Weathergun Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Slight Risk from SPC on Wednesday: ...SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND...PA...FAR NERN OH... STORMS SHOULD FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AS CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE PRECIPITATION LOADING...AND MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE BEST AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SOME HAIL STONES COULD APPROACH 2.00 INCHES DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK FOR ANY TORNADO THREAT...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Slight Risk from SPC on Wednesday: ...SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND...PA...FAR NERN OH... STORMS SHOULD FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AS CIN WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE PRECIPITATION LOADING...AND MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE BEST AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SOME HAIL STONES COULD APPROACH 2.00 INCHES DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK FOR ANY TORNADO THREAT...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE. Tomorrow will be active for sure. I am just glad most of the strong stuff happens during afternoon/early.evening so I am not woken up and lose more sleep. Hopefully storms weaken by midnight to allow for a good night sleep. Then its perfect weather until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Nice disco from Upton. Tomorrow could be pretty active around the area if things set up nicely. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL NY/NEW ENGLAND BY WED MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT FAVORED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS FAVORED AHEAD/ALONG THE COLD FRONT/PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING COINCIDENT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT BECOMES SEMI- ALIGNED WITH STEERING FLOW...AND THIS WILL PRESENT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Figures the best chance of severe storm this summer and I'm stuck inside a warehouse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Figures the best chance of severe storm this summer and I'm stuck inside a warehouse... Wouldnt be too depressed, how many severe threats actually materialized this summer? Not many at all and this didnt even start yet so no reason to be down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 With the frontal boundary sinking south on Wednesday along with some moderately favorable bulk shear (around 30 kts) it looks like we could see more potential for organized severe storms. The best shear and instability juxtaposition lies just to our north on most models at the time, over Southeastern New York and into parts of Southwestern New England. That being said, organized storms could develop and sink south towards higher instability later in the afternoon. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2012071603/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f063.gif Continue to believe that tomorrow offers potential for organized storms, potentially including bowing segments sliding southeast from Southern New England into the NYC area and as far south as Central New Jersey. Forecast 0-6km and effective shear parameters show the best juxtaposition of shear and instability to the north of NYC, with support for organized convection to then shift south towards high cape environment by afternoon. The low level shear is weak but also suggests a small threat for supercells may materialize over potions of west/southwestern New England near Eastern NY and Western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Right on cue, the new SPC Day 2 now features a large 30% probability including the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Just pray they don't go any higher for tomorrow... ...NERN CONUS TO OH/INDIANA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONT DURING DAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE S OF FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENS MLCINH. GREATEST RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS AND OF SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD