Guest Pamela Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 everything good has collapsed this year for me I rememeber being depressed for a spell when I was your age (a long, long, time ago). Don't worry, you'll get over it. These are the best years of your life...my father told me the same thing when I was your age...didn't believe him...but now realize he was 100% correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I rememeber being depressed for a spell when I was your age (a long, long, time ago). Don't worry, you'll get over it. These are the best years of your life...my father told me the same thing when I was your age...didn't believe him...but now realize he was 100% correct. Where do you think storms are worse, Plainview where you used to live, or Port Jeff? Im thinking Plaintview further west, but PJ is north so you get those nasty cells from CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Where do you think storms are worse, Plainview where you used to live, or Port Jeff? Im thinking Plaintview further west, but PJ is north so you get those nasty cells from CT... Moved to Plainview in 1971...resided there until 1994...there were certainly some good t-storms there over the years...but as far as comparison and such...a good deal harder as there were so few weather resources outside of NOAA weather radio and TWC radar did not come along till 1982...and internet not till a decade later...as I posted a few days ago...Port Jeff seems exceptionally wet during the summer (at least during my watch)...and they seem a fair bit wetter during the warm season than say the East End where sea breezes obviously promote stability and discourage the development of cumulonimbus clouds...but as far as comparisons...I have not owned a rain gauge in recent years so I could not say for certain vs Plainview...I'm more of a winter climate guy (in terms of interest)...and can say w/o equivocation Port Jeff is a good deal snowier than Plainview...even though the period I lived in Plainview was in general a bad stretch for snow relative to normal....while the exact opposite has been true while living out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 We missed out on most of the severe storms where I live in Nassau county this year also they all seem to go East or west of us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 We missed out on most of the severe storms where I live in Nassau county this year also they all seem to go East or west of us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 KLGA RAP sounding for 22Z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Smok eater just couse you dont agree with what I said doesnt mean that it's wrong so just keep your pics to your self and do what your name says and eat smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Smok eater just couse you dont agree with what I said doesnt mean that it's wrong so just keep your pics to your self and do what your name says and eat smoke Is it possible that you can actually add something to the discussion, other then stupid blabbing and whining? I highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 have you added anything worth while beside stupid pics or comments about what other people say witch you don't agree with.. Um no that's what I thought why can't you just keep your insults to your self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 have you added anything worth while beside stupid pics or comments about what other people say witch you don't agree with.. Um no that's what I thought why can't you just keep your insults to your self Thanks for proving my point, lol. I won't muck up the thread any longer with arguing, I suggest you do the same with your whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 So when are the storms suppose to be firing today? After 2-3 or earlier than that? Rain, wind and hail being the biggest threat today i think anybody who can get under these storms today should see a pretty good thunderstorm. Cape values are more than adequete, how about the shear/mid-level lapse rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 You can see the clouds with the front to our north across NY State. It looks like severe convection will fire later this morning to our north and drop down toward our area around 17-18z. We are already destabilizing quite nicely for so early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Moved to Plainview in 1971...resided there until 1994...there were certainly some good t-storms there over the years...but as far as comparison and such...a good deal harder as there were so few weather resources outside of NOAA weather radio and TWC radar did not come along till 1982...and internet not till a decade later...as I posted a few days ago...Port Jeff seems exceptionally wet during the summer (at least during my watch)...and they seem a fair bit wetter during the warm season than say the East End where sea breezes obviously promote stability and discourage the development of cumulonimbus clouds...but as far as comparisons...I have not owned a rain gauge in recent years so I could not say for certain vs Plainview...I'm more of a winter climate guy (in terms of interest)...and can say w/o equivocation Port Jeff is a good deal snowier than Plainview...even though the period I lived in Plainview was in general a bad stretch for snow relative to normal....while the exact opposite has been true while living out here... And this is a lesson to how the grass is always greener. My mom was raised in Plainview, lived there from 1955-65, and to this day will complain about how Plainview was SO much snowier than anywhere else she's lived in the NYC area. No amount of data will convince her otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 From TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 why no severe thunderstorm watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The 9z HRRR has a developing squall line moving through area between 12pm and 4pm today: 12z OKX sounding is already very unstable. CAPES over 2000 and 3000 j/kg. 700-500mb 7.7 C/km lapse rate: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 Expect Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for all of NYC Metro any time now - probably be the first of at least 2 issued today the second being for areas south and possibly further east of the metro in long island and across central and southern NJ and southeast PA ..............main threat is strong straight line winds - hail and frequent lightning .........also locally heavy rain causing flooding in poor drainage areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Expect Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued for all of NYC Metro any time now - probably be the first of at least 2 issued today the second being for areas south and possibly further east of the metro in long island and across central and southern NJ and southeast PA ..............main threat is strong straight line winds - hail and frequent lightning ......... Looks like the worst will be moving through right in the middle of rush hour...should be a disaster of a commute home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Looks like a good call for the 30% wind area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 86/76 now in C NJ with a HI of 96. Pretty remarkable for 9:15 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 watch is guaranteed, they have even added 2% TOR probs to the outlook, but we still far short of good TOR parameters on that sounding. Nice EML today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 why no severe thunderstorm watch? too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 86/76 now in C NJ with a HI of 96. Pretty remarkable for 9:15 in the morning. if we hold onto sun today, all areas will torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It's a shame that nobody reads Upton's AFD's Pretty good one regarding todays threat. BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS OF HRRR AND NSSL WRF...STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE CELLS START FIRING UP ALONG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND 17Z AFTER WHICH THEY WILL BE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK GOING INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST REGION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION COULD ALSO OCCUR FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WIND SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM 0-6 KM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. THIS IS CONSIDERED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL FROM LOW TO MID LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS. THE CONVECTIVE MODE LOOKS TO BE SQUALL LINE TO BOW ECHOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 If lapse rates can actually get to 8.5, then the hail threat with any discrete cell that forms could be a little beefier than currently indicated. Although, all the moisture loading could make it a bit difficult for vigoruous updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It's a shame that nobody reads Upton's AFD's Pretty good one regarding todays threat. BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS OF HRRR AND NSSL WRF...STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE CELLS START FIRING UP ALONG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND 17Z AFTER WHICH THEY WILL BE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK GOING INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST REGION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION COULD ALSO OCCUR FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WIND SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM 0-6 KM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. THIS IS CONSIDERED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL FROM LOW TO MID LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF CELLS. THE CONVECTIVE MODE LOOKS TO BE SQUALL LINE TO BOW ECHOES. i think almost everyone on the board reads the AFD's...i know i do 4-5 times a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 18, 2012 Author Share Posted July 18, 2012 if we hold onto sun today, all areas will torch. we are off to the races here with the temp - just touched 90 at 9:25 am in northern middlesex county NJ - if we continue getting enough sunshine we will hit 100 before noon - impressive to say the least ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 i think almost everyone on the board reads the AFD's...i know i do 4-5 times a day Poor choice of words on my part. Just seems like there are some questions on here that could be easily explained by reading their discussion. Things should continue to destabilize as that front drops in. Already close to 55 knots of bulk shear in NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 933 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 182100- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 933 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CREATED A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BEGINNING AROUND NOON OR 1 PM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...REACHING NEW YORK CITY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. $$ GS/BG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Alot of clouds here on LI already so were not warming as fast or as much as central jersy is. Will that affect our chances of getting severe storms like last time or is it diff today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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