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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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this has been a really stormy week or so for good chunks of the eastern half of the country.. almost exceptionally so. swva in particular seems to get hit every day lately.

Seems as if ours are always a line of storms that is gone in twenty minutes or scattered that are hit or miss. I'd love to see us in such a widespread area of heavy rain. Seems those areas where in heavy rain for hours.

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Ouch time

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

920 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>040-042-050>057-

501-502-060930-

/O.NEW.KLWX.EH.A.0003.120707T1600Z-120708T0200Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-

ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-

MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...

GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...

ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...

MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON

920 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...BETWEEN 110 AND 115 DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR

100 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

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It was a brief period of moderate rain out my way, with some thunder. Nothing impressive.

On the other hand, a friend of mine who lives around Hereford lost power for 5 hours, saw a lot of downed trees, and likely got 2"+ (based on radar estimates).

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Day 3 30% from SPC with mention of potentially more enhanced probabilities.

Down in OC MD for the weekend through early next week, cant say i'm not a little interested in the setup on Sunday.

You can see the good shear sinking south on the northern periphery of the best instability. The NAM 700mb wind maps illustrate this very well (on an iPhone or else I would post it myself) , with the northern mid atlantic in the rrq of the h7 jet and which sits near the northern fringes of very high instability values.

Once we get convective initiation, if this sinks southward with the front Sunday afternoon and evening, there will be good support for organized convection with continued height falls past 00z Sunday. There should be additional damaging wind potential near the Mason Dixon line eastward to Southern NJ where the instability initially is juxtaposed with 30-45kt 700mb jet streak as well.

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Down in OC MD for the weekend through early next week, cant say i'm not a little interested in the setup on Sunday.

You can see the good shear sinking south on the northern periphery of the best instability. The NAM 700mb wind maps illustrate this very well (on an iPhone or else I would post it myself) , with the northern mid atlantic in the rrq of the h7 jet and which sits near the northern fringes of very high instability values.

Once we get convective initiation, if this sinks southward with the front Sunday afternoon and evening, there will be good support for organized convection with continued height falls past 00z Sunday. There should be additional damaging wind potential near the Mason Dixon line eastward to Southern NJ where the instability initially is juxtaposed with 30-45kt 700mb jet streak as well.

I am thinking this setup honks moderate risk for us here in the mid atlantic, I mean day 3 30% makes it obvious, but the shear setup in tandem with the llj, our front sitting nearby acting as a trigger, and immense instability makes it a great set up for us.

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Down in OC MD for the weekend through early next week, cant say i'm not a little interested in the setup on Sunday.

You can see the good shear sinking south on the northern periphery of the best instability. The NAM 700mb wind maps illustrate this very well (on an iPhone or else I would post it myself) , with the northern mid atlantic in the rrq of the h7 jet and which sits near the northern fringes of very high instability values.

Once we get convective initiation, if this sinks southward with the front Sunday afternoon and evening, there will be good support for organized convection with continued height falls past 00z Sunday. There should be additional damaging wind potential near the Mason Dixon line eastward to Southern NJ where the instability initially is juxtaposed with 30-45kt 700mb jet streak as well.

Love your insight and hope you continue to post (even if it's from your iPhone). Thanks for joining us temporarily lol!

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Love your insight and hope you continue to post (even if it's from your iPhone). Thanks for joining us temporarily lol!

No problem bud -- you guys have a great crew down here, reading through the live thread during the derecho was great.

Some models have been trending a bit farther north with the best shear for Sunday which could eventually be a mitigating factor to organized storms moving through the entire Mid Atlantic -- but we'll see. The N Mid Atlantic looks great for now and I still like the look for the entire SPC 30% area for the most part.

Higher probabilities probably won't be introduced until we can focus on an area of greatest potential. The SPC SREF has been hitting an area just south of the Mason Dixon to DC/Bal and extending into NW DE for a few cycles now.

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No problem bud -- you guys have a great crew down here, reading through the live thread during the derecho was great.

Some models have been trending a bit farther north with the best shear for Sunday which could eventually be a mitigating factor to organized storms moving through the entire Mid Atlantic -- but we'll see. The N Mid Atlantic looks great for now and I still like the look for the entire SPC 30% area for the most part.

Higher probabilities probably won't be introduced until we can focus on an area of greatest potential. The SPC SREF has been hitting an area just south of the Mason Dixon to DC/Bal and extending into NW DE for a few cycles now.

Would we be looking out for a more scattered storm threat or a linear long squall line or derecho type deal?

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