AT LEAST OVER PORTIONS PA... CORRIDOR OF WEAK SFC WLYS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD KEEP MARINE LAYER CLOSE TO COAST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...FOSTERING STG DIABATIC HEATING INLAND WITH SFC TEMPS 90S F IN MOST PREFRONTAL AREAS. WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 2000-300 J/KG IN FCST SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MODEST OVER MOST OF THIS REGION AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER PROFILES....ALTHOUGH EARLY CONVECTION ALONG FRONT WILL BE LOCATED UNDER SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Right on cue, the new SPC Day 2 now features a large 30% probability including the entire area. Earthlight my apologies for being bitter about this severe weather thing. Its just soooo damn hard to get severe weather or atleast an exciting thunderstorm where i am in southwest suffolk. Just hope the storms that do develop in CT actually drop down into LI and actually give us a good show for once this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Much of LI has already done alot better than my area the past 2 years thats for sure. Earthlight my apologies for being bitter about this severe weather thing. Its just soooo damn hard to get severe weather or atleast an exciting thunderstorm where i am in southwest suffolk. Just hope the storms that do develop in CT actually drop down into LI and actually give us a good show for once this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Earthlight my apologies for being bitter about this severe weather thing. Its just soooo damn hard to get severe weather or atleast an exciting thunderstorm where i am in southwest suffolk. Just hope the storms that do develop in CT actually drop down into LI and actually give us a good show for once this season 12z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I dont know what part of LI your talking about but where i am in southwest suffolk county on long island near the south shore, severe storms are as scarse as hens teeth where i am. I havent seen a storm with even high wind gusts, small hail or really loud thunder in atleast a couple years. Yea othe parts of long island have seen some action but me it all been missing the past two years or mor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Earthlight my apologies for being bitter about this severe weather thing. Its just soooo damn hard to get severe weather or atleast an exciting thunderstorm where i am in southwest suffolk. Just hope the storms that do develop in CT actually drop down into LI and actually give us a good show for once this season At this point I think everyone is aware that our area hasn't fared well with organized thunderstorm events recently. So it's not totally worth repeating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 At this point I think everyone is aware that our area hasn't fared well with organized thunderstorm events recently. So it's not totally worth repeating. its so weird a typical day with scattered thunderstom chances has delivered alot more this season as far as coverage than when SPC like tommorow states a threat for severe weather. I mean i wouldnt call it busting because seems the rest of the area being included in the discussion has gotten severe storms just not the coverage predicted by the HPC. One thing they did do a phenominal job on was the forecast for the derecho that hit the D.C., virginia area etc. They really did a good job in forecasting the past from the ohio valley to the eastern seaboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 its so weird a typical day with scattered thunderstom chances has delivered alot more this season as far as coverage than when SPC like tommorow states a threat for severe weather. I mean i wouldnt call it busting because seems the rest of the area being included in the discussion has gotten severe storms just not the coverage predicted by the HPC. One thing they did do a phenominal job on was the forecast for the derecho that hit the D.C., virginia area etc. They really did a good job in forecasting the past from the ohio valley to the eastern seaboard I partially disagree. Once it was clear that the