TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Should be at least a couple severe watches issued this afternoon some place in the 40 % area http://www.spc.noaa....gs/enh_2000.gif Looks like the 40% line misses Brian5671's house. Hopefully the shear is enough to keep the storms moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like the 40% line misses Brian5671's house. Hopefully the shear is enough to keep the storms moving through. I think that places east of the city today are gonna be having a slim chance of seeing severe weather today. Best chances NYC metro N&W as stated before. I got a seebreeze already so anything that does move into my area is sure to fizzle out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 HRRR pretty much what i expect. Weak broken line north and east of the city, stronger more potent line with maybe some bow segments s and w towards philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Looks like the 40% line misses Brian5671's house. Hopefully the shear is enough to keep the storms moving through. that means I will get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 pretty much what i expect. Weak broken line north and east of the city, stronger more potent line with maybe some bow segments s and w towards philly. Looks like all the action is done by 730. Nice and early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 first warning of the afternoon - surprised spc hasn't issued a watch yet 495 WUUS51 KPHI 231632 SVRPHI NJC037-231745- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0112.120723T1632Z-120723T1745Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1232 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MONTAGUE... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 1230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF SOON PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAINESVILLE...OR NEAR MONTAGUE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MONTAGUE AROUND 1240 PM EDT... HIGH POINT AROUND 105 PM EDT... SUSSEX AROUND 120 PM EDT... 8 MILES NORTH OF HAMBURG AROUND 125 PM EDT... VERNON VALLEY AROUND 140 PM EDT... 6 MILES NORTH OF HIGHLAND LAKE AROUND 145 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. LAT...LON 4122 7439 4117 7440 4106 7453 4120 7488 4124 7487 4129 7484 4131 7480 4132 7480 4134 7476 4135 7468 TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 271DEG 17KT 4127 7482 TFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA INTO MUCH OF NY...VT...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231632Z - 231800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WHERE STRONG HEATING WAS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE CU WAS FOCUSED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NY INTO CNTRL/ERN PA. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIN HAS BEEN DIMINISHED AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG EXISTS WITH DECENT PARCEL ACCELERATION THROUGH THE PROFILE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS MARGINAL SHEAR...SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS MARGINAL HAIL. ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/23/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That complex over NW NJ will likely drop south and east instead of moving east towards its own anvil. It's heading into 2000+ joules of cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That complex over NW NJ will likely drop south and east instead of moving east towards its own anvil. It's heading into 2000+ joules of cape. John what does that mean in terms of organization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 very heavy rain in sussex county 298 WGUS51 KPHI 231711 FFWPHI NJC037-232115- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0019.120723T1711Z-120723T2115Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 111 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SUSSEX COUNTY... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT... * AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A PAIR OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY. RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE ALREADY REACHED TWO INCHES AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEWTON. THE GREATEST FLOOD THREAT IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES. PLEASE REPORT FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch now out for the area. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY AD NORTHERN NJ. THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AN MCS OVER ONTARIO WILL ALSO TRACK INTO PARTS OF NY/VT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-005-009-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD NEW HAVEN MAC003-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NJC003-013-017-019-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-039- 041-043-047-053-057-059-061-065-067-071-077-079-081-083-085-087- 089-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-119-123- 240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BRONX BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER KINGS MADISON MONTGOMERY NASSAU NEW YORK ONEIDA ONONDAGA ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM QUEENS RENSSELAER RICHMOND ROCKLAND SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA ST. LAWRENCE STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON WESTCHESTER YATES PAC015-025-037-069-077-079-081-089-093-095-097-103-105-107-113- 115-117-119-127-131-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD CARBON COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MONROE MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE POTTER SCHUYLKILL SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WAYNE WYOMING VTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADDISON BENNINGTON CALEDONIA CHITTENDEN ESSEX FRANKLIN GRAND ISLE LAMOILLE ORANGE ORLEANS RUTLAND WASHINGTON WINDHAM WINDSOR ANZ335-338-355-240300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0504.120723T1725Z-120724T0300Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY NEW YORK HARBOR SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM ATTN...WFO...OKX...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...PHI...BUF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That cell over Sussex county NJ looks like it's in no hurry to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That cell over Sussex county NJ looks like it's in no hurry to move weak shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Big hail core in that Sussex County cell, has got slight rotation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 SPC waited too long to issue this watch should have been issued by noon - there was already severe weather in progress when issued watch means be on the lookout for severe weather unfortunately some folks up in sussex county had little warning...... That storm complex looks like it is going to expand and move southeast / east and move through most of the metro area - question now is will it be just as potent as last fridays severe outbreak........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Big hail core in that Sussex County cell, has got slight rotation too. Looks like they're getting blasted up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Several smaller storms forming around the HP Supercell in Sussex county. It's about to get very busy in North Jersey this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Cells starting to pop now to the west and south of that Sussex county NJ cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 flash flooding is the clear threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 flash flooding is the clear threat Thanks captain obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 that activity is going to backbuild ssw and miss everyone in the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 that has to be dumping some massive rains...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wow, that cell is hardly moving, I should call my cousin who lives in Pike county, storms are building right over his head behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 That storm is coming right for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised to see some hail out of that cell. The VIL is ~75 kg/m2 with low differential reflectivity values and CCs of ~0.9. Not sure if it'll make it down to the ground, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 SPC waited too long to issue this watch should have been issued by noon - there was already severe weather in progress when issued watch means be on the lookout for severe weather unfortunately some folks up in sussex county had little warning...... That storm complex looks like it is going to expand and move southeast / east and move through most of the metro area - question now is will it be just as potent as last fridays severe outbreak........... It was 1 or 2 warnings...relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Had some storms in the Lower Hudson Valley at 7AM this morning. That cell over NW Sussex looks pretty intense. Interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 that activity is going to backbuild ssw and miss everyone in the metro area At least they'll enjoy anvil blowoff! Could screw you guys later in the day if any line makes it to the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.