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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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I thought this morning too. That alot of action today, will be when the cold front and sea-breeze fronts converge.

We still have a couple of hours at least...the new updrafts going in Eastern PA could be the start of greater areal coverage of storms. But the shear isn't too impressive on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Some of the more organized convection could stay over New England into Southwest CT and Central Long Island near the more impressive shear parameters.

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We still have a couple of hours at least...the new updrafts going in Eastern PA could be the start of greater areal coverage of storms. But the shear isn't too impressive on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Some of the more organized convection could stay over New England into Southwest CT and Central Long Island near the more impressive shear parameters.

quick question, central LI would include eastern nassau on east correct? its such a technicality with the island sometimes

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We still have a couple of hours at least...the new updrafts going in Eastern PA could be the start of greater areal coverage of storms. But the shear isn't too impressive on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Some of the more organized convection could stay over New England into Southwest CT and Central Long Island near the more impressive shear parameters.

What are our values? I think we could still muster solid multicellular convection and decent hail cores, but we don't have the shear for supercells like they do up north.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOUNT POCONO... SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEWTON... NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALPINE MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES EAST OF MOUNT POCONO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... ECHO LAKE AROUND 340 PM EDT... FLATBROOKVILLE AROUND 345 PM EDT... BLAIRSTOWN AROUND 350 PM EDT... FIVE POINTS AROUND 355 PM EDT... NEWTON AROUND 405 PM EDT... ANDOVER AROUND 410 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

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What are our values? I think we could still muster solid multicellular convection and decent hail cores, but we don't have the shear for supercells like they do up north.

0-6km shear is less than 30kts. Effective shear is around 25 kts. Not much higher elsewhere, but effective shear up to around 30-35kts on Long Island.

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0-6km shear is less than 30kts. Effective shear is around 25 kts. Not much higher elsewhere, but effective shear up to around 30-35kts on Long Island.

Meh. Perhaps when the sea breeze boundary gains strength and moves a bit west, that could change the surface wind direction and increase our low level shear?

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