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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP

ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS

CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT

CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW

ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE

CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON.

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When was the last time, there was Day 2 mod risk for any part of our area? I see they also talking about tornadoes now.

This is probably our first ever, IIRC.

I've been at this for 11 years now.

Almost missed the best part!

...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU

AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...

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Could we be looking at a potential High Risk day tomorrow, tomorrow's severe set up from E OH to New England is really impressive, threat of widespread damaging winds, some very large hail, and a fairly widespread tornado threat (with an enhanced area near surface low)

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Sorry im located in western Nassau county on the island more specific Im located by mineola just South of the northern state pkwy so im not the South shore witch is good I guess but im still on the island witch is bad Im gathering by other post

i think we live on the same block...where do you live? Roslyn Heights? Williston Park? I am in Albertson...and to answer your question, we are just far enough north that we arent affected as bad as the south shore, either in summer or winter. Once you hit Hempstead and south the storms weaken and in the winter it is slightly warmer.

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euro has morning mcs way north towards vt and the 00Z threat goes into NW CT and southern MA. Shows very little for our area, fwiw.

I think everyone has given up on morning convection at this point, Upton is calling for dry conditions until Thursday midday, even the AFD says at most light rain.

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