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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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This is one of the most up to date and reliable free radars out there - some of those other radars are overdone - looks like the bulk of the t- storms is south southwest of the NYC metro - looks like we are going to be on the northern fringe - severe is looking less likely around here

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999

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The watch will be taken down any time now!!! Like I said a couple of hours the spc basically said in there disco this afternoon the NYC metro would only see isolated storms they did not expect the first batch to weaken the way they did but trials said I was wrong and just a weather weenie when I posted before but I guess we see who was wrong!!!!!

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The severe threat is slowly decreasing for the nyc metro area. Because the area was affected by the decaying MCS from earlier the cloud debris limited the instability. Not only that but we have too much shear and not enough of a well developed cold pool. Without a well developed cold pool the shear will tear the storms apart, because the lack of an erect updraft.

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That first batch was not even severe and yes it was supposed to weaken....and why is everybody so touchy today :-)

The watch will be taken down any time now!!! Like I said a couple of hours the spc basically said in there disco this afternoon the NYC metro would only see isolated storms they did not expect the first batch to weaken the way they did but trials said I was wrong and just a weather weenie when I posted before but I guess we see who was wrong!!!!!

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The watch will be taken down any time now!!! Like I said a couple of hours the spc basically said in there disco this afternoon the NYC metro would only see isolated storms they did not expect the first batch to weaken the way they did but trials said I was wrong and just a weather weenie when I posted before but I guess we see who was wrong!!!!!

Are you 2 years old? Calm down and actually add something to the discussion.

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Wow, the CAPE values for NYC on east really has crapped the bed. Less than 500 j/kg now. That hazy, filtered sun coupled with the mid-level clouds caused from an earlier t-storm complex really took a toll on instability this afternoon, no matter how high the temps and dew points are.

It's pretty disappointing that we couldn't take advantage of 50 knots of bulk shear. When we lacked strong 700 mb flow and shear during the last three potential severe episodes which produced almost nothing for us, we did have good CAPE, decent lapse rates and good convergence. We never get the best of both worlds it seems like.

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Yep, and it's intensified. It's crazy how much this area has been in the jackpot zone these past 2 summers.

MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-

730 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT

FOR NORTHWESTERN OCEAN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

AT 727 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIX FLAGS THEME PARK...OR 16 MILES EAST

OF TRENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

CASSVILLE...WOODRUFF AND JACKSONS MILLS BY 735 PM EDT...

If your in that cell over Monmouth and Ocean Counties, it is impressive. Getting a lot of wind damage reports out of those areas.

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