beast would cross the Appalachians and hit DC metro head on, then yes SPC did a fine job. Earlier SPC convective outlooks from that day (as late as 4 PM) however thought it would not cross, which lost a few hours' lead time where people could have been spurred to action during the late afternoon newscasts, rather than closer to or after dark. Easy to play Monday Morning QB so I'm not sure how I would have done in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 I dont know what part of LI your talking about but where i am in southwest suffolk county on long island near the south shore, severe storms are as scarse as hens teeth where i am. I havent seen a storm with even high wind gusts, small hail or really loud thunder in atleast a couple years. Yea othe parts of long island have seen some action but me it all been missing the past two years or mor Regrettably, it is an imperfect world in which we live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Regrettably, it is an imperfect world in which we live... Yea...I know you and I have had our fair share of severe already...maybe tomorrow blizzard will get his wish and southwest Suffolk will get an f3 tornado causing mass chaos...I think farmingdale area had a tornado back in the day...somewhere near there in the armpit of Suffolk county...if any part if Suffolk could use a Makeover its southwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yea...I know you and I have had our fair share of severe already...maybe tomorrow blizzard will get his wish and southwest Suffolk will get an f3 tornado causing mass chaos...I think farmingdale area had a tornado back in the day...somewhere near there in the armpit of Suffolk county...if any part if Suffolk could use a Makeover its southwest... armpit? i mean i dont want a tornado but some action would be very welcome. just sucks when almost everyone around me is reporting a nice thunderstorm and the best i come up with is a good rain shower lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 armpit? i mean i dont want a tornado but some action would be very welcome. just sucks when almost everyone around me is reporting a nice thunderstorm and the best i come up with is a good rain shower lol This is one of the better storm years for long island so its very strange that you complain. I know the north shore of Suffolk has gotten slammed over and over this summer. You telling you missed out on all of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This is one of the better storm years for long island so its very strange that you complain. I know the north shore of Suffolk has gotten slammed over and over this summer. You telling you missed out on all of that? in simple terms, yes. if there was a loop to show you all storms that came across long island from may to now id be the very very few that has seen close to nothing compared to the rest. i wouldnt be saying this just to start stuff. north shore id say does much better than the south shore with storms 80% of the time over the south shore. countless times ive seen intense severe storms over the north shore weaken by the time they get to me to a simple garden variety t-storm that in the end is a quick downpour and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I partially disagree. Once it was clear that the beast would cross the Appalachians and hit DC metro head on, then yes SPC did a fine job. Earlier SPC convective outlooks from that day (as late as 4 PM) however thought it would not cross, which lost a few hours' lead time where people could have been spurred to action during the late afternoon newscasts, rather than closer to or after dark. Easy to play Monday Morning QB so I'm not sure how I would have done in that situation. Was it really this late before they increased the risk through DC? I remember looking at the CAPE early in the afternoon and thinking that thing was gonna plow right through to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 This is one of the better storm years for long island so its very strange that you complain. I know the north shore of Suffolk has gotten slammed over and over this summer. You telling you missed out on all of that? in simple terms, yes. if there was a loop to show you