blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Has anyone checked the 18z models concerning the MCS potential for Wednesday - Thursday? I heard in the SNE thread that the setup is somewhat favorable for supercells in that region for those days. forget SNE i wanna know about our chances for our area lol.....earthlight where are? chime in haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 SmokeEater: Thanks for the updates. I remember you from last year giving out very useful information about shear velocities and what not during the Super Tornado outbreak last year in the South last year. I did not post but was lurking and reading those threads in the Central and Southern states where you posted. I'm glad you are posting in this region too. I have a feeling something big will happen in this region soon, maybe a derecho since we're overdue. No prob man, I was ground zero Friday night for the derecho down here in South Jersey. As epic as that storm was, it was possibly the best storm I've ever witnessed, even beating the EF-1 in Bel Air, MD I chased a few weeks ago. But I honestly don't know if I want that again. The damage down here is immense, I've been cutting trees and clearing roads with my FD for the last 24+ hours, and I'm just now getting time to relax. The crazy part about it was, it didn't just blow, and be done, it went for a good 20 minutes, of 70+ mph winds. Some of the people down here won't have power for days, I was lucky, and got it back after 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 VIL's of 127 kg/m2 over Robbins Rest right now, rare for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Anybody here on East Fire Island Right now? That line looks nasty (now that it has innocuously gone past me, of course). :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Painful to be under the "red" part (on radar) of a storm and getting nothing but rain & sunshine. I feel your pain. I`m sitting here watching storms die before reaching my area. I feel somewhat greedy complaining considering I was smack in the middle of the DC derecho on Friday night. Nonetheless, I wish it were possible for everyone to get in on the action. Is it true that we see derechos once every four years around here, on average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I have a feeling the STW will be dropped for NYC shortly. That cell out on the island is impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Block Island under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, I've never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 forget SNE i wanna know about our chances for our area lol.....earthlight where are? chime in haha The overall synoptic setup isn't bad, but I can't say I am overly excited for anything specific at this point. You have to carefully watch for any pertubations in the ridge axis. Granted, there is a distinct shortwave on some models Wednesday afternoon. But if you take a glance at the SPC SREF means, the wind fields and shear are lacking to say the least. Nothing along the lines of the kinematics which were on the periphery of extreme instability last week and helped fuel the large derecho. There might be a better chance for something organized later in the week as well. The SREF currently has a broad area of organized severe weather probabilities..so I guess we'll see how the models handle things as we move through the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Block Island under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, I've never seen that before. That's the first time I've ever seen that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2012 Author Share Posted July 1, 2012 Has anyone checked the 18z models concerning the MCS potential for Wednesday - Thursday? I heard in the SNE thread that the setup is somewhat favorable for supercells in that region for those days. 18Z GFS is showing showers and T-storms wednesday afternoon and evening just in time to mess up the festivities for some and possibly fireworks in some areas - severe indicies are favorable BUT MCS and its path is difficult to predict this far out - stay tuned http://raleighwx.ame...els/18zgfs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Block Island under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, I've never seen that before. Wow yeah! They're about to get raked!! http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.125&scale=0.326&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&lat=40.68881989&lon=-73.37693787&label=Lindenhurst,%20NY&showstorms=10&map.x=408.5&map.y=167.5¢erx=81¢ery=264&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Montauk Point may get clipped by that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Biggest severe day for long island in years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I have the hail on LIE and the crazy storm on video. Have to figure out how to edit out the vulgar language, lol, and I'll try and post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I have the hail on LIE and the crazy storm on video. Have to figure out how to edit out the vulgar language, lol, and I'll try and post it. Potty mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I have the hail on LIE and the crazy storm on video. Have to figure out how to edit out the vulgar language, lol, and I'll try and post it. I feel like the obscenities would add to it. Post that sh!t!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The HRRR did pretty well, with the t-storms on LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 So far this year, it's ironic, depressing and funny to see all the severe cells affect NE NJ and the Hudson Valley then weaken as it approaches Brooklyn, The Bronx and Manhattan. However, once the cells continue east towards Long Island and off the coast of Brooklyn and Queens, they immediately flare up again. Is this pure coincidence and bad luck on my part here in Brooklyn or is there a viable meteorological justification for this? Is it because of seabreeze outflow boundaries or higher convergence mixing ratios on Long Island and off the coast? But at the same time, SST anomalies off the immediate coast around all of the boroughs are at least 3 degrees celsius higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 18Z GFS is showing showers and T-storms wednesday afternoon and evening just in time to mess up the festivities for some and possibly fireworks in some areas - severe indicies are favorable BUT MCS and its path is difficult to predict this far out - stay tuned http://raleighwx.ame...els/18zgfs.html Thanks. Although Upton's discussion classifies the Wednesday event as a shortwave and a cold front passage which could give us severe storms. New England's discussions says that any MCS in the morning would hinder their chances of convection in the afternoon from the cold front. I'm confused as to whether we should be rooting for an MCS or the strong shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 storm developed just east of me, only got moderate rain for 10 minutes, 2 miles east, hail, winds etc...great because i still had half my stuff outside for bbq. the weather gods were looking out today. Lets hope for no rain Wednesday either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 anvil cloud or not? this is the storm that affected south eastern ny state around 230 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 anvil cloud or not? this is the storm that affected south eastern ny state around 230 What a beauty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 SPC is already mentioning next weekend as a possible time frame for severe weather... it's a reasonable possibility given the next likely heat surge along with an approaching cold front, although it's still subject to some changes given that it's a week away. