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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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The convection should start to fill in over Central Jersey and train very slowly NE.

The atmosphere is destabilizing there with mid to upper 80's and dews in the mid 70's.

A storm just moved over WRI.

Good post. Stationary boundary located near CNJ with excessive humidity down here. I'm 82/76 right now with mid/upper 80s to my SW and 70s immediately to my NE. Intense convection beginning to fire.

This is the type of day where any sunshine will quickly cause T-storms to initiate given the very buoyant atmosphere.

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Having trouble getting into sun here in western li if we can get some sun we might see some storms but don't think were going to see anything big with lack of any sun. Lets hope for some sun spc has from Western li down South in a slight risk

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waiting for the first flash flood warnings out of Mt Holly those storms in southern NJ are yielding some heavy rain and training is going on as the storms are moving at a snails pace - if you know anybody that is at great adventure or any of the sky rides give em a call and tell them to keep an eye on the sky looks like these might make it over to the ocean county beaches

http://www.wundergro...ls=1&rainsnow=0

also looks like the sun is out down in seaside

http://www.exit82.com/seacam/cam1.html

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000

NWUS51 KOKX 281423

LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD BRENTWOOD 40.78N 73.25W

07/28/2012 SUFFOLK NY AMATEUR RADIO

ALL LANES OF THE SAGTIKOS PARKWAY BETWEEN THE LONG

ISLAND EXPRESSWAY AND CROOKED HILL ROAD CLOSED BY NY

STATE POLICE DUE TO FLOODING.

WOW.

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Those storms in jersy if they make it across the Atlantic will hit the the same places on eastern li that got hit before looks like western li will escape with nothing today..and we have a slight risk today.... We need the Sun to break thru

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GET OFF THE BEACHES AND RIDES IN SOUTHERN MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN !

LETS SEE IF SEASIDE GETS HIT YOU CAN SEE THE STORM CLOUDS TO THE NORTH

http://www.exit82.com/seacam/cam1.html

217

WUUS51 KPHI 281643

SVRPHI

NJC025-029-281745-

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0132.120728T1643Z-120728T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1243 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOMS RIVER...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF TOMS

RIVER TO TOMS RIVER TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER TO 15

MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

HOWELL...BROOKVILLE AND BEACHWOOD AROUND 1250 PM EDT...

TOMS RIVER AND BRICK TOWNSHIP AROUND 1255 PM EDT...

BARNEGAT...POINT PLEASANT BEACH AND MANTOLOKING AROUND 105 PM

EDT...

MANASQUAN AROUND 110 PM EDT...

BELMAR AROUND 115 PM EDT...

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I've already heard more thunder than Thursday with the storms still 5 miles south of me right now. Getting surrounded -- cells moving ewd from Mercer and building nwd from Ocean. It'll be difficult for Monmouth to miss out today.

79/75 and muggy. Very dark to the south.

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000

NWUS51 KOKX 281423

LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD BRENTWOOD 40.78N 73.25W

07/28/2012 SUFFOLK NY AMATEUR RADIO

ALL LANES OF THE SAGTIKOS PARKWAY BETWEEN THE LONG

ISLAND EXPRESSWAY AND CROOKED HILL ROAD CLOSED BY NY

STATE POLICE DUE TO FLOODING.

Photo of the flooding from the traffic cam:

http://smithtown.patch.com/articles/traffic-cam-flooding-closes-southbound-sagtikos#photo-10800599

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272

WWUS61 KOKX 281741

WCNOKX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 535

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

141 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

CTC001-009-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-

085-087-119-290200-

/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.A.0535.120728T1741Z-120729T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

535 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING

AREAS

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT

FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY

BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON

PASSAIC UNION

IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

BRONX KINGS (BROOKLYN) NASSAU

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) ORANGE PUTNAM

QUEENS RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)

ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER

ANZ335-338-355-290200-

/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.A.0535.120728T1741Z-120729T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

535 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING

AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY

NEW YORK HARBOR

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM

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Precipitable water is up to 1.8 in Conn, and increases to 2 inches towards the coast. Any storms that develop are not going to move much, so flash flooding is the immediate threat with these storms.

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