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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Nobody is having a debate, because nobody can control the weather, whatever happens is going to happen no matter what is said here. All I said is that seeing the destruction first hand has greatly changed my viewpoint on severe thunderstorms, and I am just as much of a an extreme weather nut as the rest of you.

Even when the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms is fairly high on any given day, the chance of actually experiencing severe weather in your location is low. That's why even on a moderate risk day, generally chances are at 45%.

I hope I never see anything like that again in my life, a few strong wind gusts, maybe some small hail, no harm no foul. Downed trees as far as the eye can see, not so good.

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This.

The thing about Irene even is that people were given a chance to prepare for DAYS, there were evacautions, people hunkered down in their basements and were aware of the risks...but you cannot be prepared for a Derecho and take precautions to protect your family or property. People killed while sleeping on the top floor of their house would not have done so if there had been a hurricane, etc. IMO severe storms are the worst weather event. Especially in the summer with people boating, camping and at the beach. I hope that Jily 4th is not too bad as millions of people will likely be boating, camping and outside oblivious of the weather,

Where do you get this stuff? Sure, the tragic story of people killed while camping is one thing - they were in the middle of a forest. But the warnings were issued 30-45 minutes ahead of time. That isn't enough time to take any precautionary steps to protecting family or property for most people?

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I may be in the minority here but I did think the NWS did a good job at getting the warnings out once the storms were approaching. The problem was that even at 8:30 that night the forecast over the radio was for mostly clear skies so people probably went to bed without any thoughts of rain or thunderstorms. Many people were probably already sleeping by the time the warnings went out by me which was roughly 12:30AM. Hopefully people took the watch seriously when it was issued around 10:30PM or so.

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Most severe thunderstorm warnings say the same thing, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail, yet most storms don't actually produce severe conditions. The public has learned to ignore the warnings. Over here, people would take tornado warnings seriously, but in the midwest, people even ignore tornado warnings. Some people actually go outside and look for a tornado. I have yet to see true severe thunderstorm conditions for over a year. The derecho missed me by 30 miles and I barely got any rain or heard thunder, but I saw a lot of lightning.

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Where do you get this stuff? Sure, the tragic story of people killed while camping is one thing - they were in the middle of a forest. But the warnings were issued 30-45 minutes ahead of time. That isn't enough time to take any precautionary steps to protecting family or property for most people?

Putting aside the "should we shouldnt we cheer on severe weather" argument for a second, 30-45 minutes IS NOT a lot of time, considering you are ASSUMING that someone hears or knows of or is informed in some way of the warning the second its put up and has a full 30-45 minutes to prepare, not to mention the fact people aren't always sitting at home waiting to hunker down, people are on the roads, they are camping, they are at sporting events, they are dining out, etc.

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I feel like there needs to be more real time storm reports from spotters, because you're right, often times a warning is issued and there are no reports of damaging winds or large hail, just what the radar is picking up. I'm thinking primarily of the storms Friday night in south Jersey. As we watched the derecho move through MD, VA, DC, very few people thought the northern edge would be as severe as it was. The radar looked like some run of the mill nighttime storms moving through and then all over a sudden they hit the delaware and just exploded. Very hard to warn people when storms are rapidly intensifying right over a particular area. And at that hour it probably took some time to get warnings out for the rest of south Jersey including AC, but again not much people could do anyway. This isn't tornado alley where people might listen for sirens and be able to head to their basements.

Most severe thunderstorm warnings say the same thing, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail, yet most storms don't actually produce severe conditions. The public has learned to ignore the warnings. Over here, people would take tornado warnings seriously, but in the midwest, people even ignore tornado warnings. Some people actually go outside and look for a tornado. I have yet to see true severe thunderstorm conditions for over a year. The derecho missed me by 30 miles and I barely got any rain or heard thunder, but I saw a lot of lightning.

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Hopefully July 4th there will not be any derechos - holidays are never a good time for severe weather for obvious reasons but chances are above average looking at the data that somewhere in the upper midwest and or northeast/mid atlantic is going to experience severe weather especially suspect is upper midwest in fact the Chicago NWS office mentioned the possibility of an MCS this morning - has anyone seen any discussions about the possibility from the offices around the northeast ? Also 12Z NAM has quite abit of precip for july 4th just northeast of NYC metro - who knows how accurate that is this far in advance......

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Where do you get this stuff? Sure, the tragic story of people killed while camping is one thing - they were in the middle of a forest. But the warnings were issued 30-45 minutes ahead of time. That isn't enough time to take any precautionary steps to protecting family or property for most people?

AS Trials, said, 30-45 min is nothing to prepare. And how many people are checking the weather at 10pm on a Friday night? People are driving, at bars, etc, so 30 min is nothing at all. And nobody really heeds Severe thunderstorm warnings, or knows what they even mean.

And Earthlight, the debate was regarding how some people comment on severe weather possibilities with excitement with no thought of the consequences while cheering on tornados and destruction, while others sensibly react to that excitement in the face of said destruction and injury/death. Its a natural discussion in a forum titled "severe weather/convective discussion" following a catastrophic derecho just to our south.

Some posters debate the vegatation around CPK ad nauseum, and others reflect on the human toll of severe weather. To each his own. That is what makes this weather board unique. It adds human element and discussion to science.

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AS Trials, said, 30-45 min is nothing to prepare.

