tornadojay Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 good afternoon gentlemen... been weeks for me since i've posted. Looking forward to the incoming action from NW NJ and SE NY... and just hit 100 degrees officially by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I'm really interested to see if the convection over Northeast Pennsylvania can organize and drop southeast. That would be our best chance at a widespread damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I bet more storms will ignite further south rather than move SE. These storms look to be consolidating and moving east/ESE into SE NY. We'd probably need development to take place further south for it to affect more places further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I wish I could take a panorama shot with my phone. The contrast with blue sky to the south, the anvil edge almost directly overhead, and the cell to my north, is breathtaking. just said the same thing here as I took a pic of about 1/4 of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I wish I could take a panorama shot with my phone. The contrast with blue sky to the south, the anvil edge almost directly overhead, and the cell to my north, is breathtaking. Nothing here in Massapequa (as usual), where are you right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Beautiful anvil on the storm along the North Shore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Just some light rain so far in Oyster Bay, LI. That line to the northwest looks mighty nice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Pretty explosive development over the past hour. It almost looks like one large line is trying to form from the Hudson Valley back to Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 These storms look to be consolidating and moving east/ESE into SE NY. We'd probably need development to take place further south for it to affect more places further south. I'm crossing my fingers, for some reason, storms either pass to the north or south, never over, it's very frustrating. Best thing to do is probably keep low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Might be a bit early to call but looks like a hook might be trying to develop in central dutchess cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This much activity isn't the best thing for severe chances, we would have been better off waiting awhile for the better shear to be in place with the better organization instead of this multi-cell mess. Looks like the biggest threat is locally severe hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Man PA is lighting up, hopefully those storms to our NW drop south later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I feel like I should head up north but I know as soon as I do storms will develop over our area. I'm crossing my fingers, for some reason, storms either pass to the north or south, never over, it's very frustrating. Best thing to do is probably keep low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I'm crossing my fingers, for some reason, storms either pass to the north or south, never over, it's very frustrating. Best thing to do is probably keep low expectations. It's a bit hard for me to tell exactly where they're going but it looks like an ESE direction taking the center of the cluster a bit north of the NJ/NY line. I almost never have high expectations in cases like this one so I'd be surprised if I actually see a decent storm in my town, but there's still plenty of time left to get into the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I wish I could take a panorama shot with my phone. The contrast with blue sky to the south, the anvil edge almost directly overhead, and the cell to my north, is breathtaking. I think it's time for an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Disagree. As Earthlight says there could be an organized damaging wind event if we see a squall line/bow echo form. This much activity isn't the best thing for severe chances, we would have been better off waiting awhile for the better shear to be in place with the better organization instead of this multi-cell mess. Looks like the biggest threat is locally severe hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Brand new cells popping in Warren County and now much further south near PHL and TTN, could be a few discreat supercells in the area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 clouds have overspread me here in Rockland now.. I tell ya'... temps were still skyrocketing up until the clouds took over.. probably could have added on several more degrees... what an incredibly hot airmass... Looks like main action might go just north of me, but there's so much ongoing development, looks like it can't miss at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Getting cloudy here, maybe I might see something elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Getting cloudy here, maybe I might see something elevated. Why would it be elevated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 seabreeze front clearly visible into CT and SE NY-wonder how it might interact with the outflow from approaching storms...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 thunder in distance now in Nanuet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 999 WFUS51 KBGM 181747 TORBGM PAC079-131-181845- /O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0001.120718T1747Z-120718T1845Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 147 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 245 PM EDT. * AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NOXEN... MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EVANS FALLS BY 155 PM EDT... HARVEYS LAKE BY 200 PM EDT... BEAUMONT BY 205 PM EDT... FERN BROOK AND DALLAS BY 215 PM EDT... FALLS BY 220 PM EDT... WEST WYOMING AND WYOMING BY 240 PM EDT... WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && LAT...LON 4138 7620 4151 7616 4146 7581 4144 7582 4143 7583 4140 7583 4138 7582 4130 7585 TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 285DEG 14KT 4143 7608 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Why would it be elevated? I never see ANY severe weather where I am, and elevated is about as severe as they ever get where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 clouds have overspread me here in Rockland now.. I tell ya'... temps were still skyrocketing up until the clouds took over.. probably could have added on several more degrees... what an incredibly hot airmass... Looks like main action might go just north of me, but there's so much ongoing development, looks like it can't miss at this point there's just too much cape and moisture for anyone to get a big miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I never see ANY severe weather where I am, and elevated is about as severe as they ever get where I am. We know, you say it every other post. Please stop clogging up the threads with this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 See Walt Drag is issuing the severe today for Mount Holly 038 WUUS51 KPHI 181749 SVRPHI NJC037-181815- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0096.120718T1749Z-120718T1815Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 149 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 146 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUSSEX...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HAMBURG AND HIGHLAND LAKE PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. LAT...LON 4123 7442 4122 7439 4118 7439 4110 7448 4110 7449 4115 7466 4122 7463 4124 7443 TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 269DEG 8KT 4117 7462 DRAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I never see ANY severe weather where I am, and elevated is about as severe as they ever get where I am. Elevated convection doesn't refer to the severity of the convection. It has to do with the parcel source, whether it is surface-based or originating from above a frontal surface. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Elevated convection doesn't refer to the severity of the convection. It has to do with the parcel source, whether it is surface-based or originating from above a frontal surface. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you mean. Thanks for the info, I should have said strong, sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Little cell forming right on top of me and in northern Queens. Getting some rain from it at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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