TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL PA...NRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 052037Z - 052230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN CNTRL PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE MAIN THREAT INTO LATE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS ARE W/NWLY...TEMPERATURE HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MLCAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP. SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES CU FIELD IS BECOMING MORE ENHANCED ON VIS IMAGERY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE THE STORMS FORM AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Question for you severe guys. My knowledge is pretty weak but I'm slowly catching on. I was wondering about organized convection in our area and where it initiates. Do we ever get medium to large sized convective systems that originate east of the apps or do all the bigger ones start in the oh valley / midwest first? Also, unless my memory is getting crappy (and it might be), why does is seem that we get fewer squall lines than we used to? My memory of the 80's seems to remember that it was common to get large lines of storms (stretching from s pa all the way to central va?). Not front related stuff either. Just hot afternoon events. Now it seems like random popcorn seems more common. It might have always been this way. I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Doubtful Boo-urns. Us "DCists" should undoubtedly meet up more often than once a year. SNE puts us to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 99 again.. we must have hit 100/101 somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 one a side note bob chill's temp probably isnt 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Boo-urns. Us "DCists" should undoubtedly meet up more often than once a year. SNE puts us to shame. We can gtg more often if we talk about weenies and how much snow falls in God's country, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Boo-urns. Us "DCists" should undoubtedly meet up more often than once a year. SNE puts us to shame. can't. not doing gtgs are the one thing DCers are good at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Boo-urns. Us "DCists" should undoubtedly meet up more often than once a year. SNE puts us to shame. Sorry, I'll definitely be there Saturday. So if you don't gotta help Pops out, I best be seeing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 one a side note bob chill's temp probably isnt 0 Or calm with lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 DCA hit 100! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 one a side note bob chill's temp probably isnt 0 </p> Yea, not sure what the deal is. Maybe power is out at the weather station. However, virtual Bob Chill has been jamming out with arctic thundersnow for days now. It's pretty bad ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Heads up NE Balt. Suburbs. Got a 40kft'er going up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 DCA hit 100! 105 is the new 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Heads up NE Balt. Suburbs. Got a 40kft'er going up.. Please move south! Please move south! Please move south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 105 is the new 100 I think I've had enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Heads up NE Balt. Suburbs. Got a 40kft'er going up.. That cell going into Adams County may give Northern Carroll a good soaking if it holds together. When that core collapses someone could see a wet microburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Question for you severe guys. My knowledge is pretty weak but I'm slowly catching on. I was wondering about organized convection in our area and where it initiates. Do we ever get medium to large sized convective systems that originate east of the apps or do all the bigger ones start in the oh valley / midwest first? Also, unless my memory is getting crappy (and it might be), why does is seem that we get fewer squall lines than we used to? My memory of the 80's seems to remember that it was common to get large lines of storms (stretching from s pa all the way to central va?). Not front related stuff either. Just hot afternoon events. Now it seems like random popcorn seems more common. It might have always been this way. I'm not sure. I'm not sure how to quantify it but I think the majority of our storms come from the pre-frontal/leeside trough. Though as far as our big MCS+, they probably more often come from west/northwest of the Apps as stuff on the trough doesn't often have enough time to form up in a huge way for most of us. Every now and then we'll get a good line out of the SW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I think I've had enough 100-104 is boring unless there is a destructive derecho 105-108 is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Rain! Thunder! Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 100-104 is boring unless there is a destructive derecho 105-108 is interesting Hopefully Saturday is interesting... I would like to see a 107 and then heay storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I'm not sure how to quantify it but I think the majority of our storms come from the pre-frontal/leeside trough. Though as far as our big MCS+, they probably more often come from west/northwest of the Apps as stuff on the trough doesn't often have enough time to form up in a huge way for most of us. Every now and then we'll get a good line out of the SW too. For the most part, I would quantify a med-large event as one where over 80% of the area is affected. Not just hit and miss blobs. I know there are a zillion variables though so it's really tough to answer my question without having really go into detail. I grew up boating on the Chesapeake almost every weekend from May-Nov. We got caught in alot of tough weather. Many of the lines that came through affected the entire bay. Narrow but long lines of storms. Plenty of wind with them. For the most part, they looked the same while approaching. Really dark line in front with orange or green sky behind. I just don't see that very often anymore. I could be totally off base but it seems like it was more common than it is now. Just like overrunning snow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 For the most part, I would quantify a med-large event as one where over 80% of the area is affected. Not just hit and miss blobs. I know there are a zillion variables though so it's really tough to answer my question without having really go into detail. I grew up boating on the Chesapeake almost every weekend from May-Nov. We got caught in alot of tough weather. Many of the lines that came through affected the entire bay. Narrow but long lines of storms. Plenty of wind with them. For the most part, they looked the same while approaching. Really dark line in front with orange or green sky behind. I just don't see that very often anymore. I could be totally off base but it seems like it was more common than it is now. Just like overrunning snow...lol Maybe somebody can explain the meteorology of it, but I don't remember us getting too many areas of rain and storms like the blob that moved through WV and swVA today. Not only slow moving but also solid, large area of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 mappy is cashing in this eve it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Maybe somebody can explain the meteorology of it, but I don't remember us getting too many areas of rain and storms like the blob that moved through WV and swVA today. Not only slow moving but also solid, large area of heavy rain. this has been a really stormy week or so for good chunks of the eastern half of the country.. almost exceptionally so. swva in particular seems to get hit every day lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Please move south! Please move south! Please move south! A little more please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Hearing lots of thunder but getting no rain at all.....interesting radar shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Looking th threatening here in towson on york road looking north. No fun running for an hour and half in this humidity. Outflow is refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Just started raining lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 mappy is cashing in this eve it seems Been storming for over an hour, one after another... It's great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Just started raining lightly The other side of 83 has been getting it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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