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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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I was too I guess. It should count!

Maybe to protect against hot jet blasts souring the reports ;)

Have to wonder how different the records would be if that rule did not exist. Plus...in a time before automated stations did somebody really stand outside for minutes to make sure the analog thermometer stayed there before declaring the high?!

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It's funny the whole area has become thermometer watchers like us.

The term weenie now applies to heatwaves. lol

I like seeing such enthusiasm for weather. I've been into it for as long as I can remember and this board is one heck of a gathering place for like minded people. I never paid attention to heat much in the past. I blame amwx for furthering my affliction for wx.

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mcd1431.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0443 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...ERN MD...DE...NJ...SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 072143Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL PA MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW

MORE HOURS WITH A WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...STORMS PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND ERN PA...AND SHOULD

CONTINUE MOVING IN A SELY DIRECTION WITH MEAN NWLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM

ERN PA INTO NJ AND NY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STORM TO REGENERATE

AND/OR GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH HOT TEMPERATURES

AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL

BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE

STRONGEST STORMS.

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Regarding the 100s at IAD it is an interesting stat. While BWI and DCA obviously observe more overall, the same can generally be seen at those locations the last three years. They both avg about 1 per year through the record--or did before 2010. DCA has now done 4, 5, 4 the last three years and BWI has done 7, 5, 2. I guess we hope it's just a bump in the long term road.

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Dr. Forbes, speaking about the Philadelphia area: "You need to move indoors right now." #severe

That line doesn't even look severe at this point. Looks like TWC has joined the post-derecho pandaemonium, after calling it a derecho earlier.

Well it's had a history of producing some pretty wicked wind gusts...a spotter in Lehigh County measured a wind gust to 68mph. Not saying the damage would be widespread, but if you get hit, you'll get it good.

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Dr. Forbes, speaking about the Philadelphia area: "You need to move indoors right now." #severe

That line doesn't even look severe at this point. Looks like TWC has joined the post-derecho pandaemonium, after calling it a derecho earlier.

looks like widespread destruction is imminent

post-1615-0-63824100-1341701706_thumb.jp

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And speaking of bad data, why does the 6:28 LWX AFD show this for the climo section?

AT 2:52 EDT...THE TEMPERATURE WAS 103 DEGREES AT REAGAN NATIONAL

AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 102 SET BACK IN 2010.

Because the AFD is not fully updated but twice a day. That part probably was not updated - it was probably an update for the STW.

If you wanted climate info/record info you need to read the climate report not the AFD.

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They probably have the same rounding error that wunderground does. They use the already rounded celsius temperature to convert to Fahrenheit. That introduces problems at certain temps.

And they probably won't fix it either since the lay people don't care as much about a degree as the weather nuts and scientists do. :(

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