Kmlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Slight risk up for DC area 15% wind, 5% hail. The 1300z outlook also had a slight risk into the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 2pm DCA: 99 (high) IAD: 95 (96) BWI: 98 (high) 94.6 at my house, 94.8 high so far, 2nd warmest of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Notice http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false and http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false and http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false The NAM tends to overdo low-level rotation (east of the Apps especially) in an overall W/NW flow, but there is a little support from the GFS for the chance of some rotating storms. Overall speed shear is fairly weak, though, in addition to somewhat high LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The NAM tends to overdo low-level rotation (east of the Apps especially) in an overall W/NW flow, but there is a little support from the GFS for the chance of some rotating storms. Overall speed shear is fairly weak, though, in addition to somewhat high LCLs. Haven't been following this stuff long enought to know what models tend to overdue. Thanks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Had to get the kids out today. So beat the heat and headed 25 miles North to Cunningham Falls Lake. The temp dropped to 88, there was a wonderful breeze and the water temp was fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Is anyone else seeing the severe threat the SPC has us in for today. No activity in SC PA, and I'm not overly impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Is anyone else seeing the severe threat the SPC has us in for today. No activity in SC PA, and I'm not overly impressed. It's not even 3pm yet... chill. There's a decent Cu field up there, and there's a nice 3500 J/kg SFC CAPE bulls-eye over north-central MD. Not saying stuff's gonna happen, but there's no reason to write it off right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It's not even 3pm yet... chill. There's a decent Cu field up there, and there's a nice 3500 J/kg SFC CAPE bulls-eye over north-central MD. Not saying stuff's gonna happen, but there's no reason to write it off right now. No I'm fine Mark, and I am aware of the unstable environment and favorable Lapse rates, but I'm not in love with a trigger that could get us any more than pulse type storms. I will go look into it some more, I think there will be a few cells, but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 2pm DCA: 99 (high) IAD: 95 (96) BWI: 98 (high) 94.6 at my house, 94.8 high so far, 2nd warmest of the year DCA: 99 IAD: 96 BWI: 97 94.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 No I'm fine Mark, and I am aware of the unstable environment and favorable Lapse rates, but I'm not in love with a trigger that could get us any more than pulse type storms. I will go look into it some more, I think there will be a few cells, but not too much. I'm pretty sure that's what everyone thought (even SPC). It was never supposed to be widespread. Also, live radar is not always everything, we've seen plenty of times when something pops right over the DC area - there doesn't have to be activity in PA for us to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I'm pretty sure that's what everyone thought (even SPC). It was never supposed to be widespread. Also, live radar is not always everything, we've seen plenty of times when something pops right over the DC area - there doesn't have to be activity in PA for us to get something. Kenny, I am well aware of that possibility There is a little cell that is up on the md line, let's see what it does. It's hard to explain my point, so I'll just wait to see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 There is also a lot of DCAPE. - I get what you're saying but I"m just not sure how your thinking of not a widespread thing is any different than what others are expecting. It's not a "new" idea - SPC even said it would be a "small" cluster at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I'm gonna swell up like whoa this weekend.... How's next weekend look? Cooler I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 There is also a lot of DCAPE. - I get what you're saying but I"m just not sure how your thinking of not a widespread thing is any different than what others are expecting. It's not a "new" idea - SPC even said it would be a "small" cluster at best. Well to be honest, in short, I expect next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I'm gonna swell up like whoa this weekend.... How's next weekend look? Cooler I hope? I'm gonna go way out on a limb here and say, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 100.7 with a 7 mph wind blowing over the sensor.. It's Hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Record from 1990 tied last hour at Richmond with 101°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I'm gonna go way out on a limb here and say, yes. Thank goodness, will I see you next Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Thank goodness, will I see you next Saturday? Shhh, keep that on the DL. I'm married. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Shhh, keep that on the DL. I'm married. lol... Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Still 99 at DCA. Have to think we got it somewhere in there, but I guess we will wait until 5:30ish unless someone at CWG bothers the observers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Argh another 99 ob. Seeing 100 show is so exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Argh another 99 ob. Seeing 100 show is so exciting. Just become a fan of DMH at the Science Ctr, they hit 100 a lot, thank UHI, or thank a busted thermometer according to JB2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 lol... Oops Also, still iffy. Pops is being wishy-washy about what he wants to do with packing up the house in NY. Regardless I'll probably show Thurs night if you're around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Had to get the kids out today. So beat the heat and headed 25 miles North to Cunningham Falls Lake. The temp dropped to 88, there was a wonderful breeze and the water temp was fantastic! that is why they put camp david up there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Also, still iffy. Pops is being wishy-washy about what he wants to do with packing up the house in NY. Regardless I'll probably show Thurs night if you're around. Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Leaving for vacation 600 mile south tomorrow. Who knew going south would help me escape the heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I almost got 2nd degree burns from my steering wheel. I'm over it. In Nino's and -nao's we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Just become a fan of DMH at the Science Ctr, they hit 100 a lot, thank UHI, or thank a busted thermometer according to JB2 what does the weather channel think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 what does the weather channel think? If only the weather channel knew how to think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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