How, exactly, do you propose the National Weather Service forecasters begin issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over 40 to 60 or more minutes in advance? Is that the kind of lead time you're looking for?

Convection is short-fused and mesoscale by nature. These things are not easily forecasted. They can't be seen for days in advance, or even hours in advance.

And regarding the second topic, yes we know that severe weather causes damage. People don't cheer on death and destruction, they cheer on extreme weather for the love of the hobby or profession and in hopes to increase knowledge and awareness on the topic.

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How, exactly, do you propose the National Weather Service forecasters begin issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings over 40 to 60 or more minutes in advance? Is that the kind of lead time you're looking for?

Convection is short-fused and mesoscale by nature. These things are not easily forecasted. They can't be seen for days in advance, or even hours in advance.

And regarding the second topic, yes we know that severe weather causes damage. People don't cheer on death and destruction, they cheer on extreme weather for the love of the hobby or profession and in hopes to increase knowledge and awareness on the topic.

I dont believe anyone is suggesting there could be more lead time, merely that the time given isn't as much as it seems.

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AS Trials, said, 30-45 min is nothing to prepare. And how many people are checking the weather at 10pm on a Friday night? People are driving, at bars, etc, so 30 min is nothing at all. And nobody really heeds Severe thunderstorm warnings, or knows what they even mean.

And Earthlight, the debate was regarding how some people comment on severe weather possibilities with excitement with no thought of the consequences while cheering on tornados and destruction, while others sensibly react to that excitement in the face of said destruction and injury/death. Its a natural discussion in a forum titled "severe weather/convective discussion" following a catastrophic derecho just to our south.

Some posters debate the vegatation around CPK ad nauseum, and others reflect on the human toll of severe weather. To each his own. That is what makes this weather board unique. It adds human element and discussion to science.

I understand, and clearly the warning lead time isn't ideal, not to mention people's response to warnings which is a whole separate area of research. My main issue was claiming there was "no way" people could prepare for an incoming thunderstorm when that is clearly not true for many people.

As to why people weren't expecting a storm of that magnitude, people will always be people. The warnings emphasized the strength of the storms and while I wasn't in the local area I'm sure there was media coverage. Regardless of the strength of the storm (or even hurricane or snowstorm, for the sake of the argument) you're always going to have people who either don't know it is coming, don't care it is coming, or have a mistrust of warnings/meteorologists.

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I was up to 11 that night......watched and read through thread in mid atlantic region. When i retired for the evening radar showed no evidences of strong storms coming to snj......no watch out or media attention on that area....was shock to see when i woke up that a storm even effected them...not calling anyone out but it was poor nowcasting and crappy lead time....but it happens and thats weather....jakes argument of people being people is also correct...but if one wants to sit here and say forcast was great....thats so far from truth

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I was up to 11 that night......watched and read through thread in mid atlantic region. When i retired for the evening radar showed no evidences of strong storms coming to snj......no watch out or media attention on that area....was shock to see when i woke up that a storm even effected them...not calling anyone out but it was poor nowcasting and crappy lead time....but it happens and thats weather....jakes argument of people being people is also correct...but if one wants to sit here and say forcast was great....thats so far from truth

a lot of truth in here.

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Areas not included in that watch had substantial effects....if u want to go tit for tat....and how many got the watch notification at 10pm? Alot less then i would say at 10am....even u posted a graphic about how poor lead time the spc had...no ill feelings....just discussion

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I was up to 11 that night......watched and read through thread in mid atlantic region. When i retired for the evening radar showed no evidences of strong storms coming to snj......no watch out or media attention on that area....was shock to see when i woke up that a storm even effected them...not calling anyone out but it was poor nowcasting and crappy lead time....but it happens and thats weather....jakes argument of people being people is also correct...but if one wants to sit here and say forcast was great....thats so far from truth

People down here were prepared, the watch was issued in ample time, with warnings an hour ahead of the derecho's arrival. It may have been tough to forecast from a few days out, but now casting was fine. Even when the northern part that hit us was weaker back in MD, it was still warned with ample time. And forky, I'm all for everyone having a wx radio, but to expect campers in South Jersey to have one? This isn't the Midwest where we get severe wx every week. Not making an excuse, just saying.

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Areas not included in that watch had substantial effects....if u want to go tit for tat....and how many got the watch notification at 10pm? Alot less then i would say at 10am....even u posted a graphic about how poor lead time the spc had...no ill feelings....just discussion

The severe wind reports cut off exactly where the watch did.

http://www.spc.noaa....120629_rpts.gif

The fact that people didn't get the watch notification doesn't mean there was no warning...the warning was given..the issue lies in between that and the way it gets to someone.

The graphic I posted was from the morning outlook which was bad...but the watch and mcd were issued over an hour ahead of the impact time which you initially said didn't happen...so I was just posting it to show you that it did in fact exist and there was in fact plenty of warning.

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Areas not included in that watch had substantial effects....if u want to go tit for tat....and how many got the watch notification at 10pm? Alot less then i would say at 10am....even u posted a graphic about how poor lead time the spc had...no ill feelings....just discussion

What areas not included in the watch got affected? Not north, there wasn't any damage done north of my county, Atlantic or Camden County.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

955 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-

NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-031400-

LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-

LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-

NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-

SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-

MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-

FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-

NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-

SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-

WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-

WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-

RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

955 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL

WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST

NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK

FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL

DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

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