Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 while not impressed by H8 temps on the 12z IAD sounding, they are a bit misleading...the inversion associated with the EML is at around 750 mb where temperatures are around 18C...if we completely mix out this afternoon, taking the 750 mb temperature and warming it dry adibatically you get surface temps around 42C (NOTE: approximation..not forecast)...so this is a case where H8 temps from the 12z sounding aren't the best predictor... wont an eml usually prevent mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 It's only initialized from the 0 hour RAP fields after that it's a different model, so I'm not surprised by the solution divergence. Edit: the HRRR is also not initialized by NCEP RAP it uses a newer experimental version (e.g., essentially an updated version of WRF along with some updated parameterizations and data sets). Thanks. 12z NAM forecast sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 wont an eml usually prevent mixing? Not as modeled today it seems...fully mixes out on the NAM. 12z NAM 0-hour forecast http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=726&sounding.y=304&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false 12 NAM 9-hour forecast http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=726&sounding.y=304&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=07&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=09¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Also, see 12z RAP, fully mixed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 10am roundup DCA: 92/75 (S @ 7) IAD: 93/73 BWI: 93/72 me: 92.5 at time of obs, currently 94.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Many areas should be AOA 100 by noon. DCA jumped 7 degrees in an hour with clear skies and little wind. 850 mb temps around 72 degrees F. Of note, Baltimore Inner Harbor/MD Sci. Center has reached AOA 100 each day this month but one and poised to do so in a handful of hours. Probably another modern record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Other fun notes from around the country: 89 at O'Hare and Detroit, 91 at Indianapolis at 8am local. NWS in Indianapolis has upped their forecast to 107. Like DCA, their all-time record is 106. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 NWS in Indianapolis has upped their forecast to 107. Like DCA, their all-time record is 106. that's insanely awesome...i wish we had a better chance at our all time record...seems like a wasted opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Already a pocket of 4500 SBCAPE in the area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like we've topped off our morning ascent. Now the struggle upward begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Im thinking positive with this move, maybe I'll burn off some water weight I've put on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Went out yesterday evening to do some crabbing, and besides being beautiful, temps on the water weren't bad. Then back out this morning for a few more before the real heat hit, but by the time we got back to the ramp it was already sweltering. For the rest of the weekend, a bushel and a half with friends in the AC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 DCA 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 DCA 99 West wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Boom DCA: 99 IAD: 96 BWI: 97 me: 95.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Only 90 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 West wind! That's actually what I saw in the metar before I even looked at temp/td...i love big jumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Figured it would jump when the winds shifted. 99 @ 11AM has to be one of the most impressive ever and although 107 is a reach, it's definitely still possible... although ~105 seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Figured it would jump when the winds shifted. 99 @ 11AM has to be one of the most impressive ever and although 107 is a reach, it's definitely still possible... although ~105 seems more likely. DCA was 97 at 11am on the day in 2010 where it hit 100 at noon. Ian has a post about this somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Only 90 up here. Ditto in Columbia area. AM low was 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like we've topped off our morning ascent. Now the struggle upward begins. 11 am temp. at BWI just lurched to 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 IAD 96 with DP at 72, Just soupy outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 That's actually what I saw in the metar before I even looked at temp/td...i love big jumps yeah.. those obs are always fun. next one might be critical for the all time record. if we can add another 2-3 it might still be in play.. im skeptical but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 DCA was 97 at 11am on the day in 2010 where it hit 100 at noon. Ian has a post about this somewhere. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/07/yesterday_100_earliest_and_for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 http://voices.washin...st_and_for.html I was thinking about the spreadsheet one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Oppressive on the beach in Ocean City right now. Many people are here for about a half hour, but then are making their way to the pools instead. Sand is ridiculously hot and the ocean is (or feels) unusually warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 spc looks to put a watch up to the north. their circle and stuff makes it look like n md might get clipped tho radar suggests otherwise for now... watch the back end for more development south i suppose. not totally in agreement with their southern extent of the slight but worth eyeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 dc hit 101 at 11:35 according to observers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 DCA @ 100 at 11:37am KDCA 071537Z VRB05KT 10SM SCT250 38/22 A2991 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 first three in a row since 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Noon DCA: 100 IAD: 97 BWI: 98 me: 98.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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