all storms that came across long island from may to now id be the very very few that has seen close to nothing compared to the rest. i wouldnt be saying this just to start stuff. north shore id say does much better than the south shore with storms 80% of the time over the south shore. countless times ive seen intense severe storms over the north shore weaken by the time they get to me to a simple garden variety t-storm that in the end is a quick downpour and thats it. Are the figures below consistent with your assertions above? JUN-12 FOR ISLIP, NY (85') LAT=40.8N LON= 73.1W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 72 58 65 72 55 64 +1 trace 0.0 0 0 2 78 61 70 73 56 64 +6 1.31 0.0 0 0 3 78 55 67 73 56 65 +2 0.06 0.0 0 0 4 64 53 59 73 56 65 -6 trace 0.0 0 6 5 66 51 59 74 57 65 -6 trace 0.0 0 6 6 70 49 60 74 57 66 -6 0.00 0.0 0 5 7 74 57 66 74 57 66 +0 0.02 0.0 0 0 8 81 56 69 75 58 66 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 9 76 62 69 75 58 67 +2 trace 0.0 0 0 10 82 62 72 75 59 67 +5 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 72 63 68 75 59 67 +1 0.01 0.0 0 0 12 72 63 68 76 59 68 +0 0.57 0.0 0 0 13 67 64 66 76 60 68 -2 1.75 0.0 0 0 14 73 56 65 76 60 68 -3 trace 0.0 0 0 15 78 55 67 77 60 68 -1 0.00 0.0 0 0 16 77 56 67 77 61 69 -2 0.00 0.0 0 0 17 68 54 61 77 61 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 18 68 54 61 78 61 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 19 72 60 66 78 62 70 -4 0.00 0.0 0 0 20 91 66 79 78 62 70 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 21 95 77 86 78 62 70 +16 0.00 0.0 0 0 22 94 70 82 79 62 71 +11 0.62 0.0 0 0 23 85 66 76 79 63 71 +5 0.13 0.0 0 0 24 82 63 73 79 63 71 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 25 75 59 67 79 63 71 -4 4.14 0.0 0 0 26 73 56 65 80 64 72 -7 0.00 0.0 0 0 27 82 58 70 80 64 72 -2 0.00 0.0 0 0 28 86 59 73 80 64 72 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 29 93 69 81 80 64 72 +9 0.19 0.0 0 0 30 93 70 82 80 64 72 +10 0.00 0.0 0 0 JUL-12 FOR ISLIP, NY (85') LAT=40.8N LON= 73.1W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 89 69 79 81 65 73 +6 0.03 0.0 0 0 2 86 66 76 81 65 73 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 3 86 64 75 81 65 73 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 4 84 71 78 81 65 73 +5 0.13 0.0 0 0 5 91 72 82 81 65 73 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 6 87 68 78 81 65 73 +5 0.00 0.0 0 0 7 95 74 85 81 66 73 +12 trace 0.0 0 0 8 88 74 81 82 66 74 +7 0.00 0.0 0 0 9 84 69 77 82 66 74 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 10 82 65 74 82 66 74 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 82 67 75 82 66 74 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 84 65 75 82 66 74 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 13 86 69 78 82 66 74 +4 0.00 0.0 0 0 14 88 73 81 82 66 74 +7 trace 0.0 0 0 15 86 72 79 82 66 74 +5 0.64 0.0 0 0 16 91 70 81 82 66 74 +7 0.01 0.0 0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Are the figures below consistent with your assertions above? JUN-12 FOR ISLIP, NY (85') LAT=40.8N LON= 73.1W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 72 58 65 72 55 64 +1 trace 0.0 0 0 2 78 61 70 73 56 64 +6 1.31 0.0 0 0 3 78 55 67 73 56 65 +2 0.06 0.0 0 0 4 64 53 59 73 56 65 -6 trace 0.0 0 6 5 66 51 59 74 57 65 -6 trace 0.0 0 6 6 70 49 60 74 57 66 -6 0.00 0.0 0 5 7 74 57 66 74 57 66 +0 0.02 0.0 0 0 8 81 56 69 75 58 66 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 9 76 62 69 75 58 67 +2 trace 0.0 0 0 10 82 62 72 75 59 67 +5 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 72 63 68 75 59 67 +1 0.01 0.0 0 0 12 72 63 68 76 59 68 +0 0.57 0.0 0 0 13 67 64 66 76 60 68 -2 1.75 0.0 0 0 14 73 56 65 76 60 68 -3 trace 0.0 0 0 15 78 55 67 77 60 68 -1 0.00 0.0 0 0 16 77 56 67 77 61 69 -2 0.00 0.0 0 0 17 68 54 61 77 61 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 18 68 54 61 78 61 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 19 72 60 66 78 62 70 -4 0.00 0.0 0 0 20 91 66 79 78 62 70 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 21 95 77 86 78 62 70 +16 0.00 0.0 0 0 22 94 70 82 79 62 71 +11 0.62 0.0 0 0 23 85 66 76 79 63 71 +5 0.13 0.0 0 0 24 82 63 73 79 63 71 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 