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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Statement as of 8:41 AM EDT on July 28, 2012

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...

central Nassau County in southeast New York...

* until 1045 am EDT...

* at 840 am EDT heavy rain was falling at the rate of around 1 inch

per hour with around 1 inch already fallen. Minor flooding of poor

drainage and low lying areas is likely.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the

roadway. Most flooding deaths occur in automobiles. Turn around and

find another Route.

Be prepared to take action if the flooding threat increases... or a

warning is issued.

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Guest Pamela

Lots of thunder and lightning to my south. Storms seem to be drifting slowly north.

Thundershower in progress here....

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NWUS51 KOKX 281352

LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

951 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0930 AM FLASH FLOOD DEER PARK 40.76N 73.32W

07/28/2012 SUFFOLK NY AMATEUR RADIO

3 FEET OF WATER AT LONG ISLAND AVENUE AND COMMACK ROAD.

FIRE DEPARMENT RESCUING TRAPPED PERSONS IN VEHICLES.

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looks like the activity has a SW to NE movement today--sparing NYC and NJ and CT for now

Storms are just dumping rain just to my east all morning. wow. i think blizzard is still missing out though

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You should have said 70% of the area has a 70% chance of seeing activity within 25 miles of their house, but I commend you for sticking your neck out.

haha. easy bud. today is a new day!

BTW, HUGE bust last night in upton's forecast, anyone notice they called for "Heavy Rain" yesterday afternoon, like 60% chance, and storms last night...not a drop of rain fell for most of the area...storms never made it from CT and died out in E PA. Hoping that this whole week isnt wet as it looks it may be.

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Guest Pamela

000

NWUS51 KOKX 281423

LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD BRENTWOOD 40.78N 73.25W

07/28/2012 SUFFOLK NY AMATEUR RADIO

ALL LANES OF THE SAGTIKOS PARKWAY BETWEEN THE LONG

ISLAND EXPRESSWAY AND CROOKED HILL ROAD CLOSED BY NY

STATE POLICE DUE TO FLOODING.

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haha. easy bud. today is a new day!

BTW, HUGE bust last night in upton's forecast, anyone notice they called for "Heavy Rain" yesterday afternoon, like 60% chance, and storms last night...not a drop of rain fell for most of the area...storms never made it from CT and died out in E PA. Hoping that this whole week isnt wet as it looks it may be.

Too early to joke around maybe.

Anyway - I like the fact that we have the height fall center nearly overhead -- the lifting mechanism is close to the coast today unlike Friday when it was still miles NW of the region. If we can get any sunshine, that will add fuel to the fire. Won't take much to build convection as the LCL heights are quite low as forky mentioned.

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Convective inhibition generally > -50 which is substantially better than some of the values we saw on Friday. Another indicator that T-storms shouldn't have a problem firing this afternoon. Severity will be isolated but the primary threat is hvy rain.

4qra75.jpg

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Cell in southern jersey may be the start of development of a new cluster that grows and heads north...getting active early today.

My usually reliable RAP had a pretty bad fail last night...as no rains fell, but today it is not really enthused until about 7-10 pm where central CT gets rocked, nothing crazy for the rest of the area though. Does show that area of rain on the island moving out by early afternoon.

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Cell in southern jersey may be the start of development of a new cluster that grows and heads north...getting active early today.

My usually reliable RAP had a pretty bad fail last night...as no rains fell, but today it is not really enthused until about 7-10 pm where central CT gets rocked, nothing crazy for the rest of the area though. Does show that area of rain on the island moving out by early afternoon.

Today may be a better day for NYC for severe since we usually do well from quick SW-NE storms with marginal CAPE, lots of convergence and decent shear.

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