LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yes please. That hodograph is awesome. This is for Newark at 00Z of the 2012072500 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 For Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interesting to see if the models shift south with the threat as has been the trend on other organized events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Interesting to see if the models shift south with the threat as has been the trend on other organized events this year. This. every threat this year that has been organized has shifted south. we'll see what this one does as its not gonna take much for the entire tri-state area to be in the bullseye with this severe weather outbreak potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SPC mentions a possible upgrade to MDT for areas just to our north and west. I still can't get excited about this one. There exists too many concerns at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Unless the models all change, it looks like the concentrated area of storms will be well north of our area tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nice disco by Upton: THE MAIN CONCERN ON THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE 1500-3000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH 500-1500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 (DO NOT BUY INTO GFS HAVING HIGHER VALUES THAT FAR EAST DUE TO THE OVERLY PROGRESSIVE/STRONG NATURE OF ITS SOLUTION). MITIGATING THE LOWER CAPE OVER EASTERN 1/3 IS THAT THE CORE OF A 40-50 KT 950 HPA JET IS FORECAST INTO THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85+ KT UPPER JET...BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6KM OF SHEAR. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-45 SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER WITH HELICITY VALUES FORECAST GENERALLY ABOVE 200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OF 2 TO 3...AND 0-3KM VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER VALUES OF 0.25 TO 0.5 THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR NOW IS THAT THE LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 1000 TO JUST UNDER 1500 METERS - WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THAT FOUND TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM SW CT- NYC ON NORTHWEST...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO - WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SPC HAVING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC excerpt: " GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I hope we don't end up with a tornado watch, they seem to be the kiss of death for severe chances in this area the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I hope we don't end up with a tornado watch, they seem to be the kiss of death for severe chances in this area the last few years. We all shouldnt be throwing in the towel with this yet as all organized severe weather has had a tendency this year to be south of what was progged to be its original forecasted location. Todays model runs will shed much more light on what our area should expect as far as widespread severe weather. I agree that the threat for possible tornadic activity will most likely be north of us but i cant honestly see us escaping the action tommorow with this setup. Im willing to bet after 2-3 pm tommorow our entite area is gonna start lighting up like a christmas tree. Yes yanksfan27 the tornado watch has really been our kiss of death lately though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I hope we don't end up with a tornado watch, they seem to be the kiss of death for severe chances in this area the last few years. 6/6/10 The only ever time that I have laughed at a severe weather bust. It was just so horrific. Tornado watches covered pretty much the entire NE. 9z SREF is slowly crawling in. Hopefully its better than the 3z which had the best parameters far to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Did they issue a tornado watch the day the tornado touched down in the parts of the city a few years back? I believe they did, but the storms were already approaching by that time if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 12z NAM continues the idea of the bulk of the activity staying well north of the area an into southern and northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 12z NAM continues the idea of the bulk of the activity staying well north of the area an into southern and northern New England. The srefs as well. Main concentration of storms are well north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The srefs as well. Main concentration of storms are well north of our area. Define well north? HM in the NE thread seems to think that NNJ, SE NY and much of CT are in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Define well north? HM in the NE thread seems to think that NNJ, SE NY and much of CT are in the game.... Of course we are still in the game. These things can change drastically. The NAM still brings an area of storms near NYC tomorrow night after 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The srefs as well. Main concentration of storms are well north of our area. The SREF actually increased severe probs in our area pretty dramatically this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 12z NAM continues the idea of the bulk of the activity staying well north of the area an into southern and northern New England. What? This run brings the MCS into NYC at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The SREF actually increased severe probs in our area pretty dramatically this run. Seems like there are 2 triggers. The 1st one is for well north of the area but then the MCS rolls through here tomorrow evening and brings NYC and north into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A ton of awful information in this thread, our area still looks primed for possible severe tomorrow afternoon and evening. I still believe the MCS will be very close to our area tomorrow morning but the main threat with that is heavy rain with maybe some stronger cells on the southern tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Soundings are still very intense around 00Z tomorrow but the CAPE has come down a ton from last nights run. We are dealing with a complex of storms rolling through here after dark, and we don't know what debris we are going to deal with from the morning MCS. Very complicated setup, especially at H5 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nice conflicting posts in here. Just wait until the 17:30 SPC update before you draw conclusions. Not sure what that post about the SREF being too far north was about, but SC probs have increased quite a bit in just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 2500+ cape is still quite alot for KNYC. The potential is still very much alive for an MCS sunset/after dark to wack NYC and points east and west. And as earthlight stated severe probabilities have gone up noticeably on the latest SREF run so we just gotta let todays models take there course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 2500+ cape is still quite alot for KNYC. The potential is still very much alive for an MCS sunset/after dark to wack NYC and points east and west. And as earthlight stated severe probabilities have gone up noticeably on the latest SREF run so we just gotta let todays models take there course Didnt say it wasn't, just making an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nice conflicting posts in here. Just wait until the 17:30 SPC update before you draw conclusions. The confusion was we are talking about 2 separate MCS type events coming through tomorrow. One in the morning and the main player in the evening. The morning one is well north of the area and into SNE. The evening one, around 0z, has the MCS very close to NYC on the srefs and the NAM. Sorry about the confusion. Should have clarified that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nice conflicting posts in here. Just wait until the 17:30 SPC update before you draw conclusions. This. Like i said earlier wayyyy to early to start drawing conclusions. We got all of todays model data to go through including our short range models since were just about in there range. No white flag from me yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Didnt say it wasn't, just making an observation. trials i was just stating the cape and understood what you were saying. Wasng badgering you or anything so please dont take it that way. You def have a much better chance of seeing severe storms tommorow in your area so you gotta be excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Seems like there are 2 triggers. The 1st one is for well north of the area but then the MCS rolls through here tomorrow evening and brings NYC and north into the game. The first is the warm front which is expected to trigger widespread elevated convection associated with the WAA north of our area. It is uncertain where the warm front will come to lie but as HM noted, the MCS north of us will actually help our area by increasing the frontogenesis along the warm front (warm on the south side, cool and cooling off due to rain on the north). Plus any rain that occurs before the warm front moves through will help moisten the layer and lower LCL heights for later in the day. The cold front then will help trigger additional convection with that second batch that the NAM is showing riding the baroclinic zone along the front. With the low-level shear locally enhanced there, that would be where to watch for the greatest threat of anything tornadic. As of now the front looks to be just north of our area straddling the NJ/NY border and into NE PA, but that is still fairly close to us especially at this stage. I just wouldn't worry about it being "too far north" just because of the first batch that the NAM is showing. (And this goes without saying, but this is assuming the NAM is even correct about its warm front placement which is a whole other issue...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 12z NAM 0-1km EHI numbers tomorrow night at 3z, support a significant tornado threat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The first is the warm front which is expected to trigger widespread elevated convection associated with the WAA north of our area. It is uncertain where the warm front will come to lie but as HM noted, the MCS north of us will actually help our area by increasing the frontogenesis along the warm front (warm on the south side, cool and cooling off due to rain on the north). Plus any rain that occurs before the warm front moves through will help moisten the layer and lower LCL heights for later in the day. The cold front then will help trigger additional convection with that second batch that the NAM is showing riding the baroclinic zone along the front. With the low-level shear locally enhanced there, that would be where to watch for the greatest threat of anything tornadic. As of now the front looks to be just north of our area straddling the NJ/NY border and into NE PA, but that is still fairly close to us especially at this stage. I just wouldn't worry about it being "too far north" just because of the first batch that the NAM is showing. (And this goes without saying, but this is assuming the NAM is even correct about its warm front placement which is a whole other issue...) Thanks for the explanation. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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