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July 1-8, 2012 Heat & Storms


Herb@MAWS

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while not impressed by H8 temps on the 12z IAD sounding, they are a bit misleading...the inversion associated with the EML is at around 750 mb where temperatures are around 18C...if we completely mix out this afternoon, taking the 750 mb temperature and warming it dry adibatically you get surface temps around 42C (NOTE: approximation..not forecast)...so this is a case where H8 temps from the 12z sounding aren't the best predictor...

wont an eml usually prevent mixing?

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It's only initialized from the 0 hour RAP fields after that it's a different model, so I'm not surprised by the solution divergence.

Edit: the HRRR is also not initialized by NCEP RAP it uses a newer experimental version (e.g., essentially an updated version of WRF along with some updated parameterizations and data sets).

Thanks.

12z NAM forecast sounding

post-1746-0-98172300-1341670636_thumb.pn

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Many areas should be AOA 100 by noon. DCA jumped 7 degrees in an hour with clear skies

and little wind. 850 mb temps around 72 degrees F.

Of note, Baltimore Inner Harbor/MD Sci. Center has reached AOA 100 each day this month but one and

poised to do so in a handful of hours. Probably another modern record.

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NWS in Indianapolis has upped their forecast to 107. Like DCA, their all-time record is 106.

that's insanely awesome...i wish we had a better chance at our all time record...seems like a wasted opportunity.

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Went out yesterday evening to do some crabbing, and besides being beautiful, temps on the water weren't bad. Then back out this morning for a few more before the real heat hit, but by the time we got back to the ramp it was already sweltering.

For the rest of the weekend, a bushel and a half with friends in the AC!

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That's actually what I saw in the metar before I even looked at temp/td...i love big jumps

yeah.. those obs are always fun. next one might be critical for the all time record. if we can add another 2-3 it might still be in play.. im skeptical but we'll see.

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spc looks to put a watch up to the north. their circle and stuff makes it look like n md might get clipped tho radar suggests otherwise for now... watch the back end for more development south i suppose. not totally in agreement with their southern extent of the slight but worth eyeing.

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