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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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@DrGregForbes: There could be a morning derecho - widespread thunderstorm wind event - Thursday morning in NY, CT, MA, RI, north NJ, maybe by sunrise

Not quite sure where he is seeing that, latest SREFS have no precip in the area until 5:00

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Whoa! This is excellent. Strong Updrafts and Low Level Cloud tops. Also, there's Cloud tops past 50K on this Sounding with a very Mature Thunderhead Signature.

Strong updraft indeed. 80 m/s per text soundings at 30hr. Equilibrium levels are at 48,000 ft.

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3200 cape and -6 LI is nothing to sneeze at either WOW!!! that is an awesome sounding right there

We also have the favorable shear over the area this time. On 7/18 we had the instability but not as much of the shear; this time the shear is also supportive of severe weather. My main concern for tomorrow is whether the activity can get into NYC or stay a bit too far north, but tomorrow looks like it could be a solid severe weather day across the region.

As I'm still learning about all of the parameters that come into play for severe wx events, do the low level lapse rates matter more than the mid level lapse rates or is there not much of a difference?

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18Z NAM 72 hour precip - heaviest mainly north and west of NYC metro - would think most of the action if this is correct will be in northern areas of NYC metro

http://raleighwx.ame...amp72_NE072.gif

The heaviest precip has been modeled to mostly stay north/west all along. The question is how much can make it here, as the models can't determine exactly where the storms will end up.

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Bottom line is that parameters are more then supportive of storms tomorrow, they will develop and impact our area. The only real thing that remains to be seen is which area relatively speaking cashes in on the most widespread and severe weather. This is the case with any setup, models continue to shift the best axis around and we usually don't determine these specific details until things begin to unfold and develop. People need to not worry themselves over these details, just know that we are all primed for some action tomorrow, extent to be determined.

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Hi - trying to understand what all the terms being used here mean and how do read the sounding. Can anyone recommend a good website I could go to read and learn?

I'm not sure what CAPE and MCS etc. are and I want to learn.

Thanks

Here's a good place to start. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/parameters/

If you have any more specific questions there's always the Met 101 subforum here that could be helpful for any questions.

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All I know is alot of people who were all over the threat earlier have now baked away from the threat as the models continue to shift the main threat area North into the mid hudson valley!!! I live on the island and I for one im not expecting anything severe witch normally we don't get many anyway so it's nothing new...

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Hi - trying to understand what all the terms being used here mean and how do read the sounding. Can anyone recommend a good website I could go to read and learn?

I'm not sure what CAPE and MCS etc. are and I want to learn.

Thanks

In simplistic terms, CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere and MCS is an organized sustained thunderstorm complex. You can just google them for better definitions.

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All I know is alot of people who were all over the threat earlier have now baked away from the threat as the models continue to shift the main threat area North into the mid hudson valley!!! I live on the island and I for one im not expecting anything severe witch normally we don't get many anyway so it's nothing new...

Lol. Just because the best parameters are north of you does not mean that your environment is not supportive of severe storms. The whole region is under the gun, this is why the risk zone is so broad.

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