JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion

[Dsnowx53]

Dxsnow: Much thanks to your very detailed analysis. I understand the synoptic setup on that day much better now.

I would also like to point out that Long Island's SBCAPE was at a marginal 1500-2000 KJ during the time the storms hit them. In contrast, NJ's was above 3000 KJ. Further, Long Island's lifted index was between -1 and -3*C prior to the storms, while NYC's was -5. I think that the factors you described above overcompensated for the lack of LI and CAPE.

I really thought that southern Brooklyn and Queens was going to get slammed from that severe cell in NE NJ that was drifting southeast. That NE NJ cell had a 2.0" hail marker with an updraft over 40,000 feet. I also assumed that the seabreeze boundary winds would intensify the storm even more when it approached my area. However, when I saw that cell fizzle out into thin air, I almost got enraged. I haven't seen a severe storm (outside of Tropical Storm Irene) in my area for about 3 years.

On Sunday afternoon, I think we just area, between NE NJ and SW CT, where there just wasn't enough support for stronger t-storms. Best MLCAPE was to west. While best shear and convergence, along the sea-breeze front, was to our east.

No problem!

When storm chasing, I often found that the best storms did not necessarily form on the CAPE bullseyes. It's often the spots where you sacrifice a bit of instability for more shear that have the best storms. 1500-2000KJ is still not bad, and when you combine that with a sea breeze boundary as an additional lifting mechanism, along with the better speed and directional shear in Long Island from the sea breeze, that easily overrides the increased instability and lifted index in NJ.

And as weathergun pointed out, that area in NE NJ was out of the CAPE bullseye, but was also well NW of the sea-breeze boundary. Those storms were initially in a favorable environment, but since there wasn't much shear, those storms needed the 3000 CAPE to survive...once they entered the weaker CAPE, the shear was too weak to keep the updrafts and downdrafts well separated, so the storms rained themselves out. The sea breeze boundary was too far away.

Often when you notice a storm's movement almost completely come to a halt, it means that there is not nearly enough shear (upper level winds are too slow), and the updraft is very close to the downdraft...those almost always eventually rain themselves out.

[Stormlover74]

The issue is I don't think 101.5 has a round the clock meteorologist..but they do have someone on air that should have been capable of relaying warnings to the public..again though this is nj not Kansas ..how do you get the point across that you need to take shelter immediately?

For those that don't know, NJ 101.5 is a radio station based in NJ and serves mostly central and southern NJ only. At 9:30PM that night the forecast was for mostly clear skies overnight. No mention of rain or thunder at all. Mt. Holly even did a zone update around 11 after the watch had already been in place and they sill went with 20% pops. I think they all believed until the last possible minute that the cells were going to miss to the south. They recorded an 81 MPH gust in Tuckerton, which is in Burlington County. That County wasn't even included in the watch.

[IsentropicLift]

The issue is I don't think 101.5 has a round the clock meteorologist..but they do have someone on air that should have been capable of relaying warnings to the public..again though this is nj not Kansas ..how do you get the point across that you need to take shelter immediately?

My point is that they are pretty much the main radio station down that way. They are too far south for NYC stations and the shore area is too far SE for Philly stations for the most part. They are normally fairly reliable, they give updates every 15 minutes so I really would have expected them to have done a better job. Could have at least mentioned at chance of storms overnight. Whether or not they mentioned the watch after it was issued, I can't speak for that, but by that time a majority of people were probably already home and either watching TV or in bed.

They could have solved this a bit more by actually fully activing that EAS system. I was down there for a tornado warning once, and the whole screen went red for about 15 minutes, no matter what channel you were watching. It certainly made me and the people I was with take the warning more seriously, actually made the hair stand up on the back of my neck.

[Stormlover74]

Yeah the first time I remember it being used was for the blizzard of 93...and it did make us go wow..this storm means business

My point is that they are pretty much the main radio station down that way. They are too far south for NYC stations and the shore area is too far SE for Philly stations for the most part. They are normally fairly reliable, they give updates every 15 minutes so I really would have expected them to have done a better job. Could have at least mentioned at chance of storms overnight. Whether or not they mentioned the watch after it was issued, I can't speak for that, but by that time a majority of people were probably already home and either watching TV or in bed.

They could have solved this a bit more by actually fully activing that EAS system. I was down there for a tornado warning once, and the whole screen went red for about 15 minutes, no matter what channel you were watching. It certainly made me and the people I was with take the warning more seriously, actually made the hair stand up on the back of my neck.