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NERN STATES DAY 7-8 WHICH FORCES A COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AND GREAT LAKES. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 SPC's Day 3 outlook is marginally bullish for including a large 15% slight risk area for NYC metro and New England. When was the last time we were included in a slight risk for day 3? I remember it being about two years ago. I really hope that our area cashes in on some theta-e vorticity advection and WAA with the shortwave in order to compensate for the lack of surface-based buoyancy. We always seem to lack large-scale ascent during most of our severe episodes, in which I think ultimately screws us for a widespread organized event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 The event on Wednesday doesn't look like anything prolific as it stands currently. I think there could be a somewhat enhanced threat over parts of Southwestern New England, potentially over Western CT and MA where the models are indicating some favorable shear juxtaposed with the most impressive forcing. The trough and best forcing is a little far north for my liking, but I still think we could get some storms to develop to our north and west and drop south east towards our area. The models still have good instability and non-horrible lapse rates. We'll see how it evolves on the models over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 The event on Wednesday doesn't look like anything prolific as it stands currently. I think there could be a somewhat enhanced threat over parts of Southwestern New England, potentially over Western CT and MA where the models are indicating some favorable shear juxtaposed with the most impressive forcing. The trough and best forcing is a little far north for my liking, but I still think we could get some storms to develop to our north and west and drop south east towards our area. The models still have good instability and non-horrible lapse rates. We'll see how it evolves on the models over the next few days. hopefully it doesnt rain out the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 After what I experienced Friday night down in South Jersey I will never again wish severe weather anywhere. The destruction is widespread. You can't go more than a few hundred yards without seeing a tree into a house, a tree down across the road, power lines down and trees into cars. I was watching this evolve for hours, and I thought SPC did a good job of getting the watch up when they did (Around 10:30 PM I believe). I thought we would be in the clear of the main line, and we were, but I never expected the northern end to fire the way it did. Its all fun and games watching other people get hit from a far, and the fun that comes a long with forecasting, but for those of us that live through the storm and see the destruction it won't be soon forgotten. A true war zone. Perhaps one of the after affects that is being overlooked is that without power, nobody has AC in the middle of a heatwave. My grandmother who is 89 has now been without power for 3 days and they are estimating another 6-10 days before power is fully restored. So the next time everyone gets all excited about a big MCS coming through, ask yourself, what would I do if a tree hit my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'm sure most here would love to witness a major severe weather episode, some would like to see a 1938 hurricane again, but most would not want to be personally impacted with the aftermath. What is the price you have to pay to get what you want? How badly would you like to experience a major severe weather event, knowing the risks involved? I'm sure for the hundreds who were thrilled to experience severe weather prior to the derecho hitting them don't feel the same after it affected them. The same goes for those who've gone through flooding or a hurricane, but I guess the thrill is worth the risk for hardcore weather enthusiasts until the aftermath is no longer a reward that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I think it's just part of being a lover of extreme weather. Tornado chasers know that if they following an EF 3, 4, or 5 tornado and it hits a populated area that there is going to be devastation but that doesn't mean the thrill isnt there while experiencing the force of mother nature. I never thought with Irene that I'd lose power for 4 days and have a tree down in my yard. But by comparison that was nothing to those who've lost their houses, belongings and sometimes their lives. Now if another tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane was coming my way I'd definitely be more prepared. 99% of the thunderstorms we see won't produce damage anywhere near what this derecho just did but people who experienced it will certainly be more alert and prepared when the next round of severe weather comes through. I'm sure most here would love to witness a major severe weather episode, some would like to see a 1938 hurricane again, but most would not want to be personally impacted with the aftermath. What is the price you have to pay to get what you want? How badly would you like to experience a major severe weather event, knowing the risks involved? I'm sure for the hundreds who were thrilled to experience severe weather prior to the derecho hitting them don't feel the same after it affected them. The same goes for those who've gone through flooding or a hurricane, but I guess the thrill is worth the risk for hardcore weather enthusiasts until the aftermath is no longer a reward that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'm sure most here would love to witness a major severe weather episode, some would like to see a 1938 hurricane again, but most would not want to be personally impacted with the aftermath. What is the price you have to pay to get what you want? How badly would you like to experience a major severe weather event, knowing the risks involved? I'm sure for the hundreds who were thrilled to experience severe weather prior to the derecho hitting them don't feel the same after it affected them. The same goes for those who've gone through flooding or a hurricane, but I guess the thrill is worth the risk for hardcore weather enthusiasts until the aftermath is no longer a reward that is. This. The thing about Irene even is that people were given a chance to prepare for DAYS, there were evacautions, people hunkered down in their basements and were aware of the risks...but you cannot be prepared for a Derecho and take precautions to protect your family or property. People killed while sleeping on the top floor of their house would not have done so if there had been a hurricane, etc. IMO severe storms are the worst weather event. Especially in the summer with people boating, camping and at the beach. I hope that Jily 4th is not too bad as millions of people will likely be boating, camping and outside oblivious of the weather, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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