Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 stuff further west looks to be moving more east than the first few cells.. so maybe they'll make it this way too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 first storm might miss.. having trouble pulling the trigger and going into wait in 100 degree heat. Don't go, it's miserable out and they look crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I'll write it.....meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Models absolutely blew max temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Don't go, it's miserable out and they look crappy. yeah im going to let the first go by at least.. HI 110 now, i think that's higher than yesterday got. excessive heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 105.5* on the PWS close to my house... And, no, it doesn't typically run hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Models absolutely blew max temps today. they usually do right before a front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 up to 102 at dca 99 at IAD/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Models absolutely blew max temps today. The NAM was pretty good on Sunday. The GFS has been a catastrophic failure on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 yeah im going to let the first go by at least.. HI 110 now, i think that's higher than yesterday got. excessive heat? Yea HI is hotter today than yesterday, LWX not exactly on the ball with the heat-related headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 maybe we hit 106 at some pt we'll get hit by some outflow but we could still push 104 or so? 102 is pedestrian heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 stuff further west looks to be moving more east than the first few cells.. so maybe they'll make it this way too? Just noticed that. The one that brushed by me is still moving S but you are right the stuff W of it is moving more East. I can tell you after a few drops of rain that fell it is disgusting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I like how all the weather outlets have said now for every severe threat since 6/29 that it won't be as bad as 6/29. New baseline I suppose? We should use this principle for snow now too - "not nearly as bad as Feb 2010!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Yea HI is hotter today than yesterday, LWX not exactly on the ball with the heat-related headlines. Out here too. No headlines, but we were 101 a bit ago and the heat index is right around 110. Storms popping up all around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I like how all the weather outlets have said now for every severe threat since 6/29 that it won't be as bad as 6/29. New baseline I suppose? We should use this principle for snow now too - "not nearly as bad as Feb 2010!" i hope it stops soon it's kinda silly. of course it's not going to be 6/29 when was the last 6/29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 hrm the original core of the lead cell died now it's moving this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 A smattering of tweets: A significant wind damage event is about to occur. Stay tuned to@WTOP for updates, folks!] More power-killing storms on the way, DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Gotta admit, not really sure what's keeping these storms from going up. Great cape, decent (and increasing) shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted July 8, 2012 Author Share Posted July 8, 2012 99 at IAD/BWI I think BWI only has the 3-4pm hour to make it. I'm NW of BWI and a distinctive middle deck of clouds is moving from my NW to SE toward BWI. Have only seen 95.9 so far today IMBY. To the S&E I see broken clouds and some blue sky. To the NW and I see a much more solid mid-cloud deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Gotta admit, not really sure what's keeping these storms from going up. Great cape, decent (and increasing) shear... Can anyone post a sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Gotta admit, not really sure what's keeping these storms from going up. Great cape, decent (and increasing) shear... Looks like the front is pretty diffused and isn't strong enough to get aid initiation. Plus the 12z IAD sounding shows a convective temp of 98 and most locations haven't hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I think the lack of mid level lapse rates is definitely not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Can anyone post a sounding? IAD 12z sounding from SPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Gotta admit, not really sure what's keeping these storms from going up. Great cape, decent (and increasing) shear... the front itself isn't that impressive.. stuff seems to be weakening coming out of that zone. best convergence isn't aligning with the front either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 i hope it stops soon it's kinda silly. of course it's not going to be 6/29 when was the last 6/29? It just doesn't make sense to keep comparing...the public didn't need to be told it wouldn't be like June 2008 after that event. A smattering of tweets: A significant wind damage event is about to occur. Stay tuned to@WTOP for updates, folks!] More power-killing storms on the way, DC. Fear mongering... I hate DC laypeople when it comes to weather. I wonder how they'd do in tornado alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 HUGE amount of lightning being detected on the big storm east of Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 bay breeze inching west still.. something trying to fire on it. i think the models will prob end up right that main focus is sw and south of dc. tho they kinda missed the stuff to the nw initially. the cells west are moving more easterly still, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 HUGE amount of lightning being detected on the big storm east of Front Royal. Seems like its taking its sweet time moving too... hoping that storm can get me in Southern fairfax later.. as Ian said above, storms seem to have a more easterly component of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 the front itself isn't that impressive.. stuff seems to be weakening coming out of that zone. best convergence isn't aligning with the front either. the mesoanalysis product does have the best convergence over the areas storm fired up. That is probably what has caused the lack of storms to the east. Of course the overspilling cirrus from the west is not helping either. You would think these storms have enough fuel to eat up the instability in the atmosphere and get going. I'm guessing its most likely the lack of steeper ML lapse rates. That IAD sounding looks denotes it pretty well. The wind fields don't look all too impressive either. So it seems we just have these little unorganized pop up storms feeding off the CAPE and generating massive amounts of lightning. Surprising lack of rain falling in this soaked atmosphere too. But they are slow movers. My guess is we see a couple develop into organized segments maybe and some severe reports, but it seems more likely we see houses get struck by lightning on the news than wind/hail reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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