psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 No other model? Where are you getting this stuff? SREFS have nothing until afternoon, GFS has nothing until tommorow night, RAP has minimal precip in the area at the time...and sounds like the Euro and UKIE were mainly dry as well in the morning...what other model does show heavy rains in the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SREFS have nothing until afternoon, GFS has nothing until tommorow night, RAP has minimal precip in the area at the time...and sounds like the Euro and UKIE were mainly dry as well in the morning...what other model does show heavy rains in the morning? I assumed you meant the evening rush hour referring to the "main show" second graphic that was posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I assumed you meant the evening rush hour referring to the "main show" second graphic that was posted. Kind of a late rush hour, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Kind of a late rush hour, no? Yeah. I didn't get the "too bad" though. Do people enjoy warm frontal elevated MCSs moving through at rush hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 models are often too far north with mcs tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SPC has the entire region moderate risk hatched, just let it play out. Stop calling a bust, it's like trying to pinpoint where the heaviest band of snow will end up, impossible to predict until it's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I assumed you meant the evening rush hour referring to the "main show" second graphic that was posted. Nah, meant the graphic that had a storm cluster at 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 As HM pointed out in the SNE thread you can see the overnight MCS forming nicely now on the Green Bay radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 As HM pointed out in the SNE thread you can see the overnight MCS forming nicely now on the Green Bay radar. Lighting up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Latest Upton AFD : Today could be another active day but not as dramatic as yesterday : NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/ COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT MOVES LITTLE AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT COULD AID IN ANY CONVECTION...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (FORECAST MODEL CAPE VALUES) AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. I DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AIDED BY JET PLACEMENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AMPLE CAPE AS MENTIONED. AS FOR TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WHICH YIELDS MID 80S TO AROUND 90...PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN AND AROUND METRO NJ. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND OVERALL WARMER AIRMASS DOES SETTLE JUST SOUTH AS INDICATED BY H8 TEMPS/LAYER THICKNESS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...APPARENT TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. I DO NOT BELIEVE WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S WILL OCCUR IN NYC TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY (MID AND UPPER 90S OCCURRED YESTERDAY)...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 SPC now has Central NJ, NYC, Western LI, in a slight risk today. 2% Tor, 15% Wind, 5% hail. 2% Tor extends a little further north: ...ERN SEABOARD... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD MAINTAIN BACKGROUND ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. OVERTURNING YESTERDAY AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...EVEN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE VIGOR. EXPECT STORMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A LEADING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM DELMARVA TO NYC MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER IMPULSE NOW OVER WI/LAKE MI BEGINS TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE EAST. CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-40KT FROM NRN VA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGHER MAGNITUDES LIKELY NORTH AND OFFSET FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME COULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC/HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH NEAR ANY WEAK SURFACE LOWS COULD SUPPORT A WEAK BRIEF TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Euro keeps the storms north of us today. Mostly for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Euro keeps the storms north of us today. Mostly for CT. Yes the reliable Euro...this means we are all getting nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Yes the reliable Euro...this means we are all getting nailed. The euro had the strongest line of storms in PA yesterday (verified). It failed however for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:dUluU_O8rAEJ:www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snesbitt/ATMS597R/notes/cuparm.ppt+&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESglN6-u-ssx6-dvjuUAX0JC5AVmQ2qoeWCl5U3Gl53z8aaCLOGduYPncxjdHdNCXfczTI2s2UX7t8OSYIOFOiRw5pOSfve65y1PzAvX55DdNn0JtVPClvnd-cJ5Zbz34EZR3OEx&sig=AHIEtbQ9MunGrgvHaB50wjwTkm49qFHJMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 https://docs.google....0wjwTkm49qFHJMA Dont know how many times you are going to post about this. Models can be used for placement of fronts, ULLs and other factors, which determine position of the likely convection area. I trust the euro far and beyond over any model with regards to placement of fronts, vorts, etc., despite it being affected by feedback yesterday. Sometimes models suffer from convective feedback (clearly the euro did yesterday) but they are useful tools as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Rain totals yesterday (morning and night): NYC: .60" LGA: .42" JFK: .49" EWR: .49" TEB: .49" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 0z spc-wrf has some storms impacting our area this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Recorded 0.43" here last night. Hopefully more today, need some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 tornado jay and bxengine should have some boomers with their morning coffee and diaper changes tomorrow according to the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 tornado jay and bxengine should have some boomers with their morning coffee and diaper changes tomorrow according to the 4km NAM. What's the direction on those things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 What's the direction on those things? they die out the next frame, no joke. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 radars becoming active iin PA moving east http://www.intellica...cation=USDC0001 latest Upton AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 119 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/ JUST MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT MOVES LITTLE AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT COULD AID IN ANY CONVECTION...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A TRIGGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (FORECAST MODEL CAPE VALUES) AND TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. I DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AIDED BY JET PLACEMENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND AMPLE CAPE AS MENTIONED. AS FOR TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WHICH YIELDS MID 80S TO AROUND 90...PERHAPS LOWER 90S IN AND AROUND METRO NJ. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND OVERALL WARMER AIRMASS DOES SETTLE JUST SOUTH AS INDICATED BY H8 TEMPS/LAYER THICKNESS. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...APPARENT TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. I DO NOT BELIEVE WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 90S WILL OCCUR IN NYC TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY (MID AND UPPER 90S OCCURRED YESTERDAY)...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 The 12z euro likes tomorrow afternoon for a fairly widespread tstorm threat for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 KIAD 18Z Sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 12Z RGEM 48 hour total rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 RAP has some showers/thunderstorms moving into the area between 6 and 9...then clearing out. So far Eastern CT getting hit, notmuch else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Slight risk today. Seems warranted with good s/w trof moving in. I wouldn't be surprised if today out performs the 26th. Forcing is better. We'll see how it goes by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Slight risk today. Seems warranted with good s/w trof moving in. I wouldn't be surprised if today out performs the 26th. Forcing is better. We'll see how it goes by midday. Let us get out the scales of justice to analyze this threat: Pro's Slight 500 mb height falls throughout the day Warm, moist lower atmosphere Some directional and speed shear Con's Weak winds aloft High wet bulb zero height Poor 700 mb - 500 mb lapse rates Don't know if we can get to the 1.00" severe hail criteria, perhaps a wet microburst to meet severe criteria. RAP forecast sounding for KEWR at 21Z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Slight risk today. Seems warranted with good s/w trof moving in. I wouldn't be surprised if today out performs the 26th. Forcing is better. We'll see how it goes by midday. Given that you nailed the 9/16/2010 tornado/microburst event for our area 24 hours in advance with not even a slight risk that day, I give your insight a lot of credence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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