Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Strange, I've lived on Long Island for the last 41 years and have seen hundreds of thunderstorms during that span....well, maybe it was just my imagination. Not being a Texas homer, but I grew up in Massapequa, and while I saw plenty of thunderstorms, only 2 in my memory approach a "typical" severe thunderstorm after we moved to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. I'm pretty sure the marine cooled air weakens a lot of storms that were severe back further West. You need a decent WSW wind to keep the Atlantic from killing low level instability. OTOH, the apparent tornadic cell just outside Boston involved a severe storm crossing a shallow sea breeze boundary, judging from discussions on that sub-forum yesterday. Going to Catholic school and hating it, I always felt I was in a screw zone when snow would change to rain City and islands, although February 1978 and an entire week missed is a memory I cherish to this day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Depending on the exact track and intensity of this Pac NW shortwave which ejects eastward, we could see significant and/or widespread severe weather across the Northern 1/3 of the country even from the Great Lakes into the Northeast Days 7-9. The SPC has already highlighted some areas in the Days 7-8 outlook for significant severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 I probably picked up less than .5 inches yesterday. Had a quick downpour, some lightning and thunder. Hoping that maybe tommorow morning delivers but we'll see i guess Upton says just rain tonight and Friday. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TRACKING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE DISAGREEMENT LIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS WITH AN INCREASING ELY FLOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE EFFECTS BATTLING HIGH PRES TO THE N. NAM MASS FIELDS APPEARED TO BE THE MOST IN LINE AND SIDED MOSTLY WITH ITS SOLN WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTN...WILL INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY FRI MORNING. SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TONIGHT OR FRI SO NO THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Im suppose to be going to mystic, CT tommorow and saturday is it gonna be a complete washout? Wanna know if i should cancel reservations if im gonna be inside the whole day. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Rain looks scattered at best today and more pronounced towards Friday afternoon and into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Im suppose to be going to mystic, CT tommorow and saturday is it gonna be a complete washout? Wanna know if i should cancel reservations if im gonna be inside the whole day. Thanks on the edge tomorrow-Sat should be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Reading the paper looks like isotherms area got hit hard again.....great year for him Yeah Red Bank had some hail, and winds were pretty strong through Holmdel as well. In my immediate area we had a ton of thunder/lightning but not much else. Only 0.06" of rain yesterday. The cell passed just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Just 0.24" here but the thunder and lightning and gusty winds were the story here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 The lightning over the ocean was epic today best i have seen in 14 summers life guarding at Jones Beach! A solid hour of non stop strikes! They just posted some of the great photos online. http://longbeach.patch.com/articles/photosstormlightsuplongbeach#photo-10703853 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 It's raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Pouring by me. One yellow blip right over my house basically. It's raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 So any forecasts on some strong storms for monday? Looks like some scattered strong/severe storm chances. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 The GFS has been showing activity but doubt its anything widespread or severe So any forecasts on some strong storms for monday? Looks like some scattered strong/severe storm chances. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 12z GFS would indicate severe potential across portions of the northeast around a week out, with a fairly robust shortwave tracking eastward across roughly the Canadian border. Synoptically, it actually looks rather impressive, although to take a single run at this point would be asinine. Edit: Euro shows the same thing and CMC is similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Upton aternoon update : SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHOSE TIMING SHOULD BE A NAM/GFS COMPROMISE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION A EARLY AS MIDDAY ANYWHERE FROM NORTH/WEST...THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AFTER ABOUT 18Z VIA DIFFERENTIAL OROGRAPHIC HEATING IN THE HILLS WELL TO NORTH/WEST...SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST VIA MEAN ESE 0-6 KM FLOW OF ABOUT 20 KT. WITH MLCAPE 1500 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS UP TO 35 KT GENERATED VIA 25-KT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING NW WITH HEIGHT...EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BE SEVERE FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTING SHOULD ALSO BE HAZARDS...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS...WITH THE NAM NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS...SOMEWHAT DRIER IN THE MID LEVELS...AND WITH FASTER CORFIDI VECTORS. HIGH TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE 85-90...HOTTEST IN NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. ENHANCED MIXING INVOF NYC SHOULD HELP LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION TO THE MID 60S...KEEPING MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S...SO WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVY FOR NYC. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT MORE TO CT/LONG ISLAND MON NIGHT...BUT WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PER 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND POSSIBLE RECHARGING OF INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL STORMS...KEPT CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR MON EVENING...THEN TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Hopefully we all capitalize again tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I'll keep an eye on the storms tomorrow. I'll have updated post of what's going on around my area (considering that I'm always getting caught in Lightning Storms lately). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 SPC WRF brings a strong/severe line of convection to the coast tomorrow night. Pretty far out in its range though...and the shear again seems to be lacking just glancing at the spc sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Pretty decent lightning with the storm over rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 The newest SPC WRF from 00x still brings a nice looking area of organized convection through NJ. New SPC outlook brings the slight risk to the coast. I guess we might be able to survive with decent directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Pretty decent lightning with the storm over rockland. Yup, skunked this morning, first lost tee time of the year. Funny thing, there was plenty of lightning in the air and the detection system wasn't going off so a few morons got on the tee box for the first hole, hit their shots, then CRACK, right over the club house, the alarm goes off, and they come running back. Morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Yup, skunked this morning, first lost tee time of the year. Funny thing, there was plenty of lightning in the air and the detection system wasn't going off so we got on the tee box for the first hole, hit our shots, then CRACK, right over the club house, the alarm goes off, and we come running back. Morons. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 nice dump of rain here-about .30 maybe some more this PM. Sun is back out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 FIXED Nope, sorry son, clubs never came out of the trunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Nope, sorry son, clubs never came out of the trunk. did you play through that mess on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 I'm directly in between the two storms in Suffolk County and I don't see or hear anything lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 did you play through that mess on Friday? I did. 1 though 7 were fine had to stop on 8. Waited for 35 mins played 9 through 17 dry 18 was bad. Was in Milford in the only dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Nice cell that popped up in NE PA heading SE. Let's get more of that action down S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Nice cell that popped up in NE PA heading SE. Let's get more of that action down S and E. These storms are really dying.out once they near the hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Should be at least a couple severe watches issued this afternoon some place in the 40 % area http://www.spc.noaa....gs/enh_2000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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