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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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These storms look to be consolidating and moving east/ESE into SE NY. We'd probably need development to take place further south for it to affect more places further south.

I'm crossing my fingers, for some reason, storms either pass to the north or south, never over, it's very frustrating. Best thing to do is probably keep low expectations.

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I'm crossing my fingers, for some reason, storms either pass to the north or south, never over, it's very frustrating. Best thing to do is probably keep low expectations.

It's a bit hard for me to tell exactly where they're going but it looks like an ESE direction taking the center of the cluster a bit north of the NJ/NY line. I almost never have high expectations in cases like this one so I'd be surprised if I actually see a decent storm in my town, but there's still plenty of time left to get into the action.

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Disagree. As Earthlight says there could be an organized damaging wind event if we see a squall line/bow echo form.

This much activity isn't the best thing for severe chances, we would have been better off waiting awhile for the better shear to be in place with the better organization instead of this multi-cell mess. Looks like the biggest threat is locally severe hail.

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clouds have overspread me here in Rockland now.. I tell ya'... temps were still skyrocketing up until the clouds took over.. probably could have added on several more degrees... what an incredibly hot airmass... Looks like main action might go just north of me, but there's so much ongoing development, looks like it can't miss at this point

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999

WFUS51 KBGM 181747

TORBGM

PAC079-131-181845-

/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0001.120718T1747Z-120718T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

147 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

  SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

* AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NOXEN...

  MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  EVANS FALLS BY 155 PM EDT...

  HARVEYS LAKE BY 200 PM EDT...

  BEAUMONT BY 205 PM EDT...

  FERN BROOK AND DALLAS BY 215 PM EDT...

  FALLS BY 220 PM EDT...

  WEST WYOMING AND WYOMING BY 240 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT

1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected].

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT

OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 7620 4151 7616 4146 7581 4144 7582

      4143 7583 4140 7583 4138 7582 4130 7585

TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 285DEG 14KT 4143 7608

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clouds have overspread me here in Rockland now.. I tell ya'... temps were still skyrocketing up until the clouds took over.. probably could have added on several more degrees... what an incredibly hot airmass... Looks like main action might go just north of me, but there's so much ongoing development, looks like it can't miss at this point

there's just too much cape and moisture for anyone to get a big miss

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See Walt Drag is issuing the severe today for Mount Holly

038

WUUS51 KPHI 181749

SVRPHI

NJC037-181815-

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0096.120718T1749Z-120718T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

149 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 146 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

SUSSEX...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 10

MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

HAMBURG AND HIGHLAND LAKE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE

IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...

PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO

GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS

IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE

ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT

WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR

NORTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4123 7442 4122 7439 4118 7439 4110 7448

4110 7449 4115 7466 4122 7463 4124 7443

TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 269DEG 8KT 4117 7462

DRAG

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I never see ANY severe weather where I am, and elevated is about as severe as they ever get where I am.

Elevated convection doesn't refer to the severity of the convection. It has to do with the parcel source, whether it is surface-based or originating from above a frontal surface. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you mean.

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Elevated convection doesn't refer to the severity of the convection. It has to do with the parcel source, whether it is surface-based or originating from above a frontal surface. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you mean.

Thanks for the info, I should have said strong, sorry about that.

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