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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Forgive me for complaining about a wonderful series of thunderstorms last night, but I always feel storms at night are a waste of a good storm! You can't really see the heavy rains and dark clouds... yes the lightning during the night is wonderful, but overall I'd much prefer a good, strong thunderstorm during the day than at night.

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Guest Pamela

Forgive me for complaining about a wonderful series of thunderstorms last night, but I always feel storms at night are a waste of a good storm! You can't really see the heavy rains and dark clouds... yes the lightning during the night is wonderful, but overall I'd much prefer a good, strong thunderstorm during the day than at night.

Over the interior most t-storms take place during the daytime; along the coast the pattern is reversed and the majority occur at night...

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I'm not sure that we have a good enough trigger, but RAP data is showing some pretty unstable air later this afternoon with decent CAPE and shear, right up into central and even portions of northern NJ, including NYC metro.

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I'm not sure that we have a good enough trigger, but RAP data is showing some pretty unstable air later this afternoon with decent CAPE and shear, right up into central and even portions of northern NJ, including NYC metro.

rgem likes activity, but i agree, trigger is tough to come by unless there is a vort somewhere in the flow

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Guess it's old news now but here's one of the photos I got of the mammatus in Brick, NJ last night. I'm kicking myself for not even knowing the storm was coming and thus missing the shelf rolling in (I didn't evensee it, gah!) I also have some video from the storm that I'll have to get together.

BTW, we got power back at around 11AM Sunday.

NzlXt.jpg

EDIT: here's the video

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I was in Lavallette for the storm that hit on Saturday and it looks like we were right in the worst of it. The storm was one of the best I've ever seen and the winds were some of the strongest I've ever seen (report out of Toms River just to the west of gusts to 75 mph). The lightning was also constant and there were some very close strikes. Power was out from late Saturday night until about 1:45 PM yesterday because lightning apparently hit a substation. I was staying at our friends' beach house right on the ocean so I got some nice pics and videos of it:

Here's a video I took of the gust front as it came through:

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At the end there was a full rainbow out on the ocean with lightning strikes all around it:

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And there were also some pretty nice mammatus clouds well after the storm passed:

552382_4179838174992_442237956_n.jpg

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I was in Lavallette for the storm that hit on Saturday and it looks like we were right in the worst of it. The storm was one of the best I've ever seen and the winds were some of the strongest I've ever seen (report out of Toms River just to the west of gusts to 75 mph). The lightning was also constant and there were some very close strikes. Power was out from late Saturday night until about 1:45 PM yesterday because lightning apparently hit a substation. I was staying at our friends' beach house right on the ocean so I got some nice pics and videos of it:

Here's a video I took of the gust front as it came through:

Wow, great pics and video!

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The SPC SREF severe weather probabilities are lighting up for tomorrow afternoon -- with marginal shear at best. Should be interesting to watch unfold...I'd imagine with the lack of shear and high moisture we could see some heavy rain over certain areas with slow moving storms as well.

SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f036.gif

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The SPC SREF severe weather probabilities are lighting up for tomorrow afternoon -- with marginal shear at best. Should be interesting to watch unfold...I'd imagine with the lack of shear and high moisture we could see some heavy rain over certain areas with slow moving storms as well.

SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f036.gif

It sure looks like the best chances will be north and west, the GFS right now is the only model wanting to indicate the boundary will be far enough S and E for the coast to get in on the action. And of course given its lower resolution and tendency in summer to want to push these troughs east too fast probably means the NAM and SPC WRF's indication of most activity being back over Upstate NY and N-C PA may be right. The W-SW steering flow is also a bit unfavorable for the immediate NYC metro, we usually do best with a NW steering since in a W-SW setup you're relying on getting storms into the area from C-NJ and for whatever reason storms never seem to like firing in that area as much as they do over NW NJ or SE NY.

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Question for you all:

I was reading the AFD last night and it mentioned that there was less lightning potential today due to the "very warm environment"...why is this?

Not sure how much truth there is to just the basic explanation of a "very warm environment" has less lightning potential. I'll let the pros take that one on.

Right now, any cell that can pop-off 50+dBZ is producing some decent lightning.

LGHTNG.png

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