[NEG NAO]

For those that don't know, NJ 101.5 is a radio station based in NJ and serves mostly central and southern NJ only. At 9:30PM that night the forecast was for mostly clear skies overnight. No mention of rain or thunder at all. Mt. Holly even did a zone update around 11 after the watch had already been in place and they sill went with 20% pops. I think they all believed until the last possible minute that the cells were going to miss to the south. They recorded an 81 MPH gust in Tuckerton, which is in Burlington County. That County wasn't even included in the watch.

Alan Kasper had just started his vacation so he was not on duty and Joe Cioffe doesn't work for them anymore - so they must use NWS when Kasper is on vacation..........

Anyways the new 12Z gfs has around a quarter inch qpf late tonight foir whats its worth and les then a tenth of an inch tomorrow afternoon for EWR

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR

[SmokeEater]

For those that don't know, NJ 101.5 is a radio station based in NJ and serves mostly central and southern NJ only. At 9:30PM that night the forecast was for mostly clear skies overnight. No mention of rain or thunder at all. Mt. Holly even did a zone update around 11 after the watch had already been in place and they sill went with 20% pops. I think they all believed until the last possible minute that the cells were going to miss to the south. They recorded an 81 MPH gust in Tuckerton, which is in Burlington County. That County wasn't even included in the watch.

You're completely wrong about 101.5 serving South Jersey. They are not the "main" station in South Jersey, lol. Their station is located in Lawrence Twp., Mercer County, in Central NJ, near Trenton. They specifically serve Central and North Jersey. They used to simulcast on 97.3 down here in SJ, but did away with that a few years ago. Most areas down here, from my county south, that were affected by the derecho, cannot pick up that station. I don't know what more you want them to do? Yes, it wasn't forecasted that great, but no one down here was hurt outside of the campers that were killed. People are acting like 100's were hurt down here by the derecho, which didn't happen. The warnings for it were issued an hour ahead of it, if that isn't enough lead time, I don't know what is. And Tuckerton isn't in Burlington County, it's in Southern Ocean County. And that was the only storm report not in the watch area. And they do say with every watch, "in and close to the watch area".

[HM]

You said that 13 deaths is a failure, I'm not sure how you would convince an 80-year old woman crushed by a tree while sleeping that these weren't what she would think of as run of the mill thunderstorms and that she shouldn't go to sleep at the time she normally would go to sleep. Would stronger language in a warning change her behaviour?

Well I mean, I could rehash everything again for you so you understand my point, but I thought it was clear. I said the warnings were sufficient. Stronger language in a warning is not what I said we need. Also, I fail to see your point about the old woman. I didn't say we could have saved them all. I said that we should go on the assumption that we could have done better forecasting-wise and it could have potentially reduced the amount of fatalities and injuries.

[bluewave]

The NAM tracks that MCS from near DET through our area early tomorrow morning.

It almost looks like an event similar to 5-30-11 with some heavy rains and gusty winds.

[Hailstorm]

It looks as if we may have to stick a fork into Saturday's severe threat as well. We have good EML but there is lots of SBCIN.

[Stormlover74]

That complex over Lake Erie looks pretty healthy at the moment. Let's see how it looks 6 to 8 hours from now. Earlier poor Lonnie Quinn on Channel 2 had those storms in Central PA and timed them to arrive in the city around 11pm. Meanwhile they've completely dissipated (as most models indicated they would).

The NAM tracks that MCS from near DET through our area early tomorrow morning.

It almost looks like an event similar to 5-30-11 with some heavy rains and gusty winds.

[TheTrials]

I doubt the complex survives, the soundings are not supportive of any strong convection other than maybe some thunder and lightning.

[Stormlover74]

Yeah I'm not thinking anything severe but I thought AG said the models were showing 1" of rain (though the GFS certainly isn't)

I doubt the complex survives, the soundings are not supportive of any strong convection other than maybe some thunder and lightning.

[NEG NAO]

I doubt the complex survives, the soundings are not supportive of any strong convection other than maybe some thunder and lightning.

if it starts to break up like the last batch did once it got into eastern PA probably won't survive - BUT the earlier the clearing tomorrow greater the chance for some storms in the afternoon/evening

http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0

[gkrangers]

if it starts to break up like the last batch did once it got into eastern PA probably won't survive - BUT the earlier the clearing tomorrow greater the chance for some storms in the afternoon/evening

http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0

And the greater the chance for ruined BBQs and roof parties.

[TheTrials]

if it starts to break up like the last batch did once it got into eastern PA probably won't survive - BUT the earlier the clearing tomorrow greater the chance for some storms in the afternoon/evening

http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0

They look better for tomorrow, but I don't think it comes all together.

