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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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Oh yeah? Please explain more

If you look at the SPC WRF it sort of shows what I meant. It's more for areas like PA,nrn MD area but could spill south to Baltimore. Not like it would be like last weekend, but you don't need that right now. Just something to watch. Hopefully it's more

to the north.

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Everything has to be just about perfect to set an all time record. This is not perfect.

we'll see.. im not quite sure what the difference is between 104/105 and 106 other than maybe a lucky wind gust.

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We don't have to worry about it. The RAP says that surface temps will be over 110 with 27+ 850s. :lmao:

lol.. and the rap is supposedly the new hotness (well i guess so).

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The HRRR is actually reasonable on temps. I have no idea how that happens if it is based off of the RAP.

It's only initialized from the 0 hour RAP fields after that it's a different model, so I'm not surprised by the solution divergence.

Edit: the HRRR is also not initialized by NCEP RAP it uses a newer experimental version (e.g., essentially an updated version of WRF along with some updated parameterizations and data sets).

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while not impressed by H8 temps on the 12z IAD sounding, they are a bit misleading...the inversion associated with the EML is at around 750 mb where temperatures are around 18C...if we completely mix out this afternoon, taking the 750 mb temperature and warming it dry adibatically you get surface temps around 42C (NOTE: approximation..not forecast)...so this is a case where H8 temps from the 12z sounding aren't the best predictor...

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