bluewave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Slow moving heavy rains developing across LI this morning north of the weak wave of low pressure and stalled out front to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Be on the lookout for some roadway flooding in paces like the Meadowbrook PKWY that picked up an estimated 1.3 inches the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 showers also developing near the front and low developing on it in south jersey - this should expand in coverage as the day wears on with some very heavy rain and thunder in already very moist atmosphere http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Statement as of 8:41 AM EDT on July 28, 2012 The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued an * Urban Flood Advisory for... central Nassau County in southeast New York... * until 1045 am EDT... * at 840 am EDT heavy rain was falling at the rate of around 1 inch per hour with around 1 inch already fallen. Minor flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas is likely. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. Most flooding deaths occur in automobiles. Turn around and find another Route. Be prepared to take action if the flooding threat increases... or a warning is issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Lots of thunder and lightning to my south. Storms seem to be drifting slowly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Going to be some high rain totals out on long island with that training going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 WOW LI getting nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Had over an inch of rain in 20 minutes here in eastern Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Lots of thunder and lightning to my south. Storms seem to be drifting slowly north. Thundershower in progress here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Bad time for TJFK TDWR to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 NMM destroys Long Island....4 inches + in spots: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 As does the ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 NWUS51 KOKX 281352 LSROKX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 951 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0930 AM FLASH FLOOD DEER PARK 40.76N 73.32W 07/28/2012 SUFFOLK NY AMATEUR RADIO 3 FEET OF WATER AT LONG ISLAND AVENUE AND COMMACK ROAD. FIRE DEPARMENT RESCUING TRAPPED PERSONS IN VEHICLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 most of the area will see activity today with low lcl's, enough cape, and moderate shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 looks like the activity has a SW to NE movement today--sparing NYC and NJ and CT for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 looks like the activity has a SW to NE movement today--sparing NYC and NJ and CT for now Storms are just dumping rain just to my east all morning. wow. i think blizzard is still missing out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 most of the area will see activity today with low lcl's, enough cape, and moderate shear You should have said 70% of the area has a 70% chance of seeing activity within 25 miles of their house, but I commend you for sticking your neck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE over much of NJ at 14z : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 where is it going to come from in NJ, hazy sun right now and radar looks clear...81 with heat index of 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 You should have said 70% of the area has a 70% chance of seeing activity within 25 miles of their house, but I commend you for sticking your neck out. haha. easy bud. today is a new day! BTW, HUGE bust last night in upton's forecast, anyone notice they called for "Heavy Rain" yesterday afternoon, like 60% chance, and storms last night...not a drop of rain fell for most of the area...storms never made it from CT and died out in E PA. Hoping that this whole week isnt wet as it looks it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE over much of NJ at 14z : Upton's disco mentions C-S NJ in a slight risk today due to the elevated cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 000 NWUS51 KOKX 281423 LSROKX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1000 AM FLASH FLOOD BRENTWOOD 40.78N 73.25W 07/28/2012 SUFFOLK NY AMATEUR RADIO ALL LANES OF THE SAGTIKOS PARKWAY BETWEEN THE LONG ISLAND EXPRESSWAY AND CROOKED HILL ROAD CLOSED BY NY STATE POLICE DUE TO FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 haha. easy bud. today is a new day! BTW, HUGE bust last night in upton's forecast, anyone notice they called for "Heavy Rain" yesterday afternoon, like 60% chance, and storms last night...not a drop of rain fell for most of the area...storms never made it from CT and died out in E PA. Hoping that this whole week isnt wet as it looks it may be. Too early to joke around maybe. Anyway - I like the fact that we have the height fall center nearly overhead -- the lifting mechanism is close to the coast today unlike Friday when it was still miles NW of the region. If we can get any sunshine, that will add fuel to the fire. Won't take much to build convection as the LCL heights are quite low as forky mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Whatever develops will bring down plenty of rain in short order. PW's over 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 1.81 in PW on the 12z sounding at OKX for the flooding this morning north of the weak low and stalled out front. Typical summer set up for flooding on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Convective inhibition generally > -50 which is substantially better than some of the values we saw on Friday. Another indicator that T-storms shouldn't have a problem firing this afternoon. Severity will be isolated but the primary threat is hvy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 EHI, supercell, and craven parameters seem to be going up over NYC in the last hour but are very low-end. Guess it has to do with 45+ kt. westerly shear aloft colliding with light easterly surface winds. Lapse rates and LI are still poor though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Cell in southern jersey may be the start of development of a new cluster that grows and heads north...getting active early today. My usually reliable RAP had a pretty bad fail last night...as no rains fell, but today it is not really enthused until about 7-10 pm where central CT gets rocked, nothing crazy for the rest of the area though. Does show that area of rain on the island moving out by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Cell in southern jersey may be the start of development of a new cluster that grows and heads north...getting active early today. My usually reliable RAP had a pretty bad fail last night...as no rains fell, but today it is not really enthused until about 7-10 pm where central CT gets rocked, nothing crazy for the rest of the area though. Does show that area of rain on the island moving out by early afternoon. Today may be a better day for NYC for severe since we usually do well from quick SW-NE storms with marginal CAPE, lots of convergence and decent shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The convection should start to fill in over Central Jersey and train very slowly ENE. The atmosphere is destabilizing there with mid to upper 80's and dews in the mid 70's. A storm just moved over WRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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