Mr Torchey Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Some nice towers to the north, out flow boundary has cleared the coast east of bdr, lagging to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 OFB just passed winds gusted 10-20 out of the northeast temp down to 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 nice, storm is coming right over the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 nice gust front here--nothing else-storms dying out quickly as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Good winds and heavy rain. No thunder or lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Can see the outflow from the storms over Norwalk really well on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Eastern LI under a severe tstorm warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The 18z NAM is farther north with the widespread/significant severe weather on Thursday..with a significant event over N PA/NY State and Western New England. Instability values still very good, 3-4K CAPE values but best bulk shear is further north on this run. Verbatim the juxtaposition of optimal thermodynamic and kinematic parameters would be immediately N of the metro area. Plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Just started pouring out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 RGEM three hour rain, mslp at 00Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 RGEM helicity valid at 00Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 RGEM lifted index valid at 00Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 RGEM CAPE valid at 00Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The SPC SREF 3hr probability of derecho parameter >3 has been increasing each run...over parts of Northern PA and traversing eastward to New Jersey and Southeast NY by 21z Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The SPC SREF 3hr probability of derecho parameter >3 has been increasing each run...over parts of Northern PA and traversing eastward to New Jersey and Southeast NY by 21z Thu. this is good news earthlight. this to me is really the first legitiment threat of widespread severe weather outbreak for our area this summer. the ingredients are there we just gotta get them to come together at the right time. we havent seen a derecho around here since like what? 1998? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 RGEM dew point, mslp valid at 00Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Would be better if those were condensed into one post with links. Nobody likes Canadian spam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 this is good news earthlight. this to me is really the first legitiment threat of widespread severe weather outbreak for our area this summer. the ingredients are there we just gotta get them to come together at the right time. we havent seen a derecho around here since like what? 1998? Labor Day 1998 Derechio - here is the NOAA link - Not Too sure if I want to experience that again - once is enough - 100 mile per hour winds - caused $ 3000 damage to my house ................... http://www.spc.noaa....ep71998page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Quite intrigued on the potential not only for severe weather on Thursday but the potential for a widespread and fairly significant severe weather outbreak extending from NE PA into SE NY/northern NJ and into western parts of SNE. I REALLY like the corridor from NE PA into NJ/SE NY...seems like there is solid consensus this area will at least see moderate instability under the presence of an EML plume with tremendous shear; both speed and directional. Of course there are issues that have to be worked out but if everything aligns I could see a very intense bowling line ahead of the cold front with discrete/possible tornadic supercells ahead of that and the pre-frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Quite intrigued on the potential not only for severe weather on Thursday but the potential for a widespread and fairly significant severe weather outbreak extending from NE PA into SE NY/northern NJ and into western parts of SNE. I REALLY like the corridor from NE PA into NJ/SE NY...seems like there is solid consensus this area will at least see moderate instability under the presence of an EML plume with tremendous shear; both speed and directional. Of course there are issues that have to be worked out but if everything aligns I could see a very intense bowling line ahead of the cold front with discrete/possible tornadic supercells ahead of that and the pre-frontal trough. You should go chasing down here on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 You should go chasing down here tomorrow. *Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 *Thursday I just fixed it. LOL, I keep thinking that today is Wednesday LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Those expecting a Labor day 1998 repeat will be very disappointed. The synoptic set up for that particular event was much more impressive. Huge area of height falls associated w/ a potent shortwave. Additionally, the clash of airmasses was more intense with 10c air at 850mb pushing swd up against 20c air in the mid atlantic. Heights fell from around 585dm to sub 576dm within the 18-24 hr period on Labor Day. Later this week we'll see heights fall but nowhere near 1998. Note the tightly packed height lines across the Northeast/Lakes and southern Canada. The synoptic of this event is world's better than the one later in the week http://www.meteo.psu...1998/us0907.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Those expecting a Labor day 1998 repeat will be very disappointed. The synoptic set up for that particular event was much more impressive. Huge area of height falls associated w/ a potent shortwave. Additionally, the clash of airmasses was more intense with 10c air at 850mb pushing swd up against 20c air in the mid atlantic. Heights fell from around 585dm to sub 576dm within the 18-24 hr period on Labor Day. Later this week we'll see heights fall but nowhere near 1998. Note the tightly packed height lines across the Northeast/Lakes and southern Canada. The synoptic of this event is world's better than the one later in the week http://www.meteo.psu...1998/us0907.php Multicellular clusters, bow echos with focused damaging wind gusts seem reasonable at this junction. Best supercell risk north of the area. Derechos are 200+ miles in length and conditions need to be darn near perfect for their development here. It's a very impressive set up, but to me, derechos are akin to 25"+ snowstorms. Extremely rare. Actually they're more akin to 1996 or 1888 snowstorms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have to work until the latest 4:30 and earliest 3:30 and the only other person I could go chasing with works until 4...we wouldn't have time to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, essentially this is the kind of sounding you see in Oklahoma. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have to work until the latest 4:30 and earliest 3:30 and the only other person I could go chasing with works until 4...we wouldn't have time to get there. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 To be honest despite the prolific soundings the NAM leaves me wanting more, especially in regards to the 500mb pattern and height falls. Despite the very impressive shear and surface low placement as well as the SPC SREF returning big numbers in reponse to the 0-3km helicity and 0-6km bulk shear juxtaposed with high instability....the high-resolution models have been insisting on storms staying both to the north and west of our area. The delayed height falls could be to blame as you glance at the H5 height field. The earlier runs of the NAM, that had the MCS farther south in the morning, had a better mid level height orientation and the shortwave/vorticity was farther south, aiding in forcing and development of convection in a very unstable atmosphere. The timing is also a big concern, even the SREF has the best/highest probability (3 and 12 hr) for storms between 21 and 03z. Both of these could serve as major caveats to a widespread severe weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The 0z NAM is delays the cold front passage until midday Friday. It has enough CAPE and shear for another severe threat on Friday:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, I'm not sure what's gonna push the storms SE towards us in that mid level flow regime. The height falls are lacking and the flow is westerly instead of north of west. However supercells often turn right of the mean wind so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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