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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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There is also a lot of DCAPE.

- I get what you're saying but I"m just not sure how your thinking of not a widespread thing is any different than what others are expecting. It's not a "new" idea - SPC even said it would be a "small" cluster at best.

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There is also a lot of DCAPE.

- I get what you're saying but I"m just not sure how your thinking of not a widespread thing is any different than what others are expecting. It's not a "new" idea - SPC even said it would be a "small" cluster at best.

Well to be honest, in short, I expect next to nothing.

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Had to get the kids out today. So beat the heat and headed 25 miles North to Cunningham Falls Lake. The temp dropped to 88, there was a wonderful breeze and the water temp was fantastic!

that is why they put camp david up there....

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AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL PA...NRN MD  

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE  

 

VALID 052037Z - 052230Z  

 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT  

 

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN  

CNTRL PA. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE MAIN THREAT INTO LATE AFTERNOON  

WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  

 

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS ARE W/NWLY...TEMPERATURE HAVE  

CLIMBED INTO THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR  

70. MLCAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS THE CAPPING  

INVERSION OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING STORMS TO  

DEVELOP. SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES CU FIELD IS BECOMING MORE  

ENHANCED ON VIS IMAGERY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL  

COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE THE STORMS FORM AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.  

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Question for you severe guys. My knowledge is pretty weak but I'm slowly catching on. I was wondering about organized convection in our area and where it initiates. Do we ever get medium to large sized convective systems that originate east of the apps or do all the bigger ones start in the oh valley / midwest first?

Also, unless my memory is getting crappy (and it might be), why does is seem that we get fewer squall lines than we used to? My memory of the 80's seems to remember that it was common to get large lines of storms (stretching from s pa all the way to central va?). Not front related stuff either. Just hot afternoon events. Now it seems like random popcorn seems more common. It might have always been this way. I'm not sure.

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Boo-urns.

Us "DCists" should undoubtedly meet up more often than once a year. SNE puts us to shame.

Sorry, I'll definitely be there Saturday. So if you don't gotta help Pops out, I best be seeing you.

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