LocoAko Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 How can that be? Jersey shore on south has gotten slammed multiple times, Long Island has gotten hit pretty hard, Southern CT/Westchester slammed this weekend...so pretty much just NE NJ and the 5 boroughs My point was that unless you have a derecho/strong squall line or a supercell that severe reports are generally isolated. Maybe we're using different definitions of 'severe' but despite the Jersey Shore getting hit hard this year so far most individual towns, in a typical year, don't see severe weather. I've lived in Jersey City and in New Brunswick and in the past 10 years I can only think of one or two times where we truly got borderline severe weather (hail > 1" in diameter and/or wind gusts > 50 kts). It is the nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 89 already. Warming up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 NAM continues to center the best storms near NYC and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today Where are you located? Sun has broken through and is quickly burning off the clouds up here in Oyster Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Per the SPC, portions of C NJ are already over 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. The sun is doing its thing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This is one of the more impressive 12z OKX soundings that we have seen during a severe day here in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowKitty96 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I live in Bayville on the North Shore of Long Island and we've had some pretty strong storms this year that come in off the sound. I don't know how to quantify the storms in true meterlogical terms but this past Sunday the wind really picked up and there was enough rain to flood the streets (not uncommon but not a regular event) and there was frequent lighting and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today Where are you located? Sun has broken through and is quickly burning off the clouds up here in Oyster Bay. Plenty of sun here in Carle Place too. Most of the earlier junk was gone by about 9:00. We should be okay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today those will move out quickly-they just passed through here and sun is back out-up to 90 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This is one of the more impressive 12z OKX soundings that we have seen during a severe day here in a while. better Helicity and we would really be rocking today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 better Helicity and we would really be rocking today. It's coming on the sixth anniversary of this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 New SPC MCD is somewhat strongly worded...95% chance of watch issuance and mention of strong winds and severe hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 New SPC MCD is somewhat strongly worded...95% chance of watch issuance and mention of strong winds and severe hail. with a sounding like that, watch is no brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The issue for me with the severity of the event will be whether we can develop bowing segments and organized wind damage potential, or of things stay mostly multicellular in nature. Being on the fringe of good shear and having great instability is never a bad spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Does anyone else remember the 7/18/97 event? I was on painkillers and had some minor surgery that day and my dad yelled up the stairs saying 70mph winds were happening and I can remember hobbling over to the window to watch. It was definitely one of the more impressive squall lines to come through and EWR hit 100 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The issue for me with the severity of the event will be whether we can develop bowing segments and organized wind damage potential, or of things stay mostly multicellular in nature. Being on the fringe of good shear and having great instability is never a bad spot to be. Yeah. I have a good feeling about today, but in general iffy shear makes me worry. I know it should sink south as the day progresses but I feel as if on days where shear is marginal that is very hard to overcome (much moreso than marginal instability). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 SBCAPE is initialized at 2500-3500 across the entire area right now. Supercell and Craven Significant Severe numbers are impressive, especially in the Hudson Valley and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It seems like a long shot right now, but looking at the meso page...we might see some slightly stronger bulk shear than originally thought. Maybe upwards of 40 knots if things work out nicely. LI is already down to -8C near Philly and LL lapse rates area near 7 over the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Yeah. I have a good feeling about today, but in general iffy shear makes me worry. I know it should sink south as the day progresses but I feel as if on days where shear is marginal that is very hard to overcome (much moreso than marginal instability). Yes, the axis of shear indicates that the stronger storms may actually be north and northeast of NYC metro. This shows up well with Craven Sig Svr values over 60K in Mass. That's crazy! (Craven factors CAPE with shear) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA/NJ TO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 181425Z - 181630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OR MUCH OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND BY 15Z-16Z. DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM LAKE ERIE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STEADILY WARMING AMID RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F. INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA AS OF 14Z. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL AIDE OF NEAR-COASTAL/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUCH AS BUF/ALB/OKX...MUCH OF THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT /30-50 KT 3-6 KM/ AND COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/. WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LIKELIHOOD OF 2000-3500 J/KG SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS...AND THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES/SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Yes, the axis of shear indicates that the stronger storms may actually be north and northeast of NYC metro. This shows up well with Craven Sig Svr values over 60K in Mass. That's crazy! (Craven factors CAPE with shear) Quickly drops south into the area based on the RAP forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The SPC Mesoanalysis might be underestimating 0-6km shear by 5-10kts. Based on the 12z OKX and ALB soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The models had been pushing the best deep layer shear slightly south with every cycle..so it wouldn't surprise me to see it things slide south again. Also as mentioned already the soundings are 5-10kts stronger than the spc mesoanalysis (which is odd, i can't remember seeing that before). Either way...often when you get storms forming on the fringes of impressive shear, the shift south can be less dramatic than thought..in fact storms could move east or even northeast...it will be important to watch the 10m winds as well. Some models were showing 10m winds turning northwest over Southeast NY and CT/MA by 15-18z...which would indicate the boundary to fire convection had shifted south nearer to NYC. One NAM run showed this very well yesterday on the 10m streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 GFS centers the heaviest storms over LI and into CT. NAM right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 GFS centers the heaviest storms over LI and into CT. NAM right over NYC. We will see shortly I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 GFS centers the heaviest storms over LI and into CT. NAM right over NYC. They both give a precip signal of training storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Grossly hot here. Barely any clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 SPC taking their good ole time issuing any watches and the radar looks empty right now http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=ENX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 SPC taking their good ole time issuing any watches and the radar looks empty right nowhttp://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=ENX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 They'll issue one around the top of the hour. The SPC MD mentioned 15-16z and the watches are almost always issued around the top of the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It's so oppressive out, now it's just a waiting game..we are waiting for the shortwave to lift this unstable airmass and when it does, the atmosphere will ignite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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