Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 idk- warned cells popping in southern MI and main cluster starting to take on a bow shape. Especially last couple of frames. Time will tell but def worth paying attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 the "weight" of it has translated SE pretty substantially in the last hour.. could matter upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 the "weight" of it has translated SE pretty substantially in the last hour.. could matter upstream SPC sure thinks so - I think the earlier expansion of slight risk for us was for scattered stuff - the "path" of the slight risk minus our part misses us south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 New record set at IAD today, 96* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 the "weight" of it has translated SE pretty substantially in the last hour.. could matter upstream Yea definitely breaking much more SE of late, towards Dayton, but interesting segment of storms up in S MI that are growing. Edit: you can see on vis well, there's a cloud trail out ahead of the MCS it's following http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Yea definitely breaking much more SE of late, towards Dayton, but interesting segment of storms up in S MI that are growing. Edit: you can see on vis well, there's a cloud trail out ahead of the MCS it's following http://www.meteo.psu...S/anim8vis.html that new stuff forming near the michigan border might be helpful if it continues. and kenny, you might be right, or they might be couching against a shift east after the apps with the mid-lvl winds or a run toward higher (unused) cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Yea definitely breaking much more SE of late, towards Dayton, but interesting segment of storms up in S MI that are growing. Edit: you can see on vis well, there's a cloud trail out ahead of the MCS it's following http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim8vis.html That won't be good if it decides to follow that path. Brings it into some hard hit areas as well as Roanoke from Friday's derecho. Might aswell just hit me again before they get power back on instead of the the power coming on just to have it knocked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The clusters in SC and GA are barely moving. There's going to be some serious flash flooding down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Please no. I love having my air conditioning back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 98 so far? Bad cell service. 99 at the latest obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Still struggling to organize. into a coma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Not looking forward to moving back to Towson tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Watch out in Northern WV till 11 pm... SPC MD out for N OH storms saying watch possible (60%) and that if a cold pool develops with those storms, a more widespread wind threat may ensue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 HRRR would have that Detroit cluster develop as a MCS and make it to DC around 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The clusters in SC and GA are barely moving. There's going to be some serious flash flooding down that way. Tons of hail around the Columbia, SC area, the pics are pretty amazing orange size hail falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 HRRR would have that Detroit cluster develop as a MCS and make it to DC around 06z. LWX thinks it will pass south of us... but will watch very closely in 430 AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 LWX thinks it will pass south of us... but will watch very closely in 430 AFD Think they were primarily referring to Dayton complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Think they were primarily referring to Dayton complex. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 come on , we need the rain, hold together out of the Toledo, Oh area. Its our best bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Think they were primarily referring to Dayton complex. They said complex in IN.. so who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Yeah, looks quite promising because it's now impossible for the northern end of the complex near Lake Erie to miss DC unless it dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i'd like a little more moisture but dews should rise as we get into night. the northern part has really solidified though.. tornado warning embedded now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i'd like a little more moisture but dews should rise as we get into night. the northern part has really solidified though.. tornado warning embedded now. Make a call now - stick your neck out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 BAseball sized hail on that warning in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Zanesville to Martietta should get raked with severe thunderstorm activity soon. The highest tops are on a virtual railroad track path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Make a call now - stick your neck out i think that northern end will try to hit us if it holds together. it's just not insanely impressive right now and it's going to come in pretty late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i think that northern end will try to hit us if it holds together. it's just not insanely impressive right now and it's going to come in pretty late. It is really just starting to organize now. The three complexes appear to be merging together into one curved line. I'll hold back on the derecho 2 call though but if the trend continues we'll know by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i think that northern end will try to hit us if it holds together. it's just not insanely impressive right now and it's going to come in pretty late. Late may not be a problem though - esp with the very warm temps and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Would say no chance of derecho with this, but northern OH cluster seems capable of holding together most of the night and would end up in MD-DC-noVA around midnight to 0300h. The southern cluster may make it as far as WV then begin to fragment over the mountains west of ROA at about the same time, some of this may make it into soVA. Would expect the storms to retain borderline severe and could bring beneficial 1-3 inch rains if they hold together. Then if wind and hail issues were not too severe, this could be a net positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Cold pools between the northern and southern complexs seem to be congealing. Still a little to early to tell, but it is possible that we could have a "serial" type squall line with time. Combination of a little stronger SR low level flow and high instability/good lapse rates would argue for the maintenance or further organization as the complex pushes into WV/Eastern OH, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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