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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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That's a really impressive storm riding east through Central NJ. Can see constant lightning from here.

i see it too and now i hear thunder the northern edge of the precip is going to clip us - going to be interesting to see what happens to it when it approaches the coast - some of these have been fizzling out

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Isotherm land getting killed again. Great looking storm.

It was well worth the wait -- frequent lightning/thunder with plenty of CTG strikes, wind gust just shy of 40mph, torrential rains. Looked like a tropical storm for the first few minutes of it. Rainfall 1.18" in less than 15 minutes. Like I've said, can't complain here this summer. It's been very active.

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It was well worth the wait -- frequent lightning/thunder with plenty of CTG strikes, wind gust just shy of 40mph, torrential rains. Looked like a tropical storm for the first few minutes of it. Rainfall 1.18" in less than 15 minutes. Like I've said, can't complain here this summer. It's been very active.

A sign that el nino is taking shape? We could be in for a cooler/wet august.. just a thought

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A sign that el nino is taking shape? We could be in for a cooler/wet august.. just a thought

we were in la nina last august and that turned out to be the wettest month ever - hope that doesn't happen but so far this summer has been quite similar to last with a mainly dry hot above average july - even though the enso is different

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Guest Pamela

NOUS41 KOKX 290142

PNSOKX

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-291338-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

942 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 18

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN

SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE

ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

RAINFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

BROOKFIELD 2.12 645 PM 7/28 MESONET

BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 1.97 800 PM 7/28 ASOS

3 N DANBURY 1.89 711 PM 7/28 MESONET

DANBURY 1.83 600 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

DANBURY AIRPORT 1.44 800 PM 7/28 ASOS

1 E SHERMAN 1.31 815 PM 7/28 MESONET

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

2 NNE BRANFORD 1.82 900 PM 7/28 MESONET

1 ESE NORTH HAVEN 1.30 815 PM 7/28 MESONET

CLINTONVILLE 1.17 915 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...

GALES FERRY 2.62 730 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

3 SSE MONTVILLE 1.88 712 PM 7/28 MESONET

1 ENE WATERFORD 1.76 822 PM 7/28 MESONET

GROTON AIRPORT 1.63 800 PM 7/28 ASOS

MYSTIC 1.62 655 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

2 SW MYSTIC 1.38 705 PM 7/28 MESONET

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...

1 SSE WOOD-RIDGE 1.42 538 PM 7/28 MESONET

WESTWOOD 1.41 500 PM 7/28 MESONET

WOOD-RIDGE 1.32 702 PM 7/28 MESONET

HILLSDALE 1.28 515 PM 7/28 MESONET

1 W TENAFLY 1.24 711 PM 7/28 MESONET

TETERBORO 1.19 500 PM 7/28 ASOS

...ESSEX COUNTY...

CALDWELL AIRPORT 1.61 800 PM 7/28 ASOS

1 NW NUTLEY 1.32 911 PM 7/28 MESONET

...PASSAIC COUNTY...

RINGWOOD 1.56 310 PM 7/28 COOP OBSERVER

1 WNW WEST PATERSON 1.23 507 PM 7/28 MESONET

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...

HICKSVILLE 2.76 1022 AM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

LYNBROOK 1.59 630 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

OLD BETHPAGE 1.22 1000 AM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...

CORNWALL ON HUDSON 2.45 330 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

1 WNW GARDNERTOWN 1.69 546 PM 7/28 MESONET

1 W NEW WINDSOR 1.51 558 PM 7/28 MESONET

HAMPTONBURGH 1.16 125 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

1 SW HARRIMAN 1.13 914 PM 7/28 MESONET

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

UPTON 5.52 800 PM 7/28 NWS OFFICE

HOLTSVILLE 4.70 1030 AM 7/28 PUBLIC

MIDDLE ISLAND 4.52 130 PM 7/28 NWS EMPLOYEE

BAITING HOLLOW 4.06 805 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

SHIRLEY AIRPORT 3.10 800 PM 7/28 ASOS

ISLIP AIRPORT 2.98 800 PM 7/28 ASOS

MEDFORD 2.95 1238 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

CARMANS RIVER 2.91 726 PM 7/28 MESONET

ISLIP 2.37 630 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

2 N RIDGE 2.33 905 PM 7/28 MESONET

4 NW WESTHAMPTON 2.26 801 PM 7/28 MESONET

1 ESE DIX HILLS 1.84 904 PM 7/28 MESONET

1 N MASTIC BEACH 1.65 727 PM 7/28 MESONET

ORIENT 0.96 900 PM 7/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...

1 NNE PEEKSKILL 1.02 523 PM 7/28 MESONET

$$

ML

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SPC on next weekend.

ACUS48 KWNS 290846

SPC AC 290846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0346 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS

WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER COULD

CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN

CANADIAN PROVINCES LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT

MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS IN TURN COULD BE

ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM PORTIONS OF

THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND

NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL

ENSEMBLES IS QUITE LARGE AT THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME...AS IS USUALLY

THE CASE. COUPLED WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE SMALLER

IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE

ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO LARGE TO

CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER

EVENT.

..KERR.. 07/29/2012

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SPC on next weekend.

ACUS48 KWNS 290846

SPC AC 290846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0346 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS

WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER COULD

CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN

CANADIAN PROVINCES LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT

MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS IN TURN COULD BE

ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM PORTIONS OF

THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND

NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL

ENSEMBLES IS QUITE LARGE AT THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME...AS IS USUALLY

THE CASE. COUPLED WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE SMALLER

IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE

ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO LARGE TO

CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER

EVENT.

..KERR.. 07/29/2012

Let the games begin...

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Next week has plenty of potential but things are way too muddled on guidance right now to have any real idea of how its going to go down. That being said, with strong shortwaves in Central Canada sliding around a mean trough and moving into Southeast Canada...we could have a few potential severe weather events.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f162.gif

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