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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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The NAM tends to overdo low-level rotation (east of the Apps especially) in an overall W/NW flow, but there is a little support from the GFS for the chance of some rotating storms. Overall speed shear is fairly weak, though, in addition to somewhat high LCLs.

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The NAM tends to overdo low-level rotation (east of the Apps especially) in an overall W/NW flow, but there is a little support from the GFS for the chance of some rotating storms. Overall speed shear is fairly weak, though, in addition to somewhat high LCLs.

Haven't been following this stuff long enought to know what models tend to overdue. Thanks, though.

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Is anyone else seeing the severe threat the SPC has us in for today. No activity in SC PA, and I'm not overly impressed.

It's not even 3pm yet... chill. There's a decent Cu field up there, and there's a nice 3500 J/kg SFC CAPE bulls-eye over north-central MD. Not saying stuff's gonna happen, but there's no reason to write it off right now.

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It's not even 3pm yet... chill. There's a decent Cu field up there, and there's a nice 3500 J/kg SFC CAPE bulls-eye over north-central MD. Not saying stuff's gonna happen, but there's no reason to write it off right now.

No I'm fine Mark, and I am aware of the unstable environment and favorable Lapse rates, but I'm not in love with a trigger that could get us any more than pulse type storms. I will go look into it some more, I think there will be a few cells, but not too much.

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No I'm fine Mark, and I am aware of the unstable environment and favorable Lapse rates, but I'm not in love with a trigger that could get us any more than pulse type storms. I will go look into it some more, I think there will be a few cells, but not too much.

I'm pretty sure that's what everyone thought (even SPC). It was never supposed to be widespread.

Also, live radar is not always everything, we've seen plenty of times when something pops right over the DC area - there doesn't have to be activity in PA for us to get something.

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I'm pretty sure that's what everyone thought (even SPC). It was never supposed to be widespread.

Also, live radar is not always everything, we've seen plenty of times when something pops right over the DC area - there doesn't have to be activity in PA for us to get something.

Kenny, I am well aware of that possibility :) There is a little cell that is up on the md line, let's see what it does. It's hard to explain my point, so I'll just wait to see what develops.

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There is also a lot of DCAPE.

- I get what you're saying but I"m just not sure how your thinking of not a widespread thing is any different than what others are expecting. It's not a "new" idea - SPC even said it would be a "small" cluster at best.

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There is also a lot of DCAPE.

- I get what you're saying but I"m just not sure how your thinking of not a widespread thing is any different than what others are expecting. It's not a "new" idea - SPC even said it would be a "small" cluster at best.

Well to be honest, in short, I expect next to nothing.

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Had to get the kids out today. So beat the heat and headed 25 miles North to Cunningham Falls Lake. The temp dropped to 88, there was a wonderful breeze and the water temp was fantastic!

that is why they put camp david up there....

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