jdt Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 latest vil shows strongest updraft currently on west end of activity. Rotation currently not evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like the NYC metro will miss out on the storms today the ones in the mid Hudson valley seem to be weakening as they move se hopefully something changes later but doesn't look good as of now!!!! Great post, being there's a severe warned cell heading right for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Great post, being there's a severe warned cell heading right for NYC. there is? looks like its all falling apart now with loss of heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Storm looks like it'll hold all the way to NYC. Looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 front piece is falling apart fast--2nd piece out in Sussex County has a chance... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 owned. Nice, being this was reported about 40 mins ago, and it was just warned for golf balls and winds to 60. But by all means, keep up the great quality of posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 there is? looks like its all falling apart now with loss of heating Vil still a very impressive 80 in main updraft. That is a very healthy number. Storm over past hour has redeveloped on west end thus causing trajectory a bit further south then previously. The dying older updrafts have given it a more sloppy presentation on base reflectivity. Recent report out of Pike county PA of multiple trees and wires down. Still pretty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Great post, being there's a severe warned cell heading right for NYC. That storm is highly unlikely make it to NYC as a severe storm or even a strong one, you can see on radar that the anvil is blowing due east/southeast and it's raining over Northeast NJ and towards NYC. The storm should turn more south/southeast with some redevelopment on the southwest side towards the axis of greater ml/mucape that remains at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I'm pretty surprised to be seeing lightning from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 That storm is highly unlikely make it to NYC as a severe storm or even a strong one, you can see on radar that the anvil is blowing due east/southeast and it's raining over Northeast NJ and towards NYC. The storm should turn more south/southeast with some redevelopment on the southwest side towards the axis of greater ml/mucape that remains at this hour. And that's exactly what is happening...excellent post John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Officially now just a disorganized area of rain / heavy rain with an occasional good boomers mixed in. A perfect late July evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I'm pretty surprised to be seeing lightning from this. I'm seeing lightning here as well. Should be at least some heavy rain and lightning in NYC the next hour but nothing severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The end of the week also offers some potential for organized significant severe weather..but things are currently very muddled and somewhat disorganized on the models. It will be interesting to see if things come into better focus over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I can see the tops going up to my south/southwest with that new development just now appearing on TEWR radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The end of the week also offers some potential for organized significant severe weather..but things are currently very muddled and somewhat disorganized on the models. It will be interesting to see if things come into better focus over the next few days. It will be interesting to see how things play out as we get closer. The developing block over Greenland should force the surface low to track close enough to us for good shear and helicity values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Despite the weak reflectivity on radar, there have been some CTG strikes over the last ten minutes here at the Port in Elizabeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Despite the weak reflectivity on radar, there have been some CTG strikes over the last ten minutes here at the Port in Elizabeth. the lightining is great, just like last wed. But we have a whopping 0.01" in the rain gauge to this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 It will be interesting to see how things play out as we get closer. The developing block over Greenland should force the surface low to track close enough to us for good shear and helicity values. Hmmm.... low pressure very near in July? Tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Friday could be a very active day IMO across the Northeast, particularly New England. Whenever you see a closed sfc low, probably sub 1008mb, potentially down as low as 1000mb, you've got to watch out. Closed low up through 850 and 700mb with plenty of WAA, higher dew point advection northeastward into the area. Should be plenty of wind shear associated w/ this system, as well as surface instability via 90 degree temps and 65-70F tds. As we often see around here, the high CAPE/low shear enviros tend to produce scattered intense convection, but mod CAPE/high shear usually more efficient in producing widespread, organized, convection beyond the typical pulsers like we