weathermedic Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 that has to be dumping some massive rains...wow Radar estimates of 2.5-3 inches so far over the extreme western end of Sussex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Some weak rotation on the Sussex County cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 At least they'll enjoy anvil blowoff! Could screw you guys later in the day if any line makes it to the metro. Plenty of convective debris here in Ramsey currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 SPC waited too long to issue this watch should have been issued by noon - there was already severe weather in progress when issued watch means be on the lookout for severe weather unfortunately some folks up in sussex county had little warning......That storm complex looks like it is going to expand and move southeast / east and move through most of the metro area - question now is will it be just as potent as last fridays severe outbreak........... They didn't wait too long to issue the watch, when it was issued, there was only 1 warning in the watch area when it was issued, and the Sussex County cell was warned in ample time. They had warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wow, cell over Sussex really starting to take on more of a classic supercell look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like that slow moving cell will aim for Parsippany, NJ. CAPE: 2500 LI: -7.5 Low Level Lapse Rate: 7.75 Mid Level Lapse Rate: 6.25 Precipitable Water: 1.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 as john noted, it's starting to drop straight south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Some weak rotation on the Sussex County cell SR Wind (Anvil Level): 30 kts SR Wind (SFC-2KM): <20 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Rotation appears to be becoming slightly more impressive on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Weak rotation now aiming for Hakettstown, NJ and then Livingston, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 She is organizing nicely, wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Rotation seems to be fading a bit. Hmmmm..... :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Rotation seems to be fading a bit. Hmmmm..... :/ The cell is shrinking in size, could be reorganizing, supercells have cycles you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Not sure what u guys are looking at, just looks like a heavy rain producer with hail possible in the strongest areas. Wind doesnt look like a huge threat with weak shear and weak mid-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 The cell is shrinking in size, could be reorganizing, supercells have cycles you know. its not a supercell./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 It looks multicellular to me. Those other echoes that formed around it were new updrafts that ended up being the new, primary updrafts while the original one died. Textbook multicellular convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Very nice TBSS on the Sussex cell. Must be one heck of a light show under that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Not sure what u guys are looking at, just looks like a heavy rain producer with hail possible in the strongest areas. Wind doesnt look like a huge threat with weak shear and weak mid-level winds. effective shear profiles are 20-30kts and are getting it done. Also supercell profiles are 2-4 over the area. Tornado profiles are 0.5. Stop trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Cell is getting healthy again, you can tell by the sudden improvement on 1-hr radar estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Notice the new cell to the SW moving due east, looks to collide with the SuperCell. Supercell also looks to be expanding on the SE flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 There might be some sea breeze boundary penetration as the cell works its way SE. That should help with the directional shear and lift so that even with the not stellar speed shear and slow movement of the cell, it can stay strong. It also might help to fire some convection to the SE of the cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NJC027-041-232000- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0115.120723T1844Z-120723T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 244 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALLAMUCHY-PANTHER VALLEY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... ALLAMUCHY AND ALLAMUCHY-PANTHER VALLEY AROUND 250 PM EDT... BUDD LAKE AROUND 305 PM EDT... NETCONG AROUND 310 PM EDT... MOUNT ARLINGTON AROUND 315 PM EDT... SUCCASUNNA AROUND 320 PM EDT... WHARTON AROUND 325 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AND CAUSE LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. && LAT...LON 4075 7463 4100 7501 4103 7490 4091 7477 4092 7473 4090 7470 4094 7464 4096 7464 4101 7459 4090 7435 TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 295DEG 18KT 4097 7484 $$ NIERENBERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 There might be some sea breeze boundary penetration as the cell works its way SE. That should help with the directional shear and lift so that even with the not stellar speed shear and slow movement of the cell, it can stay strong. It also might help to fire some convection to the SE of the cell. It would appear to be firing that on the SE side currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 It's turning SE, watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Stanhope, NJ is next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Getting some loud and fairly frequent thunder, despite the very weak reflectivity on radar over southern Bergen County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 The thunder at my work here in Peapack NJ just sounded like a freaking explosion, wow. Just to my north the sky is dark as night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Cell is definitely weakening now. Lets see if it can hold together as it drifts south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 You're telling me this looks as impressive as it did a couple frames ago? Get a new radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 You're telling me this looks as impressive as it did a couple frames ago? Not as impressive as it was an hour ago, but still holding together just fine. It was helped by that cell which moved in from the west as well as the new convection that formed on the SE flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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