25 75 59 67 79 63 71 -4 4.14 0.0 0 0 26 73 56 65 80 64 72 -7 0.00 0.0 0 0 27 82 58 70 80 64 72 -2 0.00 0.0 0 0 28 86 59 73 80 64 72 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 29 93 69 81 80 64 72 +9 0.19 0.0 0 0 30 93 70 82 80 64 72 +10 0.00 0.0 0 0 JUL-12 FOR ISLIP, NY (85') LAT=40.8N LON= 73.1W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 89 69 79 81 65 73 +6 0.03 0.0 0 0 2 86 66 76 81 65 73 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 3 86 64 75 81 65 73 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 4 84 71 78 81 65 73 +5 0.13 0.0 0 0 5 91 72 82 81 65 73 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 6 87 68 78 81 65 73 +5 0.00 0.0 0 0 7 95 74 85 81 66 73 +12 trace 0.0 0 0 8 88 74 81 82 66 74 +7 0.00 0.0 0 0 9 84 69 77 82 66 74 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 10 82 65 74 82 66 74 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 82 67 75 82 66 74 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 84 65 75 82 66 74 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 13 86 69 78 82 66 74 +4 0.00 0.0 0 0 14 88 73 81 82 66 74 +7 trace 0.0 0 0 15 86 72 79 82 66 74 +5 0.64 0.0 0 0 16 91 70 81 82 66 74 +7 0.01 0.0 0 0 Islip has gotten nailed more than SW suffolk i think, many of the storms have slipped south further east...in his defense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Are the figures below consistent with your assertions above? JUN-12 FOR ISLIP, NY (85') LAT=40.8N LON= 73.1W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 72 58 65 72 55 64 +1 trace 0.0 0 0 2 78 61 70 73 56 64 +6 1.31 0.0 0 0 3 78 55 67 73 56 65 +2 0.06 0.0 0 0 4 64 53 59 73 56 65 -6 trace 0.0 0 6 5 66 51 59 74 57 65 -6 trace 0.0 0 6 6 70 49 60 74 57 66 -6 0.00 0.0 0 5 7 74 57 66 74 57 66 +0 0.02 0.0 0 0 8 81 56 69 75 58 66 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 9 76 62 69 75 58 67 +2 trace 0.0 0 0 10 82 62 72 75 59 67 +5 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 72 63 68 75 59 67 +1 0.01 0.0 0 0 12 72 63 68 76 59 68 +0 0.57 0.0 0 0 13 67 64 66 76 60 68 -2 1.75 0.0 0 0 14 73 56 65 76 60 68 -3 trace 0.0 0 0 15 78 55 67 77 60 68 -1 0.00 0.0 0 0 16 77 56 67 77 61 69 -2 0.00 0.0 0 0 17 68 54 61 77 61 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 18 68 54 61 78 61 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 19 72 60 66 78 62 70 -4 0.00 0.0 0 0 20 91 66 79 78 62 70 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 21 95 77 86 78 62 70 +16 0.00 0.0 0 0 22 94 70 82 79 62 71 +11 0.62 0.0 0 0 23 85 66 76 79 63 71 +5 0.13 0.0 0 0 24 82 63 73 79 63 71 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 25 75 59 67 79 63 71 -4 4.14 0.0 0 0 26 73 56 65 80 64 72 -7 0.00 0.0 0 0 27 82 58 70 80 64 72 -2 0.00 0.0 0 0 28 86 59 73 80 64 72 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 29 93 69 81 80 64 72 +9 0.19 0.0 0 0 30 93 70 82 80 64 72 +10 0.00 0.0 0 0 JUL-12 FOR ISLIP, NY (85') LAT=40.8N LON= 73.1W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 89 69 79 81 65 73 +6 0.03 0.0 0 0 2 86 66 76 81 65 73 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 3 86 64 75 81 65 73 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 4 84 71 78 81 65 73 +5 0.13 0.0 0 0 5 91 72 82 81 65 73 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 6 87 68 78 81 65 73 +5 0.00 0.0 0 0 7 95 74 85 81 66 73 +12 trace 0.0 0 0 8 88 74 81 82 66 74 +7 0.00 0.0 0 0 9 84 69 77 82 66 74 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 10 82 65 74 82 66 74 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 82 67 75 82 66 74 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 84 65 75 82 66 74 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 13 86 69 78 82 66 74 +4 0.00 0.0 0 0 14 88 73 81 82 66 74 +7 trace 0.0 0 0 15 86 72 79 82 66 74 +5 0.64 0.0 0 0 16 91 70 81 82 66 74 +7 0.01 0.0 0 0 i know that islip has done ALOT better than me as far as severe weather i may be only like 5 miles away to the west, but precip wise were the same. severe weather wise and getting a great storm they do better, ive watched a few storms that produce hail before it gets to me weaken and not produce nothing and when it passes restrengthen when it passes east and go strong/severe again. example, i think it