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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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How can that be? Jersey shore on south has gotten slammed multiple times, Long Island has gotten hit pretty hard, Southern CT/Westchester slammed this weekend...so pretty much just NE NJ and the 5 boroughs

My point was that unless you have a derecho/strong squall line or a supercell that severe reports are generally isolated. Maybe we're using different definitions of 'severe' but despite the Jersey Shore getting hit hard this year so far most individual towns, in a typical year, don't see severe weather. I've lived in Jersey City and in New Brunswick and in the past 10 years I can only think of one or two times where we truly got borderline severe weather (hail > 1" in diameter and/or wind gusts > 50 kts). It is the nature of the beast.

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Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today

Where are you located? Sun has broken through and is quickly burning off the clouds up here in Oyster Bay.

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I live in Bayville on the North Shore of Long Island and we've had some pretty strong storms this year that come in off the sound. I don't know how to quantify the storms in true meterlogical terms but this past Sunday the wind really picked up and there was enough rain to flood the streets (not uncommon but not a regular event) and there was frequent lighting and thunder.

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Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today

Where are you located? Sun has broken through and is quickly burning off the clouds up here in Oyster Bay.

Plenty of sun here in Carle Place too. Most of the earlier junk was gone by about 9:00. We should be okay here.

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Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today

those will move out quickly-they just passed through here and sun is back out-up to 90 already

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The issue for me with the severity of the event will be whether we can develop bowing segments and organized wind damage potential, or of things stay mostly multicellular in nature. Being on the fringe of good shear and having great instability is never a bad spot to be.

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Does anyone else remember the 7/18/97 event? I was on painkillers and had some minor surgery that day and my dad yelled up the stairs saying 70mph winds were happening and I can remember hobbling over to the window to watch. It was definitely one of the more impressive squall lines to come through and EWR hit 100 the day before.

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The issue for me with the severity of the event will be whether we can develop bowing segments and organized wind damage potential, or of things stay mostly multicellular in nature. Being on the fringe of good shear and having great instability is never a bad spot to be.

Yeah. I have a good feeling about today, but in general iffy shear makes me worry. I know it should sink south as the day progresses but I feel as if on days where shear is marginal that is very hard to overcome (much moreso than marginal instability).

shr6.gif

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Yeah. I have a good feeling about today, but in general iffy shear makes me worry. I know it should sink south as the day progresses but I feel as if on days where shear is marginal that is very hard to overcome (much moreso than marginal instability).

Yes, the axis of shear indicates that the stronger storms may actually be north and northeast of NYC metro. This shows up well with Craven Sig Svr values over 60K in Mass. That's crazy! (Craven factors CAPE with shear)

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0925 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA/NJ TO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181425Z - 181630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL

THIS AFTERNOON...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL

OR MUCH OF PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND BY 15Z-16Z.

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM LAKE

ERIE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL NEW

ENGLAND. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STEADILY

WARMING AMID RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F.

INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL

PA AS OF 14Z. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL AIDE

OF NEAR-COASTAL/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...IT SEEMS

VERY LIKELY THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE

INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF PA/NJ AND

SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUCH AS BUF/ALB/OKX...MUCH OF THE

REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT

/30-50 KT 3-6 KM/ AND COINCIDES WITH A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID

LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND/. WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LIKELIHOOD OF

2000-3500 J/KG SBCAPE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG/SEVERE TSTM

DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY/MID

AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED

MULTICELLS...AND THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR AREAS SUCH AS

NORTHEAST PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOWING

STRUCTURES/SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND

PERHAPS A TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/18/2012

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The models had been pushing the best deep layer shear slightly south with every cycle..so it wouldn't surprise me to see it things slide south again. Also as mentioned already the soundings are 5-10kts stronger than the spc mesoanalysis (which is odd, i can't remember seeing that before).

Either way...often when you get storms forming on the fringes of impressive shear, the shift south can be less dramatic than thought..in fact storms could move east or even northeast...it will be important to watch the 10m winds as well. Some models were showing 10m winds turning northwest over Southeast NY and CT/MA by 15-18z...which would indicate the boundary to fire convection had shifted south nearer to NYC. One NAM run showed this very well yesterday on the 10m streamlines.

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They'll issue one around the top of the hour. The SPC MD mentioned 15-16z and the watches are almost always issued around the top of the hour.

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