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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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the question after today might be : should a Mod risk of been issued?

There is no specific high probability threat area, instead a decent threat over a broad area. Not a situation for a moderate risk at all. If a locally enhanced threat can develop over the next couple of hours near a juxtaposition of shear and high instability, maybe higher probabilities or hatching will be introduced. But I don't think that's likely.

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the question after today might be : should a Mod risk of been issued ?

capes around 5000 and LI's around -9. Almost unheard of for this area.

small storms will turn into big ones quick.

Why don't we wait to see what happens first. Instability isn't the only factor in large outbreaks. (Had we had this instability with 40 kts of 0-6km shear ... then we're talkin').

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