Kmlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 fair enough, we'll see if anything comes of it. Hopefully we buck the trend of storms containing mostly wind. Region desperately needs some rain. Also, notice that they seem to only mention an "isolated damaging wind" threat. So it seems that while they do have confidence in something - it probably won't be super widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 how many times has DCA strung together 100+ 3 days or more? ever? once 4 (1930) two times of three i believe is record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Also, notice that they seem to only mention an "isolated damaging wind" threat. So it seems that while they do have confidence in something - it probably won't be super widespread the derecho effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 once 4 (1930) two times of three i believe is record Thanks for the info...also saw your blog post after posting the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Storms coming through central WV...warning for my area just issued and the Watch issued about the same time until 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I don't understand these great radar echoes. These storms lately are all wind and very little rain. Total shot in the dark, but perhaps this phenomenon is related to the Sterling radar upgrades that took place last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 lol...the min was 80 With DPs in the low-mid 60s. Usually when we have an 80+ low it seems like we are ugly humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 We're 8 degrees and 3 hours ahead of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 We're 8 degrees and 3 hours ahead of yesterday. 107 for the high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 DCA: 97 IAD: 93 BWI: 96 93.2 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Notice http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=EHI&level=3000&unit=M&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false and http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=EHI&level=1000&unit=M&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false and http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=CAPE&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 During 1980, 1991, and 1997, DC reached 95 on seven straight days, but in no prior year has it reached 95 on eight straight days. So, tomorrow should set a new record for consecutive 95+ days. To correct the record (courtesy of Ian's recent post on the NBC 4 website), DCA did reach 95 on eight straight days in 1987,* 1993,* and 2002. So today ties that record streak, and tomorrow will almost certainly break it. * Edited to add 1987 and 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 97 at noon. I wonder how often we have been hotter at noon. I can't recall any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 97 at noon. I wonder how often we have been hotter at noon. I can't recall any. Last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 97 at noon. I wonder how often we have been hotter at noon. I can't recall any. 2010 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/07/yesterday_100_earliest_and_for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Last week. that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The NAM is showing 106-108+ for DC on Saturday... the all-time record seems like it could be in danger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 During 1980, 1991, and 1997, DC reached 95 on seven straight days, but in no prior year has it reached 95 on eight straight days. So, tomorrow should set a new record for consecutive 95+ days. However, setting 95 as the threshold for extreme heat is somewhat arbitrary. Highs during the last seven days (June 28-July 4) have averaged 98.3, whereas in 1930 there was a streak of 10 days (July 18-27) that reached at least 93, with an average high of 99.5 (six of those days reached at least 100). Thinking back on this post, a possibly conservative estimate of 100 (Thurs), 100 (Fri), 102 (Sat) gets us to an average high of 99.0 during the ten day stretch. We would need 307 total degrees (102.333 average high) over those three days to equal a ten day stretch with an average high of 99.5. I think it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Slight risk up for DC area 15% wind, 5% hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Slight risk up for DC area 15% wind, 5% hail. The 1300z outlook also had a slight risk into the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 2pm DCA: 99 (high) IAD: 95 (96) BWI: 98 (high) 94.6 at my house, 94.8 high so far, 2nd warmest of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Notice http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false and http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false and http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false The NAM tends to overdo low-level rotation (east of the Apps especially) in an overall W/NW flow, but there is a little support from the GFS for the chance of some rotating storms. Overall speed shear is fairly weak, though, in addition to somewhat high LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The NAM tends to overdo low-level rotation (east of the Apps especially) in an overall W/NW flow, but there is a little support from the GFS for the chance of some rotating storms. Overall speed shear is fairly weak, though, in addition to somewhat high LCLs. Haven't been following this stuff long enought to know what models tend to overdue. Thanks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Had to get the kids out today. So beat the heat and headed 25 miles North to Cunningham Falls Lake. The temp dropped to 88, there was a wonderful breeze and the water temp was fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Is anyone else seeing the severe threat the SPC has us in for today. No activity in SC PA, and I'm not overly impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Is anyone else seeing the severe threat the SPC has us in for today. No activity in SC PA, and I'm not overly impressed. It's not even 3pm yet... chill. There's a decent Cu field up there, and there's a nice 3500 J/kg SFC CAPE bulls-eye over north-central MD. Not saying stuff's gonna happen, but there's no reason to write it off right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It's not even 3pm yet... chill. There's a decent Cu field up there, and there's a nice 3500 J/kg SFC CAPE bulls-eye over north-central MD. Not saying stuff's gonna happen, but there's no reason to write it off right now. No I'm fine Mark, and I am aware of the unstable environment and favorable Lapse rates, but I'm not in love with a trigger that could get us any more than pulse type storms. I will go look into it some more, I think there will be a few cells, but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 2pm DCA: 99 (high) IAD: 95 (96) BWI: 98 (high) 94.6 at my house, 94.8 high so far, 2nd warmest of the year DCA: 99 IAD: 96 BWI: 97 94.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 No I'm fine Mark, and I am aware of the unstable environment and favorable Lapse rates, but I'm not in love with a trigger that could get us any more than pulse type storms. I will go look into it some more, I think there will be a few cells, but not too much. I'm pretty sure that's what everyone thought (even SPC). It was never supposed to be widespread. Also, live radar is not always everything, we've seen plenty of times when something pops right over the DC area - there doesn't have to be activity in PA for us to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I'm pretty sure that's what everyone thought (even SPC). It was never supposed to be widespread. Also, live radar is not always everything, we've seen plenty of times when something pops right over the DC area - there doesn't have to be activity in PA for us to get something. Kenny, I am well aware of that possibility There is a little cell that is up on the md line, let's see what it does. It's hard to explain my point, so I'll just wait to see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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