[Allsnow]

And the greater the chance for ruined BBQs and roof parties.

Meh....lets keep it sunny please

[winterwarlock]

that batch looks like it might miss most of us to the south if it survives

[SACRUS]

that batch looks like it might miss most of us to the south if it survives

So long as its gone by mid morning and nothing else develops afterwards. Timing now looks about 6 - 8 hours away. So hopefully its in by 6 and out before noon.

[Diego]

Still impressive at least for the moment.

[mcwx]

Well I mean, I could rehash everything again for you so you understand my point, but I thought it was clear. I said the warnings were sufficient. Stronger language in a warning is not what I said we need. Also, I fail to see your point about the old woman. I didn't say we could have saved them all. I said that we should go on the assumption that we could have done better forecasting-wise and it could have potentially reduced the amount of fatalities and injuries.

my bad. I probably didn't read enough before responding. Re-reading what you wrote, we're on the same page. My belief is that no matter how strongly worded warnings are, not everyone is going to receive them or have the means to receive them, no matte how hard people advocate for it. Some people just won't care.

[TheTrials]

Still impressive at least for the moment.

Will die soon.

[Nikolai]

Not too educated on severe parameters but the dynamics that sustained the derecho into DC on Friday don't look present for NYC today, although the complex certainly looks great on radar... temps were in the 100s with DPs in the 70s in DC on Friday while we're in the low 80s in the city with DPs in the 50s.

[Stormlover74]

NAM has a whopping. 10" overnight and nothing after 8am

[Diego]

Will die soon.

Recent discussion from Okx.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

WARM FRONT APPROACHING ERN PA AT 930 PM. CONVECTION WITH THE WAA

ALOFT AND FRONT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND POPS HAVE BEEN

REMOVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE

ACROSS WRN ZONES...BUT NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

MCS OVER NWRN PA BEGINNING TO TREND SEWD AS COLD POOL DEVELOPS.

THIS COULD DRIVE THE FEATURE S OF THE CWA. AS THE REGION GETS

INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE SECTOR HOWEVER...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR

CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER THE AREA LATE AS THE H5

TROF AXIS APPROACHES. IT APPEARS SPEED CONVERGENCE COULD ASSIST

WITH LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND

EXTENDED THEM THRU SUNRISE TIL THE LLJET WEAKENS.

Convection also not my forte, but I think this means we're screwed (in the screw zone).

[Stormlover74]

By the mcs yes but new storms likely to form (they're going with 70% pop overnight )

Recent discussion from Okx.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

WARM FRONT APPROACHING ERN PA AT 930 PM. CONVECTION WITH THE WAA

ALOFT AND FRONT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND POPS HAVE BEEN

REMOVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE

ACROSS WRN ZONES...BUT NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

MCS OVER NWRN PA BEGINNING TO TREND SEWD AS COLD POOL DEVELOPS.

THIS COULD DRIVE THE FEATURE S OF THE CWA. AS THE REGION GETS

INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE SECTOR HOWEVER...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR

CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER THE AREA LATE AS THE H5

TROF AXIS APPROACHES. IT APPEARS SPEED CONVERGENCE COULD ASSIST

WITH LIFT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND

EXTENDED THEM THRU SUNRISE TIL THE LLJET WEAKENS.

Convection also not my forte, but I think this means we're screwed (in the screw zone).

[Diego]

By the mcs yes but new storms likely to form (they're going with 70% pop overnight )

But though more likely, still speculative.

[winterwarlock]

just on a side note...is it just me or is Amy Freeze of Channel 7 getting hotter and hotter by the day...I think Im in love.

[Isotherm]

A quick check of the radar says sprinklers should go on again tonight. MCS looks aimed well south of us.

[Snowlover76]

just on a side note...is it just me or is Amy Freeze of Channel 7 getting hotter and hotter by the day...I think Im in love.

Is she the one who complemented your manly muscles?

[Hailstorm]

Per SPC mesoanalysis, there is 500-1000 KJ of SBCAPE but virtually no MLCAPE over NYC. The closer you are to the ocean, the better chance of getting an isolated strong storm since SBCAPE is highest near the ocean. Gusty winds would be the main threat as mid- and low-level lapse rates are marginally supportive at 6. Bulk shear is also modest between 25-30 knots. Heavy rainfall is also a threat since there is a good amount of moisture convergence at 15 k/kg. This all assumes that something develops early this morning with the H5 trough coming through.