was 4th july week when we had a storm come through and wasnt nothing here but as it moved east it showed 2.25 inch hail core on my granalyst, i didnt see nowhere close to that. im not blowing smoke up anybody's wazoo, im just saying east/west of my area there have been reports of severe weather, wind, hail etc. i just havent seen none of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Neither have I. I reckon that most individual locations haven't seen any severe thunderstorm conditions in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Right and that's why its silly to get your hopes up for any particular event but also why its not fair to call bust if you don't see hail or damaging winds in your backyard. And at the end of the day the weather doesn't have a vendetta against any specific locale so complaining does no good either :-) Neither have I. I reckon that most individual locations haven't seen any severe thunderstorm conditions in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Neither have I. I reckon that most individual locations haven't seen any severe thunderstorm conditions in a while. How can that be? Jersey shore on south has gotten slammed multiple times, Long Island has gotten hit pretty hard, Southern CT/Westchester slammed this weekend...so pretty much just NE NJ and the 5 boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Islip has gotten nailed more than SW suffolk i think, many of the storms have slipped south further east...in his defense Noted, but see the results for the co-op site at Farmingdale, practically in his back yard (though July so far hasn't been a good month there). JUN-12 FOR FARMINGDALE, NY (131') LAT=40.7N LON= 73.4W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 71 57 64 73 55 64 +0 0.11 0.0 0 1 2 77 62 70 73 56 64 +6 1.49 0.0 0 0 3 76 55 66 73 56 65 +1 0.13 0.0 0 0 4 63 52 58 74 56 65 -7 0.09 0.0 0 7 5 65 50 58 74 57 65 -7 trace 0.0 0 7 6 68 50 59 74 57 66 -7 0.00 0.0 0 6 7 73 59 66 75 57 66 +0 trace 0.0 0 0 8 80 57 69 75 57 66 +3 trace 0.0 0 0 9 76 64 70 75 58 67 +3 trace 0.0 0 0 10 81 64 73 76 58 67 +6 trace 0.0 0 0 11 72 63 68 76 58 67 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 73 63 68 76 59 68 +0 0.65 0.0 0 0 13 67 64 66 77 59 68 -2 1.44 0.0 0 0 14 71 58 65 77 59 68 -3 0.00 0.0 0 0 15 76 55 66 77 60 69 -3 0.00 0.0 0 0 16 76 56 66 78 60 69 -3 0.00 0.0 0 0 17 68 54 61 78 60 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 18 66 54 60 78 61 70 -10 0.00 0.0 0 5 19 72 59 66 79 61 70 -4 0.00 0.0 0 0 20 91 67 79 79 61 70 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 21 95 79 87 79 62 71 +16 0.00 0.0 0 0 22 93 69 81 80 62 71 +10 1.47 0.0 0 0 23 84 66 75 80 62 71 +4 0.13 0.0 0 0 24 80 63 72 80 63 71 +1 0.08 0.0 0 0 25 75 60 68 80 63 72 -4 1.38 0.0 0 0 26 72 55 64 81 63 72 -8 0.00 0.0 0 1 27 82 62 72 81 64 72 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 28 85 65 75 81 64 73 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 29 93 69 81 81 64 73 +8 0.14 0.0 0 0 30 92 75 84 81 65 73 +11 0.00 0.0 0 0 JUL-12 FOR FARMINGDALE, NY (131') LAT=40.7N LON= 73.4W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 88 71 80 82 65 73 +7 0.06 0.0 0 0 2 86 66 76 82 65 73 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 3 87 69 78 82 65 74 +4 0.00 0.0 0 0 4 85 71 78 82 66 74 +4 0.07 0.0 0 0 5 91 73 82 82 66 74 +8 0.00 0.0 0 0 6 85 68 77 82 66 74 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 7 95 74 85 82 66 74 +11 0.03 0.0 0 0 8 86 73 80 83 67 75 +5 0.14 0.0 0 0 9 83 69 76 83 67 75 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 10 82 68 75 83 67 75 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 81 68 75 83 67 75 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 82 66 74 83 67 75 -1 0.00 0.0 0 0 13 85 71 78 83 67 75 +3 trace 0.0 0 0 14 86 73 80 83 67 75 +5 trace 0.0 0 0 15 85 72 79 83 68 75 +4 0.17 0.0 0 0 16 91 70 81 83 68 75 +6 0.00 0.0 0 0 http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Farmingdale,+NY&hl=en&ll=40.73269,-73.444977&spn=0.390235,0.615921&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=51.708931,78.837891&oq=farmin&hnear=Farmingdale,+Nassau,+New+York&t=m&z=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Noted, but see the results for the