, and looks like we're in for some showers with storms to the south. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Looks like DC proper is in the screw zone on that big cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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