earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The trend faster/north and east with the best low level shear is definitely making the supercell talk less emphatic. It'll be interesting to see if the south trend which we have seen in every convective event rears its head again...not really sure what's causing it but I've noticed it for sure. The warm front and surface low being a bit farther south could really bring better shear into the area and could allow, if not only a greater supercell potential, a better threat for an organized squall line. If the pieces of the puzzle come together this could be our first threat for a severe squall line racing through the area in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Well a lot of it depends on where the surface low tracks, and thus where the warm front stalls. It would be ideal to have the warm front pass us in the early morning hours and stall somewhere in S NY and S CT. The GFS is much further north with the surface low than the NAM is. With the Greenland blocking in place, it might make sense for the low to take a further south track, like what the NAM has. This would allow supercells to form in S NY and hopefully make the right hand turn and head for us. Or, the convection could all congeal into a squall line later in the day and hit us. If the GFS is right we can still manage widespread convection, but the shear won't be nearly as impressive and our LCL heights would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The trend faster/north and east with the best low level shear is definitely making the supercell talk less emphatic. It'll be interesting to see if the south trend which we have seen in every convective event rears its head again...not really sure what's causing it but I've noticed it for sure. The warm front and surface low being a bit farther south could really bring better shear into the area and could allow, if not only a greater supercell potential, a better threat for an organized squall line. If the pieces of the puzzle come together this could be our first threat for a severe squall line racing through the area in a few years. It's going to be hard to have the warm front essentially right over us or JUST to our north, which would in theory bring the best threat for tornadoes. The best shear is almost always north of the warm front but obviously the instability is not good there. I think it's a given that the best shear will be to our north, but it's still certainly possible to overlap sufficient shear, sufficient moisture, and sufficient CAPE over our area if the warm front doesn't go too far north. Often times it's also good to have early morning convection provided you get instability later in the day...that helps to keep a local tongue of moisture in place and lower our LCL heights. This is why I want a very early morning warm front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 FWIW, and from what I can tell, looks like the 12Z EC shifted slightly south with the track of the surface low. Has the low centered nearly right over the area at 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Although the helicity and best low level shear escapes north and east near the surface low and surface warm front, the SPC SREF mean is still blowing up big 3-hr severe weather probabilities between 18 and 21z on Thursday. 40+kts of effective shear over the area would be more than suffice to maintain severe convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Line of storms working north to south across CT, looks like one is heading right towards Brian56754838342 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Line of storms working north to south across CT, looks like one is heading right towards Brian56754838342 just in time to ruin my v-ball game down at Calf Pasture.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 just in time to ruin my v-ball game down at Calf Pasture.... well, you should have listened to SPC with the slight risk and made alternative plans. Cells look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 well, you should have listened to SPC with the slight risk and made alternative plans. Cells look good. oh ok, I'll call the league director next time and tell him that SPC says no game. cells look to actually miss Norwalk--might get one here if it doesnt fall apart as usual. (although with a west wind, we might be in luck for a change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I can see a nice cumulus cloud to my northeast from my office window in Ramsey. Hard to tell how far away it is, but it looks far. Storms crossing into CT look strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 cells severe warned now. That's going right into Brian567821's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Nice hail signature showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 You can see nicely, here, that the 12z NAM had enough clearing behind the morning MCS to develop a strong line of convection behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Nice hail signature showing up its going to die before it hits Brian492354u234895u3489 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 its going to die before it hits Brian492354u234895u3489 most likely, but the western piece looks good right now...racing southeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 most likely, but the western piece looks good right now...racing southeast.... I can see the anvil on that from here in Nassau. Nice outflow boundary showing up just to the south of the cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 most likely, but the western piece looks good right now...racing southeast.... They may even miss you to the east, the one in fairfield may swing east and give you some light showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 that thing looks plenty healthy, if it doesnt choke itself off, to the coast it will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 that thing looks plenty healthy, if it doesnt choke itself off, to the coast it will get. I think it will die at brian and then intensify into an EF4 over blizzard and he can never make a whiny post again...while he is huddle in his FEMA tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 might just miss me to the east--need it to wobble a bit more south warnings all dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 might just miss me to the east--need it to wobble a bit more south as i said, your storm is currently ripping through northern fairfield...slight bust by Upton calling for mostly sunny skies, some of these storms in NJ and upstate may wander into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 as i said, your storm is currently ripping through northern fairfield...slight bust by Upton calling for mostly sunny skies, some of these storms in NJ and upstate may wander into the area even that might miss. I am just NW of Bridgeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 even that might miss. I am just NW of Bridgeport. good luck bra, let us know how the rain showers feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looks like it lurched east-may not even see a rain shower. Maybe the gust front will deliver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Looks like it lurched east-may not even see a rain shower. Maybe the gust front will deliver? Gust front should be on your doorstep...nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The 18z NAM is farther north with the widespread/significant severe weather on Thursday..with a significant event over N PA/NY State and Western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 some nice new cells popping towards Newburgh....others stradding the Fairfield Cty New Haven Cty line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The 18z NAM is farther north with the widespread/significant severe weather on Thursday..with a significant event over N PA/NY State and Western New England. Ryan said 26C temps over NYC Too? Wow. got a map of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Ryan said 26C temps over NYC Too? Wow. got a map of that? No gust front yet? I think those are actually cooler than the storms itself sometimes...hoping they make it to the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 downed trees on the taconic, it is shut down where there storms rolled through. New storms also firing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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