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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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The trend faster/north and east with the best low level shear is definitely making the supercell talk less emphatic. It'll be interesting to see if the south trend which we have seen in every convective event rears its head again...not really sure what's causing it but I've noticed it for sure. The warm front and surface low being a bit farther south could really bring better shear into the area and could allow, if not only a greater supercell potential, a better threat for an organized squall line.

If the pieces of the puzzle come together this could be our first threat for a severe squall line racing through the area in a few years.

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Well a lot of it depends on where the surface low tracks, and thus where the warm front stalls. It would be ideal to have the warm front pass us in the early morning hours and stall somewhere in S NY and S CT.

The GFS is much further north with the surface low than the NAM is. With the Greenland blocking in place, it might make sense for the low to take a further south track, like what the NAM has. This would allow supercells to form in S NY and hopefully make the right hand turn and head for us. Or, the convection could all congeal into a squall line later in the day and hit us.

If the GFS is right we can still manage widespread convection, but the shear won't be nearly as impressive and our LCL heights would be higher.

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The trend faster/north and east with the best low level shear is definitely making the supercell talk less emphatic. It'll be interesting to see if the south trend which we have seen in every convective event rears its head again...not really sure what's causing it but I've noticed it for sure. The warm front and surface low being a bit farther south could really bring better shear into the area and could allow, if not only a greater supercell potential, a better threat for an organized squall line.

If the pieces of the puzzle come together this could be our first threat for a severe squall line racing through the area in a few years.

It's going to be hard to have the warm front essentially right over us or JUST to our north, which would in theory bring the best threat for tornadoes.

The best shear is almost always north of the warm front but obviously the instability is not good there. I think it's a given that the best shear will be to our north, but it's still certainly possible to overlap sufficient shear, sufficient moisture, and sufficient CAPE over our area if the warm front doesn't go too far north.

Often times it's also good to have early morning convection provided you get instability later in the day...that helps to keep a local tongue of moisture in place and lower our LCL heights. This is why I want a very early morning warm front passage.

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Although the helicity and best low level shear escapes north and east near the surface low and surface warm front, the SPC SREF mean is still blowing up big 3-hr severe weather probabilities between 18 and 21z on Thursday. 40+kts of effective shear over the area would be more than suffice to maintain severe convection.

SREF_ESHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f057.gif

SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f060.gif

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well, you should have listened to SPC with the slight risk and made alternative plans.

Cells look good.

oh ok, I'll call the league director next time and tell him that SPC says no game.

cells look to actually miss Norwalk--might get one here if it doesnt fall apart as usual. (although with a west wind, we might be in luck for a change)

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that thing looks plenty healthy, if it doesnt choke itself off, to the coast it will get.

I think it will die at brian and then intensify into an EF4 over blizzard and he can never make a whiny post again...while he is huddle in his FEMA tent.

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might just miss me to the east--need it to wobble a bit more south

as i said, your storm is currently ripping through northern fairfield...slight bust by Upton calling for mostly sunny skies, some of these storms in NJ and upstate may wander into the area

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