MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Earliest in the morning my station has hit 90° in the last two years, beating 7/22/11 by one minute (the day IAD hit 105). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Everything has to be just about perfect to set an all time record. This is not perfect. we'll see.. im not quite sure what the difference is between 104/105 and 106 other than maybe a lucky wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 we'll see.. im not quite sure what the difference is between 104/105 and 106 other than maybe a lucky wind gust. We don't have to worry about it. The RAP says that surface temps will be over 110 with 27+ 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 We don't have to worry about it. The RAP says that surface temps will be over 110 with 27+ 850s. lol.. and the rap is supposedly the new hotness (well i guess so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 seriously tho.. if it doesnt hit 106 this heat wave sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 lol.. and the rap is supposedly the new hotness (well i guess so). The HRRR is actually reasonable on temps. I have no idea how that happens if it is based off of the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Dew point is +14 to +15 at the three airports from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Dew point is +14 to +15 at the three airports from yesterday. that might be our issue pushing really high temps tho it happened last yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The HRRR is actually reasonable on temps. I have no idea how that happens if it is based off of the RAP. It's only initialized from the 0 hour RAP fields after that it's a different model, so I'm not surprised by the solution divergence. Edit: the HRRR is also not initialized by NCEP RAP it uses a newer experimental version (e.g., essentially an updated version of WRF along with some updated parameterizations and data sets). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 dew pt 16 higher than yesterday for 10am at DC.. 75 is pretty god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 seriously tho.. if it doesnt hit 106 this heat wave sucks Keep your 106 down there, send me a blizzard please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Keep your 106 down there, send me a blizzard please Going to be pretty tough to get there. 102-104 seems good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 while not impressed by H8 temps on the 12z IAD sounding, they are a bit misleading...the inversion associated with the EML is at around 750 mb where temperatures are around 18C...if we completely mix out this afternoon, taking the 750 mb temperature and warming it dry adibatically you get surface temps around 42C (NOTE: approximation..not forecast)...so this is a case where H8 temps from the 12z sounding aren't the best predictor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 while not impressed by H8 temps on the 12z IAD sounding, they are a bit misleading...the inversion associated with the EML is at around 750 mb where temperatures are around 18C...if we completely mix out this afternoon, taking the 750 mb temperature and warming it dry adibatically you get surface temps around 42C (NOTE: approximation..not forecast)...so this is a case where H8 temps from the 12z sounding aren't the best predictor... wont an eml usually prevent mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 It's only initialized from the 0 hour RAP fields after that it's a different model, so I'm not surprised by the solution divergence. Edit: the HRRR is also not initialized by NCEP RAP it uses a newer experimental version (e.g., essentially an updated version of WRF along with some updated parameterizations and data sets). Thanks. 12z NAM forecast sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 wont an eml usually prevent mixing? Not as modeled today it seems...fully mixes out on the NAM. 12z NAM 0-hour forecast http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=726&sounding.y=304&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false 12 NAM 9-hour forecast http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=726&sounding.y=304&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=09¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Also, see 12z RAP, fully mixed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 10am roundup DCA: 92/75 (S @ 7) IAD: 93/73 BWI: 93/72 me: 92.5 at time of obs, currently 94.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Many areas should be AOA 100 by noon. DCA jumped 7 degrees in an hour with clear skies and little wind. 850 mb temps around 72 degrees F. Of note, Baltimore Inner Harbor/MD Sci. Center has reached AOA 100 each day this month but one and poised to do so in a handful of hours. Probably another modern record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Other fun notes from around the country: 89 at O'Hare and Detroit, 91 at Indianapolis at 8am local. NWS in Indianapolis has upped their forecast to 107. Like DCA, their all-time record is 106. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 NWS in Indianapolis has upped their forecast to 107. Like DCA, their all-time record is 106. that's insanely awesome...i wish we had a better chance at our all time record...seems like a wasted opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Already a pocket of 4500 SBCAPE in the area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like we've topped off our morning ascent. Now the struggle upward begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Im thinking positive with this move, maybe I'll burn off some water weight I've put on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Went out yesterday evening to do some crabbing, and besides being beautiful, temps on the water weren't bad. Then back out this morning for a few more before the real heat hit, but by the time we got back to the ramp it was already sweltering. For the rest of the weekend, a bushel and a half with friends in the AC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 DCA 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 DCA 99 West wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Boom DCA: 99 IAD: 96 BWI: 97 me: 95.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Only 90 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 West wind! That's actually what I saw in the metar before I even looked at temp/td...i love big jumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Figured it would jump when the winds shifted. 99 @ 11AM has to be one of the most impressive ever and although 107 is a reach, it's definitely still possible... although ~105 seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.