TUweathermanDD Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 On the new stw out west near the lakes, vector is 290 so due east and the watch is not angled like they originally hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 From chicago: ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN COOK...DUPAGE...EASTERN DE KALB...NORTHWESTERN WILL...NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE...KENDALL AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT... AT 1211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STREAMWOOD TO CAROL STREAM TO WHEATON TO NAPERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... ROLLING MEADOWS...PALATINE...LOCKPORT AND YORK CENTER AROUND 1220 PM CDT. LEMONT...WOODRIDGE...WESTMONT AND OAK BROOK AROUND 1225 PM CDT. HINSDALE AND DARIEN AROUND 1230 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Holy **** AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELK GROVE VILLAGE TO ELMHURST TO DOWNERS GROVE TO NAPERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE WINDS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL DUPAGE COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Holy **** AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELK GROVE VILLAGE TO ELMHURST TO DOWNERS GROVE TO NAPERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE WINDS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL DUPAGE COUNTY. Why would you clip out the important fact that this is for the Chicago area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Hope we get spared down here today. We don't need another event that ruins the progress of power here. How are the severe parameters looking for this area? I hate to keep asking, but I still don't have access to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 "dc split" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Some pretty impressive instability numbers developing in S-Central PA and N-Central MD. CAPE pushing 3500j/kg from I-81 south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Yea, NW wind is the one negative. Sort of surprised there's no heat advisory for today. 100-105 HI so far and with half the region without power, would think they'd err on issuing one. I was thinking the same thing earlier. LWX in particular is so strict when it comes to advisories and warnings because they want a good record when it comes to issuing warnings and getting them correct. They constantly say "we will barely reach criteria for today" but I think warning offices need to consider the facts and not just the numbers that "barely reach criteria." Philly is on the other end of things. They issue warnings too often. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 nobody really cares anymore about 100....we'll probably hit it today,,,it is pretty standard now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Larry cosgrove calling for another derecho and says it will come thru dc/md later md below i70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 That complex in IL / IN has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Larry cosgrove calling for another derecho and says it will come thru dc/md later md below i70 Ummm...yikes if he's right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 That complex in IL / IN has legs. There is some slight comma head development going on. I think this will be a long-lived mesoscale convective system or derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 i agree the odds are growing this will be a pretty severe complex im not sure on that northern edge into us. i dont love the hrrr handling of the system so i wouldnt take anything verbatim but it does at least clip us with some convection on the edge. either way the environment ahead of the complex is very unstable and expected to continue to head into extremely unstable. WV in particular looks in potential trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Airmass downstream in IN/OH/PA/WV/VA looks primed. Wouldn't be surprised if this holds together. Several wind reports in excess of 70 - 80mph already coming in across the Chicago, IL / Gary, IN area. CAPE: Mid Level lapse rate Lifted Index's....approaching -10 across portions of WV panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 CAPE forecasts push extreme instability across central WV as the complex moves that direction. I still want to lean south around here but if that nose translates east the storms may want to just keep running into it. In that case it could certainly run across northern VA. So far it's staying pretty far north. We'll see.. we aren't quite on Friday territory with ingredients and it's a bit later I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Airmass downstream in IN/OH/PA/WV/VA looks primed. Wouldn't be surprised if this holds together. Several wind reports in excess of 70 - 80mph already coming in across the Chicago, IL / Gary, IN area. CAPE: Mid Level lapse rate Lifted Index's....approaching -10 across portions of WV panhandle Right nor the SRN storms are a little toom far east for an MCS. Ifthe tail can backfill a bit then we'll have another MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 CAPE forecasts push extreme instability across central WV as the complex moves that direction. I still want to lean south around here but if that nose translates east the storms may want to just keep running into it. In that case it could certainly run across northern VA. So far it's staying pretty far north. We'll see.. we aren't quite on Friday territory with ingredients and it's a bit later I think? For the sake of the people without power - I hope that your forecast is as sound as it was on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The trees that survived Friday's storm must be at least somewhat weakened, no? Makes me wonder if gusts in the 50-60mph range would bring down a larger amount of trees than usual if something were to move though tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 CAPE forecasts push extreme instability across central WV as the complex moves that direction. I still want to lean south around here but if that nose translates east the storms may want to just keep running into it. In that case it could certainly run across northern VA. So far it's staying pretty far north. We'll see.. we aren't quite on Friday territory with ingredients and it's a bit later I think? Perhaps the key to all of this is the extent of the cold front, which is not making much southward progress in New England and the downstream pattern is becoming zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Just looked at the forecast on the mesoanalysis page - develops 7000 CAPE in WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Just looked at the forecast on the mesoanalysis page - develops 7000 CAPE in WV Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Perhaps the key to all of this is the extent of the cold front, which is not making much southward progress in New England and the downstream pattern is becoming zonal. It's still a bit early to figure anything out concretely. I'm not even confident it will continue to grow upstream -- I have a hard time seeing why not though. mid-lvl winds seem to want to bring it ese or se.. not much of that just yet. however, right now once you hit the apps winds turn more westerly which makes it hard to rule out this (my local) area for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 It's still a bit early to figure anything out concretely. I'm not even confident it will continue to grow upstream -- I have a hard time seeing why not though. mid-lvl winds seem to want to bring it ese or se.. not much of that just yet. however, right now once you hit the apps winds turn more westerly which makes it hard to rule out this (my local) area for now. It would probably scrape the area at the very least based on the gradient over Southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Right nor the SRN storms are a little toom far east for an MCS. Ifthe tail can backfill a bit then we'll have another MCS. Perhaps the key to all of this is the extent of the cold front, which is not making much southward progress in New England and the downstream pattern is becoming zonal. Just looked at the forecast on the mesoanalysis page - develops 7000 CAPE in WV It will be interesting to see what happens once that cluster over IN gets in western WV. Some pretty decent instability and up slope along the Allegheny Plateau / Appalachian Mts. could enhance and sustain updrafts. We'll see. For your amusement...Derecho Composite. Not saying we see anything like Friday, but perhaps a low end MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 These needs to be watched very carefully IMO ... tons of MUCAPE and DCAPE to work with for sustaining updrafts along a cold pool should a MCS develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 For the sake of the people without power - I hope that your forecast is as sound as it was on Friday. Likewise, we've got a lot of trees hanging on power lines and partially broken large limbs around here. Another derecho would make the power companies restoration work all for naught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 These needs to be watched very carefully IMO ... tons of MUCAPE and DCAPE to work with for sustaining updrafts along a cold pool should a MCS develop. Potentially noteworthy to point out, out though is that shear seems a bit lower (at least according to the mesoanalysis page). Didn't look at the 12z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 nobody really cares anymore about 100....we'll probably hit it today,,,it is pretty standard now... 98 so far? Bad cell service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 the lesser shear may be keeping it from getting well established thus far. it's certainly not much if any more impressive than it was an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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