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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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The stuff in PA was supposed to fall apart. It was headed towards heavily capped air and weak instability, and crappy ML lapse rates. It went way out ahead of the instability tongue.

The stronger tongue of instability will advect eastward as time goes on. And we'll also have to watch for sea breeze boundaries close to the coast. With the instability and strong mid level flow, we can certainly see bowing segments and thus strong winds.

SPC updated disco to the current watch highlighted potential of sea breeze and remnant boundary from the earlier cluster could kick of new segments near NYC and the shore

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Getting a tad bit discouraged here on the island. Radar not blossoming in NE PA, and SE NY. There is a big temp difference here on the island and tristate compared to central PA. Also, central PA has more instability to work with compared to here, because of the full sun.

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