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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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yeah it's getting there i think. im sure there are some stretches with high/higher avgs. but as noted in 95+ streak thread we look to beat that by at least 2 days.

During 1980, 1991, and 1997, DC reached 95 on seven straight days, but in no prior year has it reached 95 on eight straight days. So, tomorrow should set a new record for consecutive 95+ days. However, setting 95 as the threshold for extreme heat is somewhat arbitrary. Highs during the last seven days (June 28-July 4) have averaged 98.3, whereas in 1930 there was a streak of 10 days (July 18-27) that reached at least 93, with an average high of 99.5 (six of those days reached at least 100).

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Highs during the last seven days (June 28-July 4) have averaged 98.3, whereas in 1930 there was a streak of 10 days (July 18-27) that reached at least 93, with an average high of 99.5 (six of those days reached at least 100).

Thursday through Saturday should give us 10 and should boost the average high during the streak.

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Garrett county really get slammed with this storm.

Oakland [Garrett Co, MD] public reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 07:15 PM EDT --

Swanton [Garrett Co, MD] public reports HAIL of egg size (M2.00 INCH) at 07:27 PM EDT --

Golf ball and Egg Sized hail being reported in Garrett County..

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0705 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA...NRN WV...MD PANHANDLE...NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...

VALID 050005Z - 050100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMMG WIND/HAIL THREAT IS CONFINED TO FAR ERN PORTIONS OF

WW 461...AND E OF WW 461 INTO THE MD PANHANDLE AND NRN VA. A NEW WW

IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING OUT OF

SWRN PA/ERN WV SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MD PANHANDLE AND NRN

VA...CONSOLIDATING WITH A STRONGER AND INITIALLY DISCRETE STORM OVER

GARRETT COUNTY MD. EXTRAPOLATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND NELY

BACKGROUND FLOW SAMPLED AT 10-20 KTS PER LWX/PBZ VWP DATA WILL FAVOR

CONTINUED PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE SE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL

SLOWLY DECREASE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...RICH LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ WILL MAINTAIN

MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. MORE RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWED A

GRADUAL WEAKENING OF TSTMS...BUT GIVEN SUPPORTIVE DOWNSTREAM

ENVIRONMENT...A DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THREAT COULD

PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO NRN VA.

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This won't be helpful...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

813 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

MDC001-043-WVC027-031-057-065-050045-

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-120705T0045Z/

WASHINGTON MD-MORGAN WV-HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-ALLEGANY MD-MINERAL WV-

813 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT

FOR MINERAL...ALLEGANY...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...MORGAN AND WASHINGTON

COUNTIES...

AT 812 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INGLESMITH TO FORT ASHBY TO 7

MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROMNEY...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF

DOLLARS AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

820 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

EASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 817 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF VALLEY VIEW TO 8 MILES

NORTHWEST OF FISHERS BRIDGE TO 18 MILES WEST OF LARGENT...AND WERE

MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

831 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHEASTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 830 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE

COUNTY TO SOUTHWESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST

AT 35 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO

THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

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Uh oh

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

838 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

MDC043-VAC069-WVC003-027-065-050100-

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-120705T0100Z/

WASHINGTON MD-FREDERICK VA-MORGAN WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-BERKELEY WV-

838 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

FOR BERKELEY...HAMPSHIRE...MORGAN...FREDERICK AND WASHINGTON

COUNTIES...

AT 834 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM VALLEY VIEW TO RIDGE TO TIMBER RIDGE...AND WERE MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND IS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

[snip]

THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND IS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. SEEK

SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE ON A LOWER FLOOR OR BASEMENT AND

STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

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