NYCSuburbs Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 2 days ago most models kept the storms mostly over SNE... at this rate even NYC is barely in the northern edge of the storms. Some isolated storms will probably make it into N NJ but the core is clearly staying to the south/SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 These are riding along the 588 dm line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 So bluewave what your showing is the storms arw gonna miss us to the south again? Or will we have a better shot at seeing storms again around 6-7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 This is one of the most up to date and reliable free radars out there - some of those other radars are overdone - looks like the bulk of the t- storms is south southwest of the NYC metro - looks like we are going to be on the northern fringe - severe is looking less likely around here http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 That one cell has basically taken over...everything else is just weak shower activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I though OkX radar would be a little more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The watch will be taken down any time now!!! Like I said a couple of hours the spc basically said in there disco this afternoon the NYC metro would only see isolated storms they did not expect the first batch to weaken the way they did but trials said I was wrong and just a weather weenie when I posted before but I guess we see who was wrong!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The severe threat is slowly decreasing for the nyc metro area. Because the area was affected by the decaying MCS from earlier the cloud debris limited the instability. Not only that but we have too much shear and not enough of a well developed cold pool. Without a well developed cold pool the shear will tear the storms apart, because the lack of an erect updraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Bust for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 That first batch was not even severe and yes it was supposed to weaken....and why is everybody so touchy today :-) The watch will be taken down any time now!!! Like I said a couple of hours the spc basically said in there disco this afternoon the NYC metro would only see isolated storms they did not expect the first batch to weaken the way they did but trials said I was wrong and just a weather weenie when I posted before but I guess we see who was wrong!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The watch will be taken down any time now!!! Like I said a couple of hours the spc basically said in there disco this afternoon the NYC metro would only see isolated storms they did not expect the first batch to weaken the way they did but trials said I was wrong and just a weather weenie when I posted before but I guess we see who was wrong!!!!! Are you 2 years old? Calm down and actually add something to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 maybe they'll get it right and issue the next one soon for central and south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Impressive wind signature over Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Consulation for those for suffered with the more extensive heat and humidity today in central and southern NJ (if they hold up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Wow, the CAPE values for NYC on east really has crapped the bed. Less than 500 j/kg now. That hazy, filtered sun coupled with the mid-level clouds caused from an earlier t-storm complex really took a toll on instability this afternoon, no matter how high the temps and dew points are. It's pretty disappointing that we couldn't take advantage of 50 knots of bulk shear. When we lacked strong 700 mb flow and shear during the last three potential severe episodes which produced almost nothing for us, we did have good CAPE, decent lapse rates and good convergence. We never get the best of both worlds it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Going to be close for me in monouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 thank god that t storm moving into NJ from PA will just graze me, some thunder now with wind but looks like most if not all will pass just to the west and southwest of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 cells firing and going into northern fairfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Took this gorgeous shelf cloud shot just south of Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 cells firing and going into northern fairfield I think you mean cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I think you mean cell. its two separate on radar scope with a third coming in now and one coming into Litchfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Storm incoming here. Under a warning for it; doesn't look that impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks pretty nice to me. I'm amazed at how dark it is up my way considering all the activity is so far to the south (other than that little cell that fired up northeast of me) Storm incoming here. Under a warning for it; doesn't look that impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Storm incoming here. Under a warning for it; doesn't look that impressive on radar. If your in that cell over Monmouth and Ocean Counties, it is impressive. Getting a lot of wind damage reports out of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yep, and it's intensified. It's crazy how much this area has been in the jackpot zone these past 2 summers. MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ- 730 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN OCEAN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES... AT 727 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIX FLAGS THEME PARK...OR 16 MILES EAST OF TRENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CASSVILLE...WOODRUFF AND JACKSONS MILLS BY 735 PM EDT... If your in that cell over Monmouth and Ocean Counties, it is impressive. Getting a lot of wind damage reports out of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 nope, you already said there was no threat later because this MCS couldn't survive this airmass. Whatever that meant. whatever = correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Yep - Wow - great year for T-storms here. Power's out. Intense lightning/thunder, gusted to 40mph. Have pics of awesome shelf clouds. Hvy rain for about 10 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 storms hitting the areas that had the greatest instablity all day, not suprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 whatever = correct you said multiple things none of which made any sense. Congratulations on on whatever you think you are correct about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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