saw today. Helicity values may be elevated closer to the sfc low; I'd think the tornado risk would be increased for portions of NY State, nern PA, into interior New England most likely. The track of the low is obviously important, but there should be enough thermodynamic and kinematic support at our latitude for fairly organized severe. I don't like saying much this far in advance, but the stronger sfc low sends out a red flag for me. These synoptic set-ups usually don't disappoint for the majority. If I remember correctly, our most active convective day so far this summer involved a closed low. I like to watch out for upper lows, sub 1006-08mb sfc lows, and MCS differential advection as our best T-storm producers during the JJA period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Friday could be a very active day IMO across the Northeast, particularly New England. Whenever you see a closed sfc low, probably sub 1008mb, potentially down as low as 1000mb, you've got to watch out. Closed low up through 850 and 700mb with plenty of WAA, higher dew point advection northeastward into the area. Should be plenty of wind shear associated w/ this system, as well as surface instability via 90 degree temps and 65-70F tds. As we often see around here, the high CAPE/low shear enviros tend to produce scattered intense convection, but mod CAPE/high shear usually more efficient in producing widespread, organized, convection beyond the typical pulsers like we saw today. Helicity values may be elevated closer to the sfc low; I'd think the tornado risk would be increased for portions of NY State, nern PA, into interior New England most likely. The track of the low is obviously important, but there should be enough thermodynamic and kinematic support at our latitude for fairly organized severe. I don't like saying much this far in advance, but the stronger sfc low sends out a red flag for me. These synoptic set-ups usually don't disappoint for the majority. If I remember correctly, our most active convective day so far this summer involved a closed low. I like to watch out for upper lows, sub 1006-08mb sfc lows, and MCS differential advection as our best T-storm producers during the JJA period. Meant to say Thursday in this post. One potentially major caveat that I see is timing. Would lik to see the FROPA speed up a bit. High tide for convection is usually 18z-00z, maybe as late as 04z, which would place PA/NY at much better risk than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I think the low pressure on the GFS may convective feedback crap...but I also agree that the general pattern is supportive of organized and/or widespread convection from the Great Lakes to the Northeast the end of this week. The NAM, interestingly enough, also has the vort at 66 hrs that produces what seems to be an MCS over the Northeast along the WF http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_18z/f66.gif But I would be interested in the low pressure area over the TN Valley tracking northeast into New England and any potential low level shear and juxtaposition of instability we can get near the warm sector which will creep into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Friday could be a very active day IMO across the Northeast, particularly New England. Whenever you see a closed sfc low, probably sub 1008mb, potentially down as low as 1000mb, you've got to watch out. Closed low up through 850 and 700mb with plenty of WAA, higher dew point advection northeastward into the area. Should be plenty of wind shear associated w/ this system, as well as surface instability via 90 degree temps and 65-70F tds. As we often see around here, the high CAPE/low shear enviros tend to produce scattered intense convection, but mod CAPE/high shear usually more efficient in producing widespread, organized, convection beyond the typical pulsers like we saw today. Helicity values may be elevated closer to the sfc low; I'd think the tornado risk would be increased for portions of NY State, nern PA, into interior New England most likely. The track of the low is obviously important, but there should be enough thermodynamic and kinematic support at our latitude for fairly organized severe. I don't like saying much this far in advance, but the stronger sfc low sends out a red flag for me. These synoptic set-ups usually don't disappoint for the majority. If I remember correctly, our most active convective day so far this summer involved a closed low. I like to watch out for upper lows, sub 1006-08mb sfc lows, and MCS differential advection as our best T-storm producers during the JJA period. I actually think Thursday looks to be the more active day, the 18z NAM has the 1003mb low pressure system over PA/NY and the 18z GFS has a 993mb low over NY, GFS seems more impressive, this storm system on Thursday/Friday time period looks far more dangerous then today's storm system, unlike today in most the risk area, the environment will not be capped, i agree a fairly significant tornado event could be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The SPC SREF has some very impressive early numbers for Thursday evening along the front...with 0-6km bulk shear and effective shear in excess of 40 kts...0-3km helicity over 250 m2/s2 ..and the instability axis shooting north by 2100z. Here are the 0-3km helicity parameters at that hour http://www.spc.noaa...._MXMN__f078.gif The juxtaposition of the