nycsnow Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 @DrGregForbes: There could be a morning derecho - widespread thunderstorm wind event - Thursday morning in NY, CT, MA, RI, north NJ, maybe by sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 @DrGregForbes: There could be a morning derecho - widespread thunderstorm wind event - Thursday morning in NY, CT, MA, RI, north NJ, maybe by sunrise Not quite sure where he is seeing that, latest SREFS have no precip in the area until 5:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just got on the train home. Someome should check the 18z NAM. I just saw Tip wet himself in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Impressive Whoa! This is excellent. Strong Updrafts and Low Level Cloud tops. Also, there's Cloud tops past 50K on this Sounding with a very Mature Thunderhead Signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Whoa! This is excellent. Strong Updrafts and Low Level Cloud tops. 3200 cape and -6 LI is nothing to sneeze at either WOW!!! that is an awesome sounding right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have quite a bit to watch out for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Whoa! This is excellent. Strong Updrafts and Low Level Cloud tops. Also, there's Cloud tops past 50K on this Sounding with a very Mature Thunderhead Signature. Strong updraft indeed. 80 m/s per text soundings at 30hr. Equilibrium levels are at 48,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The amount of 0-3km EHI at 27 hours is very impressive. All of NJ is covered with 3+. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 3200 cape and -6 LI is nothing to sneeze at either WOW!!! that is an awesome sounding right there We also have the favorable shear over the area this time. On 7/18 we had the instability but not as much of the shear; this time the shear is also supportive of severe weather. My main concern for tomorrow is whether the activity can get into NYC or stay a bit too far north, but tomorrow looks like it could be a solid severe weather day across the region. As I'm still learning about all of the parameters that come into play for severe wx events, do the low level lapse rates matter more than the mid level lapse rates or is there not much of a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 18Z NAM 72 hour precip - heaviest mainly north and west of NYC metro - would think most of the action if this is correct will be in northern areas of NYC metro http://raleighwx.ame...amp72_NE072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18Z NAM 72 hour precip - heaviest mainly north and west of NYC metro - would think most of the action if this is correct will be in northern areas of NYC metro http://raleighwx.ame...amp72_NE072.gif So close, could go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18Z NAM 72 hour precip - heaviest mainly north and west of NYC metro - would think most of the action if this is correct will be in northern areas of NYC metro http://raleighwx.ame...amp72_NE072.gif The heaviest precip has been modeled to mostly stay north/west all along. The question is how much can make it here, as the models can't determine exactly where the storms will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Im starting to think that anyone who has there hopes up on the island for severe weather Tom might be in for a big time let down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Bottom line is that parameters are more then supportive of storms tomorrow, they will develop and impact our area. The only real thing that remains to be seen is which area relatively speaking cashes in on the most widespread and severe weather. This is the case with any setup, models continue to shift the best axis around and we usually don't determine these specific details until things begin to unfold and develop. People need to not worry themselves over these details, just know that we are all primed for some action tomorrow, extent to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowKitty96 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hi - trying to understand what all the terms being used here mean and how do read the sounding. Can anyone recommend a good website I could go to read and learn? I'm not sure what CAPE and MCS etc. are and I want to learn. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hi - trying to understand what all the terms being used here mean and how do read the sounding. Can anyone recommend a good website I could go to read and learn? I'm not sure what CAPE and MCS etc. are and I want to learn. Thanks Here's a good place to start. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/parameters/ If you have any more specific questions there's always the Met 101 subforum here that could be helpful for any questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 All I know is alot of people who were all over the threat earlier have now baked away from the threat as the models continue to shift the main threat area North into the mid hudson valley!!! I live on the island and I for one im not expecting anything severe witch normally we don't get many anyway so it's nothing new... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hi - trying to understand what all the terms being used here mean and how do read the sounding. Can anyone recommend a good website I could go to read and learn? I'm not sure what CAPE and MCS etc. are and I want to learn. Thanks In simplistic terms, CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere and MCS is an organized sustained thunderstorm complex. You can just google them for better definitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 lol at the people pretty much calling bust already. ive been shafted the entire season thus far, but this threat has legs unlike other threats this summer. the whole northeast is primed for action tommorow and the derecho that is forecast will deliver where it hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 latest gfs not as impressive as nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 All I know is alot of people who were all over the threat earlier have now baked away from the threat as the models continue to shift the main threat area North into the mid hudson valley!!! I live on the island and I for one im not expecting anything severe witch normally we don't get many anyway so it's nothing new... Lol. Just because the best parameters are north of you does not mean that your environment is not supportive of severe storms. The whole region is under the gun, this is why the risk zone is so broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z 4km NAM Morning: Main Show: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 latest gfs not as impressive as nam What an understatement...the CAPE was cut by 2/3...Sounding looks very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Honestly, I wont be excited until I see an actual severe cell/line about to impact the metro area. Also, probably good to keep the "severe cancel" posts to a minimum until after the event is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 18z 4km NAM Morning: Main Show: Damn, looks like the area is getting slammed during rush hour...too bad no other model has this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What an understatement...the CAPE was cut by 2/3...Sounding looks very different. Same thing happened with the 12z suite. The gfs was less impressive then the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Here is the new thread specific for tomorrows event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Damn, looks like the area is getting slammed during rush hour...too bad no other model has this. No other model? Where are you getting this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Now I'm more hopeful given everyone saying bust already and models less than eager, we always get the best severe weather when we don't really expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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