co-op site at Farmingdale, practically in his back yard (though July so far hasn't been a good month there). JUN-12 FOR FARMINGDALE, NY (131') LAT=40.7N LON= 73.4W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 71 57 64 73 55 64 +0 0.11 0.0 0 1 2 77 62 70 73 56 64 +6 1.49 0.0 0 0 3 76 55 66 73 56 65 +1 0.13 0.0 0 0 4 63 52 58 74 56 65 -7 0.09 0.0 0 7 5 65 50 58 74 57 65 -7 trace 0.0 0 7 6 68 50 59 74 57 66 -7 0.00 0.0 0 6 7 73 59 66 75 57 66 +0 trace 0.0 0 0 8 80 57 69 75 57 66 +3 trace 0.0 0 0 9 76 64 70 75 58 67 +3 trace 0.0 0 0 10 81 64 73 76 58 67 +6 trace 0.0 0 0 11 72 63 68 76 58 67 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 73 63 68 76 59 68 +0 0.65 0.0 0 0 13 67 64 66 77 59 68 -2 1.44 0.0 0 0 14 71 58 65 77 59 68 -3 0.00 0.0 0 0 15 76 55 66 77 60 69 -3 0.00 0.0 0 0 16 76 56 66 78 60 69 -3 0.00 0.0 0 0 17 68 54 61 78 60 69 -8 0.00 0.0 0 4 18 66 54 60 78 61 70 -10 0.00 0.0 0 5 19 72 59 66 79 61 70 -4 0.00 0.0 0 0 20 91 67 79 79 61 70 +9 0.00 0.0 0 0 21 95 79 87 79 62 71 +16 0.00 0.0 0 0 22 93 69 81 80 62 71 +10 1.47 0.0 0 0 23 84 66 75 80 62 71 +4 0.13 0.0 0 0 24 80 63 72 80 63 71 +1 0.08 0.0 0 0 25 75 60 68 80 63 72 -4 1.38 0.0 0 0 26 72 55 64 81 63 72 -8 0.00 0.0 0 1 27 82 62 72 81 64 72 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 28 85 65 75 81 64 73 +2 0.00 0.0 0 0 29 93 69 81 81 64 73 +8 0.14 0.0 0 0 30 92 75 84 81 65 73 +11 0.00 0.0 0 0 JUL-12 FOR FARMINGDALE, NY (131') LAT=40.7N LON= 73.4W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 88 71 80 82 65 73 +7 0.06 0.0 0 0 2 86 66 76 82 65 73 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 3 87 69 78 82 65 74 +4 0.00 0.0 0 0 4 85 71 78 82 66 74 +4 0.07 0.0 0 0 5 91 73 82 82 66 74 +8 0.00 0.0 0 0 6 85 68 77 82 66 74 +3 0.00 0.0 0 0 7 95 74 85 82 66 74 +11 0.03 0.0 0 0 8 86 73 80 83 67 75 +5 0.14 0.0 0 0 9 83 69 76 83 67 75 +1 0.00 0.0 0 0 10 82 68 75 83 67 75 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 11 81 68 75 83 67 75 +0 0.00 0.0 0 0 12 82 66 74 83 67 75 -1 0.00 0.0 0 0 13 85 71 78 83 67 75 +3 trace 0.0 0 0 14 86 73 80 83 67 75 +5 trace 0.0 0 0 15 85 72 79 83 68 75 +4 0.17 0.0 0 0 16 91 70 81 83 68 75 +6 0.00 0.0 0 0 http://maps.google.c...w York&t=m&z=11 im not gonna contradict this record, but as i said all around me there has been alot more action than in my location. to you it sounds like its in my backyard being its only a few miles away. im not good with dates of when severe weather occured but this season storms have slammed farmingdale ( west of me by 5-6 miles ) and ive gotten nothing in comparison to them. hell ive actually had hail/wind reports west of rt.231 in west islip/deer park pretty much less than a mile west than me and when the cell got to me. heavy downpour, some lightning, thunder for a few minutes and that was it and the sun was out too oddly. i know this seems crazy but its true, everything good has collapsed this year for me. rainfall, yea im on par, but does not show the desparity for severe weather though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 im not gonna contradict this record, but as i said all around me there has been alot more action than in my location. to you it sounds like its in my backyard being its only a few miles away. im not good with dates of when severe weather occured but this season storms have slammed farmingdale ( west of me by 5-6 miles ) and ive gotten nothing in comparison to them. hell ive actually had hail/wind reports west of rt.231 in west islip/deer park pretty much less than a mile west than me and when the cell got to me. heavy downpour, some lightning, thunder for a few minutes and that was it and the sun was out too oddly. i know this seems crazy but its true, everything good has collapsed this year for me. rainfall, yea im on par, but does not show the desparity for severe weather though Ok bro, listen, you had severe weather a mile from your house? Come on...quit complaining about long island not getting severe...a mile from your house counts in my book! Your neighborhood may be built on a magnetic field who knows. BTW Diego, FMG numbers always seem way too low to me...having lived in melville for 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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