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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Once the cold front approaches, that should be enough lift to break our CAP.

dutchess county storm moving into conneticut just keeps getting bigger its almost at the 50,000 ft mark

if the cold front sparks off storms like this near us i think we'll see some pretty intense weather in the next few hours

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If it makes that right hand turn, that can be indicative of a supercell.

maybe but like the dutchess cell it moved east then dropped southeast when it got to conneticut. so we'll see in the next 20-30 minutes what it gonna do...it is now growing and expanding and moving ESE looks like

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maybe but like the dutchess cell it moved east then dropped southeast when it got to conneticut. so we'll see in the next 20-30 minutes what it gonna do...it is now growing and expanding and moving ESE looks like

That thing in CT is almost definitely a supercell. I'm not sure if the cell in Rockland is a supercell or multicell...that new echo just east of the cell can mean a multicell (a new updraft to help sustain the cell), but it's starting to make the right hand turn, so I think it's transitioning now.

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That thing in CT is almost definitely a supercell. I'm not sure if the cell in Rockland is a supercell or multicell...that new echo just east of the cell can mean a multicell (a new updraft to help sustain the cell), but it's starting to make the right hand turn, so I think it's transitioning soon.

yea absolutely. its gonna make that abrupt right soon and it'll be warned shortly trust me

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NORTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUFFERN...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO POMONA...MONSEY...NANUET...NEW CITY...PEARL RIVER...HAVERSTRAW... TAPPAN...ORANGEBURG...NORWOOD...UPPER NYACK...NYACK...OSSINING... WHITE PLAINS...TARRYTOWN...SCARSDALE...NORTH TARRYTOWN... HAWTHORNE...HARRISON AND DOBBS FERRY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

that cell south of litchfield now is producing almost a 3.5 inch hail core, WOW! thats insane

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yea i think its gonna miss us to the north unless it doesnt make that right turn or quickly grow FAST!

We've still got plenty of time for more convection. Until that cell makes the right hand turn, it still looks multicellular...

I'm actually in Rockville Centre now btw. (Not New Brunswick)

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Wondering if we can get updrafts along a sea breeze front, too. This could be an active day for CT and LI.

that cell is gonna miss the island to the north even the north shore looks like according to the current trajectory. what do you think the chances of getting these updrafts are for us?

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