aforementioned parameters is even triggering a sigtor over parts of the Northeast http://www.spc.noaa....igtor__f078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I think the low pressure on the GFS may convective feedback crap...but I also agree that the general pattern is supportive of organized and/or widespread convection from the Great Lakes to the Northeast the end of this week. The NAM, interestingly enough, also has the vort at 66 hrs that produces what seems to be an MCS over the Northeast along the WF http://www.meteo.psu...WRF_18z/f66.gif But I would be interested in the low pressure area over the TN Valley tracking northeast into New England and any potential low level shear and juxtaposition of instability we can get near the warm sector which will creep into our area. Yeah it should be an interesting late week. Maybe I've been spoiled with T-storms this summer, but the past couple weeks have been getting boring weather wise. The NAM has an interesting solution...MCS events are a lot harder to forecast from this range but the pattern does support the development of one on the edge of the ballooning mid level ridge. I'm confident there will be organized strong storms around Thurs/thurs night, where they end up exactly is anyone's guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 I actually think Thursday looks to be the more active day, the 18z NAM has the 1003mb low pressure system over PA/NY and the 18z GFS has a 993mb low over NY, GFS seems more impressive, this storm system on Thursday/Friday time period looks far more dangerous then today's storm system, unlike today in most the risk area, the environment will not be capped, i agree a fairly significant tornado event could be possible Agreed, I immediately posted after that I meant to say Thursday. Much more impressive synoptic set up versus today; let's hope it produces. As John noted the shear and helicity parameters look to be quite conducive, in conjunction with the temp/moisture advection into the area throughout the afternoon, spiking instability parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 The timing and a bit of a disjointed look between the best shear and instability would be my main concerns. Those are both some pretty significant issues which hopefully we can get ironed out on the guidance over the next 24-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Would the bigger threat be north or south of the area? I'll be down in AC so hope to see something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Thursday is an interesting situation, the first thing that caught my eye was the strong LLJ (especially for July) and the potential for backed sfc winds, which would create a lot of LL turning considering the southwesterly LLJ at 35-50 kts. Synoptically, definitely some potential here, the position/strength of the sfc low/warm front (and subtle adjustments to it) is obviously going to make a big difference with the possible magnitude of this event. Earthlight raised a good point with the first point on this page, although I'd actually expect some stronger instability than the GFS depicts given the intensity of the LLJ streaming northward throughout the day. The NAM has an entirely different look, though. Will await the 00z Euro to comment further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Thursday is an interesting situation, the first thing that caught my eye was the strong LLJ (especially for July) and the potential for backed sfc winds, which would create a lot of LL turning considering the southwesterly LLJ at 35-50 kts. Synoptically, definitely some potential here, the position/strength of the sfc low/warm front (and subtle adjustments to it) is obviously going to make a big difference with the possible magnitude of this event. Earthlight raised a good point with the first point on this page, although I'd actually expect some stronger instability than the GFS depicts given the intensity of the LLJ streaming northward throughout the day. The NAM has an entirely different look, though. Will await the 00z Euro to comment further. I agree, we have to wait for further model agreement and things to pan out, this has to be a potential to be a significant event from the Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians to the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, today's situation was much weaker and marginal then what's being shown on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 i agree with john, isotherm and bluewave. thursday if the imgredients all come together as far as the location of the surface low, cold/warm front we could be in for some intense severe weather from PA, to the coast into new england. im not sure of the comparison, but last year we had a similar setup where we were in the bullseye for a big severe outbreak and new england got it including that live streamed feed of the springfield,ma tornado. my only concern is that this surface low does track too far to the north and we miss alot if not all the parameters to create and sustain severe weather for our area including coastal areas. the ingredients are there now we just gotta see where they can maximize there potential. hoping this doesnt go north, because this outbreak could finally make some people who have missed out this year have a smie like me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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